The Annual Football Predictions Blog 2021/22

The Annual Premier League Predictions Blog 2021/22

Last season, between Roger and me, we managed to pretty much forecast an accurate picture of how we felt last season would end. There were obviously the glaring mistakes, but in general we did okay, especially considering we guessed our own teams’ finishing positions spot on, which is both excellent and a little bit sad.

In the twelve months since that blog; Spurs have lost their arsehole and Everton’s manager proved to be an arsehole and now both teams start a new season with new managers and little optimism. Liverpool have lost their World Heritage standing, mainly because of the proposed Everton stadium at the docks and Spurs lost £200million in unrecoverable income and fell, like a stone, out of the top four and back into mid-table mediocrity. If the Toffees learn anything from this season, it’s likely to be two-fold: 1) don’t waste your money and years of the club’s time building a new stadium and 2) don’t employ your biggest rival’s ex-manager, possibly a few years after his peak. The similarities with Spurs are never-ending…

So… how do we see the forthcoming season unfolding? Personally, and I expect Roger feels the same way, the enthusiasm, optimism and hope we’ve both had at times over the last decade has almost completely disappeared and the prospect of another long and potentially boring season is very real. Here’s what I think:

1^st: Man City – especially if they sign Kane and Grealish. I don’t really have a problem with Citeh the way I do United or Chelsea, Arsenal or Liverpool, but they’re proving that there’s no longer such a thing as a level playing field and I expect they will run away with the title this season, even without world class additions.

2^nd: Chelsea – I don’t care where they finish as long as they don’t win any more trophies. The Poor Man’s Man City is a dislikeable bunch of worthless cunts and I’d like to see them lose every match they play in. They have overtaken Arsenal in my personal hatred charts.

3^rd: Man Utd – the Manchester dominance won’t continue, just. Good signings, Ole getting the hang of managing a proper side and the ability to grind out enough results to keep them in touch with the real challengers. They’re never going to be what they were, at least not in my lifetime. Still good enough to stay in the top 4 for the foreseeable future.

4^th: Liverpool – and so the top four is a repeat of last year. Liverpool peaked eighteen months ago and have been overtaken by at least three teams; plus not a huge amount has happened on the transfer front – running to stand still. Might win a cup.

5^th: Leicester – knocking on the door again and will be unlucky not to break into the top 4; will suffer from their usual slumps at the most inconvenient times.

6^th: There will be quite a gap between 5^th and 6^th and for the first time in years I’m hard pressed to see a finishing order for the lower European places. West Ham are in the Europa; Spurs are in the Conference, Aston Villa have reinforced extremely well, but lost Grealish and Everton are again in transition and likely to play extremely dull football to grind out results; so who is going to finish 6^th? Let’s have a punt on Leeds United. No Europe, good recruitment, top manager. I see a big improvement coming.

7^th: Spurs – it pains me to forecast them so far down the table, but this is as optimistic as I can get. I like Nuno Espirito Santo; I think he’s a nice guy. I don’t expect he’ll see two years out, especially if Pochettino continues to be linked with a return (although that depends on how far Spurs fall). I also suspect Spurs will get through to the Europa Conference final – whether they win it or not is another matter. It is a horrible time to be a fan of this team. They have plummeted from contenders to has-beens in the space of two seasons and that has been largely down to ENIC’s failure to invest in players when they were needed and then being kicked in the teeth by COVID when they were ready to make themselves lots of cash from the new stadium, American football, rock concerts and boxing matches – football was always going to be low down that list, now… Levy needs to spend some of those billions squirrelled away or simply sell up and get a progressive owner in. Sad times but some encouraging signings and the promise of getting rid of more deadwood and bringing a few youngsters through. As long as we’re entertaining and challenging in a couple of cups, I don’t mind a season of low expectations.

8^th: Everton – I expect the same from the perennial underachievers of the 21^st Century. Benitez’s appointment is likely to be as successful as Mourinho at Spurs or anyone at Celtic at the moment, which is damning but also probably accurate. Their season was probably summed up the other morning when Rafa said that James Rodriguez was surplus to requirements and should look for another club. This is their only world class footballer and for a club mired in a child sex abuse scandal with one of their other senior players, I expect things will only get worse before they ever get better…

9^th: Arsenal – they are in more of a decline than Spurs. The manager will be sacked by Christmas and it will be an uphill struggle from then on.

10^th: West Ham – the Europa League will do them. A return to mediocrity.

11^th: Aston Villa – even without Grealish they’re still almost capable of top half; it’s whether their signings are as good as they’re believed to be. It’s a tough league for the top 10 and they might just miss out.

12^th: Crystal Palace – this will be seen as an improvement and a step in the right direction for new boss Patrick Vierra.

13^th: Wolves – new manager, poor recruitment; one wonders what the owners are thinking. Probably enough to stay out of trouble.

14^th: Southampton – the end of Hassenhutl and a season of struggle.

15^th: Brentford – a valiant effort, will shock many teams at home; will do more than enough to survive.

16^th: Brighton – Graham Potter is touted as a great upcoming manager; Brighton will play nice football and still struggle all season.

17^th: Newcastle – skin of their arses time. Bruce will somehow manage to keep his job all season.

18^th: Burnley – Dyche’s swansong? It’s time this team’s luck ran out.

19^th: Norwich – as doomed as they were last time; likely to have lost their best players by the time the season really gets going.

20^th: Watford – doomed. End of.

 

FA Cup: Rotherham

League Cup: Wycombe

Champions League: Lokomotiv Plovdiv

Europa League: Wales

Europa Conference: The Moldovan Figure Skating Movement.

 

And now for Roger’s effort. I call it an effort although he didn’t put much into it. However, where I have eschewed humour for a more serious approach this season, he’s filled in the void left…

***

I can't remember being less enthusiatic about a new football season than for the forthcoming round of predictable fare, for, well forever. My lot have finally had FFP caught up with them, and after 5 years and now 6 managers, the ability to spend has been severely curtailed by the regulations. In a close season when the usual suspects continue to spaff cash at players without a care in the world, Everton, once a big club in the increasingly dim distant past, are now going to be slugging it out for a top half finish with the also-rans.

 

The way FFP "works", it seems to me to be a fairly pointless exercise as the gap between the Big Six and the rest gets ever wider, making bridging that gap more and more difficult for once big players like Everton. I am coming to the conclusion that the Euro Super League thing should be allowed to go ahead. At least it would give our league some genuine excitement. Still, it could be worse, I could support the Cobblers.

1st - Man Utd - Look, it would be too easy to say Citeh, again. Utd have spaffed well, and I fancy them to give it a right go.

2nd - Man City - They have probably spaffed in fine fashion too, but I can't be bothered to check. Even real Citeh fans must be getting bored by now, surely?

3rd - Chelsea - That Tuchel fella looks like he knows what he's doing. I fancy Roman to blow his face off with a sawn-off shotgun as the culmination of a bloodbath in Knightsbridge.

4th - Leicester - This time, they'll get their noses in front of the Shite. He hopes....

5th - Liverpool - Fuckity fuckity fuck...

6th - Arsenal - With an average squad age of 13, the Gooners could find those late night matches hard to cope with. Expect them to be top at some point, and then lose 5 on the trot. As per normal, then.

7th/8th/9th/10th - Perm any combination of Spurs, Villa, Leeds, Everton. I'm afraid West Ham will slide back into the anonymous middle bit, now they've got away fixtures in Ulan Bator on Thursday nights to contend with.

This middle bit makes me want to go for a shit. I really don't care.

Will Brentford stay up? No. Neither will Watford or Narch.

The Cup - Aston Villa

League Cup - Aston Villa

Right... now to go and do something useful, like string my ukulele.

***

And that's all they wrote. Who will be closer to the truth? Last season it was just about a tie.

 

The End of Season Bash (part 2)

I want to make a point (again) about Leicester's participation in the Champions League next season, now that it is almost impossible not to happen.

I'm going to sound like every punter, ever, but with a fourth spot at Europe's top table under threat by resurgent Italians and the failure - en masse - of English teams in European competitions in recent years, there is a risk that inside three years, we could be 'relegated' to having just three Champions League participants (with the third place team having to go the play-off route). To stop this, we simply have to perform better in Europe than the Italians, especially next season, because if we fail again the co-efficients could well tip towards a fourth Italian side by the time the Champions League is revamped.

The Premier League, this season, has been a remarkably level playing field, which is why Leicester, Spurs and even West Ham have excelled way above expectations (and probably why Roberto Martinez will be sacked by Everton, because this talented side missed a big opportunity). It is still feasible, with Man City playing so erratically and Man Utd never guaranteed to turn up, that the Hammers could grab that fourth spot - a win against Arsenal would do lots of teams a favour. If next season England was represented by Leicester, Spurs, Arsenal and West Ham in the Champions League, then I'd bet my house that 99% of pundits would realistically say that only Arsenal stood a good chance of progressing from the group stage, based on European Cup history. You could argue that Spurs should, but the star-studded side under Harry Redknapp was a better bet on a European stage than the current side and Spurs' lack of real depth showed in their two limp defeats to Borussia Dortmund, who never looked like the side they did in the following round against Liverpool.

The Premier League might be the 'best' in the world in terms of excitement and entertainment, but it clearly no longer has club sides that are dominant throughout Europe. When Alex Ferguson retired it seemed to take the heart out of English clubs European dreams. I accept that's a facile generalisation, but there no longer seems to be the urgency about Europe there once was and that might be down to the money being generated, via television, for domestic football. This also might explain why world class footballers are still preferring Barcelona, Real Madrid, PSG and Bayern over any of our own rich clubs - because it's easier for these clubs to win big trophies now and there's less demand on them.

The Spanish League is, of the big guns, the most difficult to win outside of the Premier League. There are three teams that could win it every season, two of them are the Galacticos, while the other Madrid side punch above their weight every year. There are others capable of giving these teams 'a game', but you could forecast correctly every season by picking these three teams. Paris St German are the only team in their league; they have a squad to rival the Galacticos and are becoming a dominant force in Europe. Bayern's biggest rival is Dortmund, there are other good teams in the Bundesliga but essentially it's Bayern then the rest. These four teams should continue to dominate the Champions League because there are very few demands outside of it. In England we have schedules that kill competitions and it is obvious that the Europa League simply doesn't work for English clubs because of the over all money at stake, not the prize at the end. Champions League generates far more money and when you're a business, money tends to outweigh glory of a secondary nature.

Would England take the Europa League seriously if next season you had Man City, Man Utd, Southampton and say Everton in it? Would no European involvement help Chelsea and their new manager? Can Leicester do it again? Can they challenge for the title and play at the top table and hold their own? I'd say doubtful, as would others and historically there's evidence to suggest they could end up treating the Champions League like the Nordic clubs - as cash cow rather than a winnable competition - their participation in just six matches would bring considerable riches, even if that was the be all and end all of their European jaunt and it was never repeated.

However, in a world with a level playing field it isn't inconceivable that a team such as Southampton or Everton couldn't do very well in Europe; there is enough money to have bigger squads to combat the fatigue and mental catch up side of the game, but the demands of the domestic game have grown so important that comments made by Laurent Blanc - manager of PSG - ring true; he said that fatigue from a long season could play a major part in whether English clubs can do well in Europe and evidence over the last few years is they don't do well in Europe (unless its to the detriment of their league form). It is obvious that something needs to be done to help club fulfil their potential.

It's all well and good condemning English clubs failure while pointing at the money, the managers and the profile, but when you expect top class athletes to perform match after match to the highest of standards (and they don't) you have to realise that Mo Farrar doesn't run 10,000 metres, in gold winning medal time, every week, while kicking a ball in front of him.

It is also incredibly difficult to mould a squad team - most top clubs have their best sides and a few players who can interchange seamlessly, but start making wholesale changes and form starts to dip. Only Spurs this season have been able to rotate a lot of their players and not look much different; but it has been the rotations that have caused the biggest loss of points (not huge this season, but enough to make a difference). If you asked Mauricio Pochettino what his starting XI for the rest of the season is it wouldn't change (apart from maybe Vertonghen coming back). That's the side that almost won the Premier League and the push on they will need won't be signing star names, but holding onto who they have and signing a few equally as good players to slot in during injuries and suspensions. Most clubs don't really have good B teams - adequate, yes, but unlikely to sustain anything. So, if a club wants to take all competitions seriously, they have to play with teams they think will win and that means some players could end up involved in 60 matches in a season - do the maths, it's just too much to expect.

The question is does English football want to be champions of Europe again or is it happy living off its domestic laurels? It would seem the amount of money about to wash about has made the competitive edge wane. The league is still the important one and for six or seven teams now it will remain that way. Leicester will want to continue being a great side. Spurs won't be looking at a top four finish but a title challenge. West Ham will see the Olympic Stadium move as a bonus to continue the massive improvement under Slaven Bilic. Chelsea will expect their new manager to have instant impact and success. Guardiola's arrival at Man City throws open the possibility that some of the world class players who baulk at our league might be tempted. Arsenal and Man Utd will expect something extra and there's Liverpool to take into account; they have to improve at some point. It all adds up to a forthcoming season where winning the league again becomes the most important thing and with seven or eight clubs in the mix the cup competitions are going to be viewed as a hindrance rather than a bonus.

English domestic cups are utterly devalued, despite what pundits are paid to say; no one takes them too seriously until you get to the business end and even then, depending on what else your team is involved with, there is an element of lack of urgency about them. The League Cup causes problems even now, adding to a fixture list that many managers think is already too busy. One solution would be to revamp that competition but any major changes would be opposed because it carries a European place and without it the competition would be even more devalued. I'm sure that the managers of mid-table Premier League sides would argue it is one of their few ways of realistically winning a trophy, while teams always chasing bigger things will use the competition to keep fringe players happy - with the added bonus of extra game time and the chance to impress. If that fails, then no big loss, the players get a few midweek breaks. The fans would be more than happy with some silverware and they don't care how its got. I'm sure Wigan or Portsmouth fans would struggle to give back their FA Cup wins for a place struggling in the Premier League every season?

The problem is in the post-mortem; this season will have some fans of some clubs wondering if their commitments to cups was the reason they fell short. I'm talking, specifically Spurs and their one big chance of glory in 55 years and how it might not happen because of the club's earlier commitment to the cup competitions. Could some of those draws been wins? So next season, if Spurs are challenging again, could we see them treat the domestic cups with less respect? Part of me actually wants the answer to be yes. If Leicester get through to both cup quarter finals but end up in 7th because of the amount of games they played, will they be happy if the eight points they dropped meant 3rd rather than 7th? Cup quarter finalists are never remembered. If any club can win the league why risk the rewards of a top ten finish with a ultimately pointless cup run? I know it's all to do with pride and glory but some clubs know that will elude them so its really all about money.

The upshot is if England start to treat Europe like a purse rather than a winnable competition it devalues European football. Europe is unattractive without English participation - TV deals become insignificant when a big part of your desired audience isn't in it. So it ultimately isn't in UEFA's interests for England to drift out of European reckoning. The status quo might be restored next season - Arsenal, Chelsea, Man City and Man Utd might dominate with the pretenders back to scratching around for scraps, but if it isn't (and why should it?) then the draw of the Premier League's participation in Europe continues to be eroded because the fan bases of the new breed aren't in the league of the big money clubs and progression isn't assured.

It's a little like solving a conundrum within a puzzle within an enigma and one which every time I try and think of a workable solution I'm stymied by some different wrinkle. Whether it's about glory, money or progression, there is something or someone that will have to give to ensure that it has a fair chance of working and football chairmen are notorious for not giving an inch.

Way back when the Premier League was formed and it went from 22 teams to 20, some people were saying it should be just 16 teams, with one team relegated and one team involved in a play-off with the side finishing second in the lower league. The knock on effect is you'd now have a Premier League 2 with 20 teams, a Championship (League 1) with 24 teams and two regional League 1s (League 2) with 24 (or 20) teams each (the top six from the National league would automatically join the following season. This would immediately solve a fixture congestion for Premier League clubs, with eight games less. Can you imagine the opposition to it now if someone suggested that?

Cups will remain important to the fans of teams still in it at the arse end of the season, that will never change, but it could end up remaining a very fallow period for all of the wannabe league and European champions because there is a bigger prize now up for grabs.

It brings us back to Leicester in next season's Champions League. They will be a fourth ranked team, regardless of their champion status because they have no European form; getting out of a group with at least two top ranked sides is going to be a big ask for them and to be able to maintain the momentum from this season. It will be worse if they're drawn in a group with an Italian side. England will be lucky to get a good return in co-efficient points from the Champions League next season, so ultimately the euphoria of something different finally happening in the Premier League might end up devaluing our place in Europe.

A Week is a Long Time etc...

Let's be realistic about this - the 2015/16 season has been a revelation - it has shown us all something unique in modern football and the fact that my Spurs are 2nd, still, can be looked back on as a definite improvement, even if they end up in 4th or even 5th place. Yes, it will be devastating after a season of more ups than downs, but the future does appear to have Spurs firmly in its sights and thoughts.

Looking more like the only winners are Leicester City, who are looking so nailed on to win the unthinkable, they could have it wrapped up by the beginning of May, with a delicious irony being they go to Chelsea on the last day and would receive the customary guard of honour from the former champions.

As it stands, Leicester needs 13 points from 24 to guarantee Champions League football; every time the teams outside of the top 4 drop points that target gets smaller; they have to be long odds on to be playing at the big boys table next season and frankly a massive crash is the only thing that make that happen. Spurs need 18 from 24 just to guarantee Champions League football, but are now considered by the bookies to be Leicester's only viable rival. They sit five points behind with eight games to go; the simple fact is in those eight games, Spurs have to win TWO more than Leicester and those eight games might as well be eight grains of sand in an hourglass. The only way Leicester won't be writing their way into the history books is if they implode and start playing like Aston Villa.

You can imagine them already making their excuses for this year's success stories to fail next season: Leicester will, at best, return to mid-table mediocrity next season, especially with Champions League (should they get past the group stage). Spurs won't invest enough in players to sustain a challenge and an European adventure and West Ham are moving to a new stadium and this season's improvement is more down to the failings of the others. I'll bet they're already lining up a top 5 for next season featuring Man City, Chelsea, Arsenal, Man U and Liverpool - and most punters will place Spurs, Leicester, West Ham, possibly Everton (now they're richer than the Reds), Stoke and Southampton as the chasing pack. Logic dictates that's how it should be and as games run out, all that logic from all those pundits, is going to sound like Alan Hansen's 'You can't win anything with kids'.

Next season, if this one is anything to go by, could have 10 or 11 teams in the mix - everyone can still beat everyone else and just because Pep Guardiola, Jose Mourinho, Jurgen Klopp, Antonio Conte and possibly one or two other Galactico managers will be tyhrowing their weight against each other, what if Leicester (Claudio Ranieri), West Ham (Slaven Bilic), Tottenham (Mauricio Pochettino), Everton (Roberto Martinez or A.N. Other) can shake things up again next year? What's to stop a Watford (Sanchez Florez), or a Swansea (Guidolin), a promoted side or even Newcastle (The fat Spanish Waiter - if they survive) from throwing the 'form books' out of the window?

This might not be an exaggeration when I say the team that finishes 7th and won't play in European competition (by virtue of league finish) the following season will still pocket hundreds of millions of quids for TV and prize money - Bournemouth, by surviving, can afford to pay the same wages as Liverpool next season, if they choose to, and that means they attract players who would usually look at Bournemouth and shudder or laugh - because some footballers go where the money is.

The playing field in the Premier League has been levelled more than a little - just look at some of the players Stoke have. Top players will still want to go to the top clubs, but if the top clubs don't want them...

These could be exciting times because while anyone's team might end up struggling in this new order, they have a good chance of not. This year it will be Leicester and I congratulate them now on winning the league; too much has to transpire to prevent them and I would be delighted if my team finish 2nd. I won't say I won't be disappointed, but if you'd offered me this in August, after losing a game we should have at least drawn because of a fluke own goal, I would have bitten your arm off.

Every Game is a Cup Final

At around 4pm on Sunday 28th February, I thought I might have a heart attack. I felt giddy and light-headed and strangely exhausted. A bit of research concluded I had a touch of altitude sickness.

Let me put this into some context. My beloved Spurs had been as high as 3rd in 2012 and were quietly being talked about as outside challengers for the title; regardless of what followed, Spurs did something I've grown very familiar with, they dashed my expectations with insipid performances, dropped points and a failure to keep a huge lead of their North London rivals. They eventually limped into 4th place - a fantastic achievement until Chelsea - who finished 6th - won the Champions League and deprived us the place at Europe's top table we just about deserved.

When this title talk began, in January 2012, my eyebrows took on an almost permanent Spock, gradually wilting as Spurs became Spursy. It really was downhill all the way after that. Well, not exactly 'downhill' because finishing 5th, 6th and 5th hardly shows a massive decline. I expect fans of at least 86 other football league clubs would be heartbroken for us to have finished so poorly while playing mind-numbingly dull football.

The one thing any anally-retentive fan will point to were the number of lost points to teams that true challengers would beat. The 'if only' games that every year Spurs fans point to against relegation-threatened teams where we got done over. Every so often I'd find myself more worried about playing Villa than Arsenal and that was all down to expectations and hope: I expected us to win, I hoped we wouldn't screw up. I was disappointed more often than I care to remember.

Whenever Spurs have done well, the next hurdle always seemed like a step too far. Ever since Lasagne-gate some say, but I remember back in the early 1980s when a win would have put us top in a three-way battle with the two Liverpool clubs; instead we turned a lead into a defeat and ended up a long distance behind in 3rd. Smaller hurdles - win this match go 4th, win this game go 3rd and always the pressure seemed to be too much and Spursy turned up.

At the end of September, Spurs were 100-1 to win the league; they'd had an indifferent start but had only lost one game, the problem was they were drawing too many and not killing games off - a bit Spursy and pretty much expected. With the general lack of transfer activity (lots of deadwood shipped out and only a bunch of kids brought in) most pundits believed Spurs were in for another season of transition and very few had them challenging for a top 4 spot let alone an unlikely title tilt.

The draws kept on coming and while Leicester City were winning plaudits and more than a few strange looks, Spurs were just beavering away, dropping points but not losing games and then they broke back into the top 6 and from that point on something clicked.

The false dawns came and went this time. A bad defeat at home to a woeful Newcastle could have been the catalyst to a drop in form, but the young team came out and put that defeat behind them. They had been better in every department that day apart from scoring and this was to be repeated twice more at home before January was over. Leicester performed an admirable smash and grab victory to make everyone realise the Foxes were actually proper challengers and Spurs, well, they would be content with 4th.

After Leicester came Leicester and then Leicester; one draw  and one win (both in the cup) finally saw us get the better of them and since that league defeat the team has moved up a gear; only another home defeat in the FA Cup has blemished a perfect record as Spurs seem to have forgotten how to lose and that's (whisper this) usually the marker for future champions.

In February, Spurs went 2nd. It was almost comical. Expectations for the season had been dashed in the most contrary way, we aren't just punching way above our weight, we actually look like the best team in the league (with apologies to Leicester, but we do). The altitude hasn't bothered the team and neither it seems has the once cursed Europa League and their insane fitness levels mean they look fresher (especially at the end) having played four games in two weeks than the team who had a fortnight in Spain.

Revenge against a very competent Fiorentina side was as one-sided and easy as the fixture was for our opponents the same time last year and then a resilient Swansea decided to park a bus and see if we could break them down. I've watched Spurs dominate games this season without the reward and it looked like the old frailties were going to resurface on Sunday, but at no point during that game did I think we would lose; you don't have 34 attempts on goal without one or two sneaking past an ex-Gooner goalkeeper with a point to prove.

Then Spurs were made favourites for the title after that win. Favourites. Think about that. Favourites to win the Premier League. Wow.

I think the turning point in this team's development happened in the aftermath of their League Cup final defeat to Chelsea. Mauricio Pochettino made the team go and stand and watch Chelsea pick up their trophy and celebrate. I thought at the time it was an inspired move and that was when I started to believe in the manager.

And then I look at the table and I get giddy again. Usually I'd laugh and expect the fall, but is this what fans of challengers feel? Is it right to think my team is playing so well it's the other team that needs to be worried? I'm not confident, but I'll bet you neither are Leicester fans, while Arsenal and Man City fans are thinking practically - regardless of what the bookies say, our teams have won this before, logic dictates one of us will surely win it again and the heroics of Spurs and the Foxes will be consigned to the fond memories of their fans. Except, if I was a fan of either of these chasing teams I'd be worried how much longer my club can not play like champions and still stand a chance?

This wonderfully crazy season (unless you're a Villa fan) is giving neutrals the competition they all want, although I'm sure Chelsea and Man United fans aren't as happy as they'd like to be, but every team goes through transitional stages and if they were to piss and moan I'm sure everyone else will just point to their success and tell them to share the love.

So with a terrifying 10 weeks in front of us, where the Europa League and other teams' own fixture congestion also means we have Monday night matches, Thursday night, and everything points to us facing that 'catch up' which the pundits reckon is the psychological disadvantage to clubs in these kind of positions. I can't help feeling that this will spur them on and that should scare the crap out of teams we're facing. Swansea looked utterly shell-shocked from the constant bombardment of their half by a skilful and youthful team so full of confidence at their own ability, the Welsh will not have a more difficult game again this season. You could forecast that it'll all come crashing down, but that doesn't look like happening to these kids. They play like champions and if they can continue to play like champions for the next 11 matches, there's a good chance they could achieve something I've always secretly known I would never see.

But... While that's a good point to stop, think about this: if Leicester City is not a flash in the pan and they improve; if Pep Guardiola revolutionises Man City; if Arsenal can show some ambition; if Man Utd get Jose Mourinho; if Chelsea bounce back to the level we expect from them; if Everton can reinvest some of this investment money; if West Ham under Bilic can thrive at the Olympic Stadium; if Jurgen Klopp really can turn Liverpool back into a top team; if Southampton continue their improvements; if Stoke continue to attract great players and learn some consistency; if every club in the Premier League has almost a billion quid to spend and if Spurs can keep Pochettino, Alli, Kane, Lloris, heck all the team and can invest in clever squad players - can you imagine just how exciting next season is going to be?

Can We Start Thinking About the Unthinkable?

Imagine you're new to football. You watch a team in blue from a Midlands city play and then you watch a team in red, from a Northern city. The blue team are better. You look at the league table and see the blue team are 10 points clear of the red team - this makes sense; the blue team are better. There is no evidence, at all, to suggest the red team, or for that matter any of the other teams of the same standard as them, are going to turn the current form book on its head over the last 15 games of the season.

Let's get a couple of things clear. The top four teams with the best goal difference finish as the top four every year, apart from the lone year Everton finished fourth. This means unless there's a colossal change in form and a shedload of goal difference changing, the top four teams in the premier league this season will be Arsenal, Leicester, Manchester City and Tottenham Hotspur; in what order these teams finish is still very much a mystery, although experts will tell you that Leicester have by far the most scary run-in (they don't). This scary run-in means that fans of teams from Manchester United (5th - 5 points adrift of 4th) to Chelsea (13th - 14 points adrift) will hope an impressive run of form might allow their teams to achieve unlikely salvation. On current results this isn't likely. We can't use history as a point of reference for Leicester because they have never been here before and no team bottom for most of the previous season has gone on to win it the following year. For Tottenham, the history is usually to blow it. Two fourth place finishes during the last ten 'challenging' years - one of which became obsolete - cements Spurs' reputation as bottlers.

This means, if the pundits are to be respected, it is a straight fight between Arsenal and Man City. To the neutral this is the most likely scenario with whoever holds on for longest finishing third. We all know that's how it will end up, probably with City beating Arsenal with a weekend to spare and Spurs being pipped by Manchester United for 4th because of a run of 1 win in 10. Except... the form book is saying it's a tough one to call because these four teams have been the four best teams in the Premier League so far and there's not that much left.

Let's examine those run-ins:
Leicester City: Currently 1st on 47 points

Leicester v Liverpool
Man City v Leicester
Arsenal v Leicester
Leicester v Norwich
Leicester v West Brom
Watford v Leicester
Leicester v Newcastle
Crystal Palace v Leicester
Leicester v Southampton
Sunderland v Leicester
Leicester v West Ham
Leicester v Swansea
Man Utd v Leicester
Leicester v Everton
Chelsea v Leicester

This is tough. Liverpool have beaten them at Anfield. City and Arsenal are their two closest rivals, so the next three matches are crucial. If they lose these matches and results go against them, they could be fourth and up to six points behind the leaders by the end of February. The thing is Leicester have ten winnable matches in this list and five tough ties, so I feel the best Leicester can achieve is 77pts.

Man City: currently 2nd on 44pts

Sunderland v Man City
Man City v Leicester
Man City v Tottenham
Newcastle v Man City
Liverpool v Man City
Man City v Aston Villa
Norwich v Man City
Man City v Man Utd
Bournemouth v Man City
Man City v West Brom
Chelsea v Man City
Man City v Stoke
Southampton v Man City

Man City v Arsenal
Swansea v Man City

This isn't easy either and while you have to fancy City to beat supposedly inferior teams they have had problems all season and have a tendency to implode at times when their defence goes AWOL. Crucially, I see a guaranteed 33pts here which would put them on 77pts - level with Leicester, but they already have a better goal difference. City, however are still involved in four competitions, Leicester just have the league to play for now.

Arsenal: currently 3rd also on 44pts

Arsenal v Southampton
Bournemouth v Arsenal
Arsenal v Leicester
Man Utd v Arsenal
Arsenal v Swansea
Tottenham v Arsenal
Arsenal v West Brom
Everton v Arsenal
Arsenal v Watford
West Ham v Arsenal
Arsenal v Crystal Palace
Sunderland v Arsenal
Arsenal v Norwich
Man City v Arsenal
Arsenal v Aston Villa

And this is why some people put Arsenal as favourites because they feel the run in is easier and the likelihood of them beating Barcelona in the Champions League means less fixture congestion at the business end; that said I think they will only get 32 points from their remaining fixtures (putting bias aside) which means they would finish the season with 76pts.

Spurs: currently 4th on 42pts

Norwich v Tottenham
Tottenham v Watford
Man City v Tottenham
Tottenham v Swansea
West Ham v Tottenham
Tottenham v Arsenal
Aston Villa v Tottenham
Tottenham v Bournemouth
Liverpool v Tottenham
Tottenham v Man Utd
Stoke v Tottenham
Tottenham v West Brom
Chelsea v Tottenham
Tottenham v Southampton
Newcastle v Tottenham

Arguably the most difficult run-in, but also a mix of matches which could have consequences for all teams. Spurs participation in the Europa League also is a handicap and the FA Cup is another competition that the young squad won't shy away from and this will be a fatigue issue - the manager's desire to do well in everything too doesn't help. This is why I doubt Spurs have a serious chance of finishing in the top 3. I believe from their remaining 15 fixtures they will claim 30 points to finish on 72 points and this should be enough to see them finish in 4th and get a Champions League shot next season.

I see Man Utd claiming between 27 and 33 points, which would not be enough to claim 4th. Chelsea would need to win every one of their remaining games to get 73 points. None of the other teams capable of obtaining enough points have shown the form or have enough combinations of games to make achieving 40+ points from their run ins. Only a massive collapse in form of the top four will now allow one of the other clubs in.

I believe it will finish:

Man City 77 (Goal difference 25)

Leicester 77 (GD 19)

Arsenal   76 (GD 22)

Spurs      72 (GD 24)

So, you can think about the unthinkable all you want, but there's very little to suggest we're going to have that major an upset, but we should see Leicester and Spurs in the Champions League next season and have to hope they can do us proud or this season will end up being for nowt.

As for relegation: I did similar forecasts and it'll be Villa, Sunderland and probably Norwich to go down, but depending on whether or not Everton can win the League Cup, they could get seriously dragged into a dog fight if, like previous League Cup winners, they retire to the beach in their heads for the rest of the season. 40 points could be a big ask.

Finding the Groove is one thing...

... But keeping it is another.

Spurs have shown a few times in recent years the flare of the dynamic Redknapp year(s), except on Saturday what they did was in many ways leaps and bounds ahead of what you would have expected Bale, Modric, VDV and co to have done because these were kids, products of youth academies, as are most footballers, but these are playing on one of the toughest stages in the world and beating the world beaters.

Last year, Kane and co., disposed of Chelsea in a similar cavalier fashion, but the defence last year had pockets that got picked, a lot. Against an arguably much better Man City side, Spurs came back from a seemingly desperate situation - they might have only been 1-0 down, but they were second best to City in almost every department, while, remarkably, not looking half bad - City were just up for it and if it hadn't been for Captain Marveaux Hugo Lloris, we could have been 3 or 4 down and finding out just how much character this young team has.

Instead, the rub of the green evened out and we got a goal from a position that should have been a free kick for the opposition and Eric Dier continued to silence the people who don't believe he has the ability to be a holding midfielder with a cracking, skidding, half-volley that pinged in off the post and you know what they say about a goal on the stroke of half-time?

Over the last couple of years, I hate to admit it, but this is a fixture I tend to make sure I'm out for. The number of times in recent years I've checked my phone and my heart has sunk at the amount of goals we've shipped. This year, the early kick off meant I had no real excuse, so I sat down to the second half expecting a rear-guard action and probably us losing valiantly to an injury time winner from Toure or bloody Raheem Sterling and the second half started exactly how I expected it, except... instead of sitting back, we took the game to City and started probing them with a lot of unexpected forward balls.

There was a point at 2-1 when instead of panicking I watched the dodgy feed and thought, "we're going to tear them apart; they look utterly lost." And that's what happened; the 4-1 score line actually could have been more had the linesman been consistent and allowed Son's offside goal and the hapless City keeper not actually done his job a couple of times. The other thing that made me happy was our substitutions seemed to benefit from the team playing so well, because N'Jie looks a dazzling proposition and suddenly the question marks over our goalscoring capabilities are forgotten.

The performance was stunning and now, the question a lot, if not most, of the supporters are thinking is 'can we keep it up?' This has always been the problem with Spurs, but let's just have a look at the improvement. They were the better side at Old Trafford and lost by an own goal; they ran out of steam against Stoke and Leicester were arguably the better side but they came away with a difficult point. The Sunderland and Palace victories might have been 1-0 but both of them were, shout it, victories, and as The Arse will contest, any victory is 3 points.

So far the team looked like it was in need of clicking; there were good individual performances but also mistakes and you have to expect that from any team at the start of the season and more savvy teams will benefit not just from that but also from lapses of concentration that a younger side might be more prone to do, especially when they're coasting to victory. When it has clicked the team have looked good, they just haven't finished moves and that led to the single striker furore when the transfer window closed. I think we saw as near as damn it Pochettino's starting 11 on Saturday and it's going to be tough for Mason and Bentaleb to break back into that when they're fit, because Deli Alli plays with an assurance that belies his age (he's 19) and Eric Dier looks the part more and more every game and all that must thrill Roy Hodgson.

In fact, watching Spurs must really please any advocate of playing youth and watching them succeed; because let's not dismiss this win, it was a crushing defeat for a would-be champion side and it was done with a style that would have made the casual observer think that it was Spurs who would be there in May and not City. There have been false dawns aplenty in my life as a Spurs fan, but there is something extremely likeable about this young side and something that teams are going to start fearing. A top 4 spot is a long way away, but if teams such as Liverpool and especially Chelsea don't start stringing together results and we do, then two of our rivals for that spot will be playing catch up and against this hungry and ambitious bunch of kids that's not going to be easy.

It's the 'inferior' opposition they need to worry about; because if teams don't give players like Lamela the room to prove his worth the frustrations mount again. Pochettino needs to address our weakness in being unable to consistently beat teams we should be beating, specifically at home. It would be nice to turn White Hart Lane into a fortress just once before we move to the new stadium and that will only happen if they don't get complacent against sides they think they should be beating. That's the final - missing - piece in the jigsaw and none of the previous managers have been able to find it.

Windows

The transfer window has slammed shut again and this time around it has been more the deals that didn't happen that dominate the news headlines. There are five teams that have been highlighted for their failures in the window - Man Utd, Arsenal, Chelsea, Spurs and Real Madrid. The first and the last are in the news because of the David De Gea debacle, the other three have been criticised for their lack of transfer activity. Chelsea bought a bunch of people, loaned a bunch out and not one pundit thinks they've had a good window. Arsenal bought one player - just one - a world class goalkeeper (possibly). Spurs played hardball and got shafted - karma's wheel and all that...

Let's start with Man Utd. I'm going to buck the trend here and suggest this was possibly the best bit of transfer business done all window. Look at De Gea - he's out of contract next summer and will leave (unless he signs a new contract which is unlikely), but what was on offer was a lot of money and a keeper who isn't world class. What was also on offer was Man Utd's best player of the last two years going to one of United's main Champions League rivals - they might not win this competition but they weren't about to help the favourites for it increase their own chances. De Gea wants to be Spain's keeper in next year's Euros, to ensure that he needs to be playing and playing well, so United get their star keeper back for another season and it gives them a year to identify (and tap up) the replacement. There are lots of disgruntled people and journalists looking at the blame game and how this has been a joke; I think LVG and the United board have been shrewd - it's not like a club like Man Utd can't afford to lose a transfer fee if it means the money will come from another source.

Chelsea - apparently stole Pedro from under Man U's noses and he is likely to be a good acquisition. The rest just seemed to confirm that Chelsea want more players than they'll ever need and will loan them strategically so they barely have any impact against the main team. Chelsea are complacent and have a sense of self-belief that is being shaken by events - they will come good and shouldn't be written off. The season is only four games old.

Arsenal are coming in for more criticism than Spurs, yet on paper you wouldn't write this team off at the moment. Some major clubs stutter at the start of the season because the opposition are playing for impetus - the quality Arsenal have will shine through faster than you think and by Christmas, when the next window is about to open, Arsenal will have made light of their inactivity.

Spurs and the reasons for why they are where they are at the moment is clear - despite what has been said, Spurs are treading water and the stadium and development of Northumberland Road has now become the most important thing on Daniel Levy's mind. Had the management been clear that the next few years would be tough and depend on academy graduates there would have been a backlash but we would have known and it would have been a kick in the teeth but it would have at least given us some hope that someone in the club sees quality in the ranks and enough to ensure that a top half is ensured. But they didn't and we are short in key positions because the club wanted to get rid of all of its deadwood.

To face the next few months with what is essentially a threadbare squad is quite frightening. Spurs have had an indifferent start to the season, drawing three and losing to an own goal at Old Trafford. The next three league games could be tough - Sunderland away could be a banana skin waiting to happen because Sunderland are already fighting for their lives. Crystal Palace at home would have been considered a banker once upon a time, but Pardew has worked wonders at the club and now they're not even thought of as relegation fodder; they have also had a good start to the season and they have some momentum. Then it's Man City in Manchester and the Spurs side made up of mainly hot prospects will be pushed, pulled and possibly torn apart, especially if early goals are conceded. During this period we also start the Europa League and play Arsenal in the League Cup - it is an incredibly crucial period for this young side and if it doesn't go right for them then heads will drop. We will see whether Pochettino has what it takes to turn things around - history suggests he might struggle.

The newest additions - Clinton N'Jie and the Korean (whose name will eventually roll off my tongue and into the keyboard) are really nothing special - I say this because neither has played in the Premiership and at Spurs we know the term 'bedding in' better than most - we are the bedding club. That leaves Spurs with one recognised striker and a possible 60 odd games this season and the Euro Championship following in the summer, if Kane remains in Roy's plans.

The fact that Spurs are going into the next few months with Erik Lamela still at the club fills people with a lot of dread. His contributions to the team have been less significant than some of the club's most famous flops and the fact that Pochettino wants to keep him says more about Levy's lack of backing him than anything else. Arsenal fans are almost apoplectic about their club's inactivity, but they have a bloody decent starting XI and a fair few fringe players who would walk into most teams; Spurs have potential and little else.

As a fan I've watched clubs that historically are not serious competition to Spurs and their aspirations buy players with Champions League quality and early enough to hit the ground running. I've watched this largely inexperienced Spurs throw leads away and threaten but not score against quality teams that know how to play against predictable formations and systems.

But it is early days and we were never going to threaten for the title so the setbacks and dropped points need some perspective. Two of the 'nailed on' top four teams are just above us and realistically clubs like Palace, Leicester and Swansea should start to even out and slip down the table - the natural order is expected to assert itself... but... could this season throw up some shocks for a change? Will complacency have devastating effects on some of the top clubs? The table will make interesting reading at Christmas.

End of Season Report Card

The least obvious talking point of this Premier League season, from my POV, is why the press hasn’t had the knives out for Mauricio Pochettino the way they did for AVB and Tim Sherwood, his two predecessors at Tottenham Hotspur.

I suppose a League Cup Final appearance kept the dogs at bay and the fact that Spurs have been there or thereabouts for most of the less important part of the season. Not that they weren’t when AVB was at the helm or when loudmouth Tim was caretaker; it’s like the press gave Daniel Levy their approval and have held off of the speculation even if they haven’t the criticism.

Reading press reports of the season so far suggests a Jekyll and Hyde team that has been capable of, finally, beating some of the big boys, but has been sadly lacking at times, offering poor displays and leaving a lot of fans scratching their heads. We have again been suffering from targeting all the cups with the same intent as the highest league finish – and why shouldn’t they; it’s not just for a pay cheque but for glory, especially when you play for a team that has a reasonable chance of some minor success.

For all the manager’s sometimes baffling selections and faith in kids, many Spurs fans will feel the team has arguably fallen short of some their expectations. It needs to be pointed out that however vehement or ridiculous an expectation is, it is just passion that dictates it. It’s the hope that kills us is a term often used by Spurs fans.

So, what did I make of a season that has yielded Europa League football yet again and what did I make of the players and how they rated.

Hugo Lloris – doesn’t ever get the recognition he deserves because of the younger De Gea, Courtois and Hart, but he’s almost the star performer in a team that needed his consistency. He saved a great number of points and has been the rock in a fragile defence, which until recently doesn’t seem to have found the right combination. 8/10

Michel Vorm – did what was required when needed. Fills me with the kind of dread that Gomez did. I hope he isn’t the designated replacement should Lloris go for glory, next season, which is earlier than I expect. 5/10

Kyle Walker – has always worked well with Aaron Lennon and the work they did on the right was never reflected in assists or goals, but they did so much more to give the team balance. Lennon’s isolation has been to the detriment of Walker and the fact he’s played while not fully fit and injured suggests that right back is a problem position for us. 5/10

Vlad Chiriches – plays like he thinks he’s a cross between Davids Bentley and Beckham; reminds me of the former much more in terms of impact. The way he plays it’s like he’s angling for a defensive midfielder role but has far too many basic errors in his armoury to be anything other than a desperate measure. 3/10

Eric Dier – shows his age but has been a plus. Reminds me of John Terry, but his lack of experience and wisdom suggests he has untimely errors in him and needs to be played sensibly; injuries and inconsistency of others have propelled him into the team faster than I would have expected. Much promise. 7/10

Younis Kaboul – club captain and now nothing more than a fringe player. Hasn’t come back from bad injuries the way you would have hoped and while he has the enthusiasm, I don’t think the body is willing any longer. Would do a good job for a Championship team. 3/10

Jan Vertonghen – if there are confidence players then there are happiness players and Jan is this to a tee. He is a world class defender when he is happy and he’s a liability and a bad influence on the dressing room when he isn’t. He needs to play and he could be a leader. The manager made a mistake not making him captain. 6/10

Freddy Fazio – is the curate’s egg of our defence; he is both excellent and rubbish in equal measure. I can’t make my mind up; he has no pace but he reads a game well; if he had both he’d be a great defender. 4/10

Ben Davies – has suffered from the positive form of Danny Rose. Looks solid and a good buy which confounds the reasons for giving Rose a new 5-year contract, unless the plan is to move Rose into midfield/wing.  One for the next few seasons and could be as important for us as Leighton Baines is for Everton. 6/10

Danny Rose – offers a lot of what BAE offered but is error prone and finds himself out of position a lot. He’s been reasonably consistent and grew into his role until injury hit him. 6/10

Paulinho – I have never rated him and I struggle to see what he brings to a side – a very unBrazilian player who simply disappears in matches and even his work off the ball has to be questioned. A real enigma, but equally a player who, like Roberto Soldado, is in a team that doesn’t play to his strengths. An awful signing. 1/10

Etienne Capoue – is a good player, he’s not for us. Bad signing. Doesn’t work for the team and that showed by his disappearance from the match squad. 1/10

Ryan Mason – there’s no disputing his heart, but technically he simply isn’t top class – a good squad player but nothing more and his failings are often highlighted but hidden by his willingness and work rate. He’s the weak link in the midfield that has been favoured by the manager largely since the New Year. I don’t rate him; I hope I’m wrong. 5/10

Nabil Bentaleb – could be our Patrick Vierra and is improving all the time. He’s young, he’s entitled to some mistakes and he works his arse up to make up for them. One of the bright future stars of Spurs, especially if he continues to develop. 7/10

Nacer Chadli – the stats don’t lie, but is he really all he’s cracked up to be? Is his form too inconsistent and does he offer enough? I struggle to see him as more than a squad player, but who am I? Needs to show more grit and steel in midfield. 5/10

Benjamin Stambouli – who? Going? 2/10

Christian Eriksen – brilliant and average; game-changer and invisible man. Where would we be if he hadn’t fired at times? Used too much, looked tired and devoid of ideas at the arse end of the season. Needs cosseting and protecting – he loves playing, but not too much, eh? 8/10

Erik Lamela – a bit of a cheat, a bit nasty and for all his brilliance at times, he’s looked lost and out of his depth at others. I don’t know how he fits into a cohesive side that isn’t built around him and he’s no Ronaldo or Messi. Difficult to assess; much better than last season but that wasn’t hard. 5/10

Moussa Dembele – so much promise, so much running about, nothing really forthcoming. He’s a great player and will flourish somewhere else that plays to his strengths. 4/10

Andros Townsend – runs around a lot. One dimensional. Able to turn games on a sixpence; but is he worth keeping? Impact sub at best, I like his loyalty and drive but he lacks in good judgement. 5/10

Emma Adebayor – why (I know why)? Is capable of being brilliant, you just never know when that might happen. 1/10

Roberto Soldado – what a great player in a side completely out of tune with what he needs; has been destroyed by his time here and I feel sorry for him. Works really hard and does the job of a #10 very well, but he’s never been played there. 3/10

Harry Kane – many years ago there was talk of this lad; he was going to be the next best thing and arguably the best thing the manager has done is to allow the boy to flourish; what he lacks in pace he makes up for it in guile. People have been waiting for his obvious fall from grace, it might happen next season, but pundits know how good he is and quality – if unhindered – will out. 10/10

Mauricio Pochettino – the manager has been protected from the worst of the bad reactions; Spurs fans have accepted that stability needs to be considered this time around because the quick fixes, multiple players, plus the chopping and changing of managers has really pushed the team backwards. The jury is out – everywhere – as to whether Pochettino is a brilliant new manager or is one-dimensional, devoid of a plan B and is prone to the same failures that many of his predecessors had.
I wasn’t a fan of the Argentinian's appointment, but then again I have struggled to find favour with any manager since Harry Redknapp – who I also feel had gone as far as he could with the team. As for the new man’s ability – when we play well we play excellently; when we play poor we look devoid of ideas and drive – he doesn’t appear to be able to counter this when it happens. There is a feeling he sets his teams up badly and doesn’t give them enough freedom. There is also the argument he hasn’t got his players yet; but there have been players who have arrived since he arrived – Stambouli and Yedlin that have had less than a handful of appearances since Christmas.

Not in any imminent danger of the sack, because the board realise that stability might be just as productive as not having a clue, but next season needs to show a team challenging, not making up the numbers and anything but a top 4 spot will probably spell the end of the manager. 6/10

Already a new defender has been signed - another youngster with potential - this doesn't bother me because it is an area that needs work on. I expect business to be done early this year; if it isn't then we might see deja vu all over again...