Can We Start Thinking About the Unthinkable?

Imagine you're new to football. You watch a team in blue from a Midlands city play and then you watch a team in red, from a Northern city. The blue team are better. You look at the league table and see the blue team are 10 points clear of the red team - this makes sense; the blue team are better. There is no evidence, at all, to suggest the red team, or for that matter any of the other teams of the same standard as them, are going to turn the current form book on its head over the last 15 games of the season.

Let's get a couple of things clear. The top four teams with the best goal difference finish as the top four every year, apart from the lone year Everton finished fourth. This means unless there's a colossal change in form and a shedload of goal difference changing, the top four teams in the premier league this season will be Arsenal, Leicester, Manchester City and Tottenham Hotspur; in what order these teams finish is still very much a mystery, although experts will tell you that Leicester have by far the most scary run-in (they don't). This scary run-in means that fans of teams from Manchester United (5th - 5 points adrift of 4th) to Chelsea (13th - 14 points adrift) will hope an impressive run of form might allow their teams to achieve unlikely salvation. On current results this isn't likely. We can't use history as a point of reference for Leicester because they have never been here before and no team bottom for most of the previous season has gone on to win it the following year. For Tottenham, the history is usually to blow it. Two fourth place finishes during the last ten 'challenging' years - one of which became obsolete - cements Spurs' reputation as bottlers.

This means, if the pundits are to be respected, it is a straight fight between Arsenal and Man City. To the neutral this is the most likely scenario with whoever holds on for longest finishing third. We all know that's how it will end up, probably with City beating Arsenal with a weekend to spare and Spurs being pipped by Manchester United for 4th because of a run of 1 win in 10. Except... the form book is saying it's a tough one to call because these four teams have been the four best teams in the Premier League so far and there's not that much left.

Let's examine those run-ins:
Leicester City: Currently 1st on 47 points

Leicester v Liverpool
Man City v Leicester
Arsenal v Leicester
Leicester v Norwich
Leicester v West Brom
Watford v Leicester
Leicester v Newcastle
Crystal Palace v Leicester
Leicester v Southampton
Sunderland v Leicester
Leicester v West Ham
Leicester v Swansea
Man Utd v Leicester
Leicester v Everton
Chelsea v Leicester

This is tough. Liverpool have beaten them at Anfield. City and Arsenal are their two closest rivals, so the next three matches are crucial. If they lose these matches and results go against them, they could be fourth and up to six points behind the leaders by the end of February. The thing is Leicester have ten winnable matches in this list and five tough ties, so I feel the best Leicester can achieve is 77pts.

Man City: currently 2nd on 44pts

Sunderland v Man City
Man City v Leicester
Man City v Tottenham
Newcastle v Man City
Liverpool v Man City
Man City v Aston Villa
Norwich v Man City
Man City v Man Utd
Bournemouth v Man City
Man City v West Brom
Chelsea v Man City
Man City v Stoke
Southampton v Man City

Man City v Arsenal
Swansea v Man City

This isn't easy either and while you have to fancy City to beat supposedly inferior teams they have had problems all season and have a tendency to implode at times when their defence goes AWOL. Crucially, I see a guaranteed 33pts here which would put them on 77pts - level with Leicester, but they already have a better goal difference. City, however are still involved in four competitions, Leicester just have the league to play for now.

Arsenal: currently 3rd also on 44pts

Arsenal v Southampton
Bournemouth v Arsenal
Arsenal v Leicester
Man Utd v Arsenal
Arsenal v Swansea
Tottenham v Arsenal
Arsenal v West Brom
Everton v Arsenal
Arsenal v Watford
West Ham v Arsenal
Arsenal v Crystal Palace
Sunderland v Arsenal
Arsenal v Norwich
Man City v Arsenal
Arsenal v Aston Villa

And this is why some people put Arsenal as favourites because they feel the run in is easier and the likelihood of them beating Barcelona in the Champions League means less fixture congestion at the business end; that said I think they will only get 32 points from their remaining fixtures (putting bias aside) which means they would finish the season with 76pts.

Spurs: currently 4th on 42pts

Norwich v Tottenham
Tottenham v Watford
Man City v Tottenham
Tottenham v Swansea
West Ham v Tottenham
Tottenham v Arsenal
Aston Villa v Tottenham
Tottenham v Bournemouth
Liverpool v Tottenham
Tottenham v Man Utd
Stoke v Tottenham
Tottenham v West Brom
Chelsea v Tottenham
Tottenham v Southampton
Newcastle v Tottenham

Arguably the most difficult run-in, but also a mix of matches which could have consequences for all teams. Spurs participation in the Europa League also is a handicap and the FA Cup is another competition that the young squad won't shy away from and this will be a fatigue issue - the manager's desire to do well in everything too doesn't help. This is why I doubt Spurs have a serious chance of finishing in the top 3. I believe from their remaining 15 fixtures they will claim 30 points to finish on 72 points and this should be enough to see them finish in 4th and get a Champions League shot next season.

I see Man Utd claiming between 27 and 33 points, which would not be enough to claim 4th. Chelsea would need to win every one of their remaining games to get 73 points. None of the other teams capable of obtaining enough points have shown the form or have enough combinations of games to make achieving 40+ points from their run ins. Only a massive collapse in form of the top four will now allow one of the other clubs in.

I believe it will finish:

Man City 77 (Goal difference 25)

Leicester 77 (GD 19)

Arsenal   76 (GD 22)

Spurs      72 (GD 24)

So, you can think about the unthinkable all you want, but there's very little to suggest we're going to have that major an upset, but we should see Leicester and Spurs in the Champions League next season and have to hope they can do us proud or this season will end up being for nowt.

As for relegation: I did similar forecasts and it'll be Villa, Sunderland and probably Norwich to go down, but depending on whether or not Everton can win the League Cup, they could get seriously dragged into a dog fight if, like previous League Cup winners, they retire to the beach in their heads for the rest of the season. 40 points could be a big ask.