Can We Start Thinking About the Unthinkable?

Imagine you're new to football. You watch a team in blue from a Midlands city play and then you watch a team in red, from a Northern city. The blue team are better. You look at the league table and see the blue team are 10 points clear of the red team - this makes sense; the blue team are better. There is no evidence, at all, to suggest the red team, or for that matter any of the other teams of the same standard as them, are going to turn the current form book on its head over the last 15 games of the season.

Let's get a couple of things clear. The top four teams with the best goal difference finish as the top four every year, apart from the lone year Everton finished fourth. This means unless there's a colossal change in form and a shedload of goal difference changing, the top four teams in the premier league this season will be Arsenal, Leicester, Manchester City and Tottenham Hotspur; in what order these teams finish is still very much a mystery, although experts will tell you that Leicester have by far the most scary run-in (they don't). This scary run-in means that fans of teams from Manchester United (5th - 5 points adrift of 4th) to Chelsea (13th - 14 points adrift) will hope an impressive run of form might allow their teams to achieve unlikely salvation. On current results this isn't likely. We can't use history as a point of reference for Leicester because they have never been here before and no team bottom for most of the previous season has gone on to win it the following year. For Tottenham, the history is usually to blow it. Two fourth place finishes during the last ten 'challenging' years - one of which became obsolete - cements Spurs' reputation as bottlers.

This means, if the pundits are to be respected, it is a straight fight between Arsenal and Man City. To the neutral this is the most likely scenario with whoever holds on for longest finishing third. We all know that's how it will end up, probably with City beating Arsenal with a weekend to spare and Spurs being pipped by Manchester United for 4th because of a run of 1 win in 10. Except... the form book is saying it's a tough one to call because these four teams have been the four best teams in the Premier League so far and there's not that much left.

Let's examine those run-ins:
Leicester City: Currently 1st on 47 points

Leicester v Liverpool
Man City v Leicester
Arsenal v Leicester
Leicester v Norwich
Leicester v West Brom
Watford v Leicester
Leicester v Newcastle
Crystal Palace v Leicester
Leicester v Southampton
Sunderland v Leicester
Leicester v West Ham
Leicester v Swansea
Man Utd v Leicester
Leicester v Everton
Chelsea v Leicester

This is tough. Liverpool have beaten them at Anfield. City and Arsenal are their two closest rivals, so the next three matches are crucial. If they lose these matches and results go against them, they could be fourth and up to six points behind the leaders by the end of February. The thing is Leicester have ten winnable matches in this list and five tough ties, so I feel the best Leicester can achieve is 77pts.

Man City: currently 2nd on 44pts

Sunderland v Man City
Man City v Leicester
Man City v Tottenham
Newcastle v Man City
Liverpool v Man City
Man City v Aston Villa
Norwich v Man City
Man City v Man Utd
Bournemouth v Man City
Man City v West Brom
Chelsea v Man City
Man City v Stoke
Southampton v Man City

Man City v Arsenal
Swansea v Man City

This isn't easy either and while you have to fancy City to beat supposedly inferior teams they have had problems all season and have a tendency to implode at times when their defence goes AWOL. Crucially, I see a guaranteed 33pts here which would put them on 77pts - level with Leicester, but they already have a better goal difference. City, however are still involved in four competitions, Leicester just have the league to play for now.

Arsenal: currently 3rd also on 44pts

Arsenal v Southampton
Bournemouth v Arsenal
Arsenal v Leicester
Man Utd v Arsenal
Arsenal v Swansea
Tottenham v Arsenal
Arsenal v West Brom
Everton v Arsenal
Arsenal v Watford
West Ham v Arsenal
Arsenal v Crystal Palace
Sunderland v Arsenal
Arsenal v Norwich
Man City v Arsenal
Arsenal v Aston Villa

And this is why some people put Arsenal as favourites because they feel the run in is easier and the likelihood of them beating Barcelona in the Champions League means less fixture congestion at the business end; that said I think they will only get 32 points from their remaining fixtures (putting bias aside) which means they would finish the season with 76pts.

Spurs: currently 4th on 42pts

Norwich v Tottenham
Tottenham v Watford
Man City v Tottenham
Tottenham v Swansea
West Ham v Tottenham
Tottenham v Arsenal
Aston Villa v Tottenham
Tottenham v Bournemouth
Liverpool v Tottenham
Tottenham v Man Utd
Stoke v Tottenham
Tottenham v West Brom
Chelsea v Tottenham
Tottenham v Southampton
Newcastle v Tottenham

Arguably the most difficult run-in, but also a mix of matches which could have consequences for all teams. Spurs participation in the Europa League also is a handicap and the FA Cup is another competition that the young squad won't shy away from and this will be a fatigue issue - the manager's desire to do well in everything too doesn't help. This is why I doubt Spurs have a serious chance of finishing in the top 3. I believe from their remaining 15 fixtures they will claim 30 points to finish on 72 points and this should be enough to see them finish in 4th and get a Champions League shot next season.

I see Man Utd claiming between 27 and 33 points, which would not be enough to claim 4th. Chelsea would need to win every one of their remaining games to get 73 points. None of the other teams capable of obtaining enough points have shown the form or have enough combinations of games to make achieving 40+ points from their run ins. Only a massive collapse in form of the top four will now allow one of the other clubs in.

I believe it will finish:

Man City 77 (Goal difference 25)

Leicester 77 (GD 19)

Arsenal   76 (GD 22)

Spurs      72 (GD 24)

So, you can think about the unthinkable all you want, but there's very little to suggest we're going to have that major an upset, but we should see Leicester and Spurs in the Champions League next season and have to hope they can do us proud or this season will end up being for nowt.

As for relegation: I did similar forecasts and it'll be Villa, Sunderland and probably Norwich to go down, but depending on whether or not Everton can win the League Cup, they could get seriously dragged into a dog fight if, like previous League Cup winners, they retire to the beach in their heads for the rest of the season. 40 points could be a big ask.

Finding the Groove is one thing...

... But keeping it is another.

Spurs have shown a few times in recent years the flare of the dynamic Redknapp year(s), except on Saturday what they did was in many ways leaps and bounds ahead of what you would have expected Bale, Modric, VDV and co to have done because these were kids, products of youth academies, as are most footballers, but these are playing on one of the toughest stages in the world and beating the world beaters.

Last year, Kane and co., disposed of Chelsea in a similar cavalier fashion, but the defence last year had pockets that got picked, a lot. Against an arguably much better Man City side, Spurs came back from a seemingly desperate situation - they might have only been 1-0 down, but they were second best to City in almost every department, while, remarkably, not looking half bad - City were just up for it and if it hadn't been for Captain Marveaux Hugo Lloris, we could have been 3 or 4 down and finding out just how much character this young team has.

Instead, the rub of the green evened out and we got a goal from a position that should have been a free kick for the opposition and Eric Dier continued to silence the people who don't believe he has the ability to be a holding midfielder with a cracking, skidding, half-volley that pinged in off the post and you know what they say about a goal on the stroke of half-time?

Over the last couple of years, I hate to admit it, but this is a fixture I tend to make sure I'm out for. The number of times in recent years I've checked my phone and my heart has sunk at the amount of goals we've shipped. This year, the early kick off meant I had no real excuse, so I sat down to the second half expecting a rear-guard action and probably us losing valiantly to an injury time winner from Toure or bloody Raheem Sterling and the second half started exactly how I expected it, except... instead of sitting back, we took the game to City and started probing them with a lot of unexpected forward balls.

There was a point at 2-1 when instead of panicking I watched the dodgy feed and thought, "we're going to tear them apart; they look utterly lost." And that's what happened; the 4-1 score line actually could have been more had the linesman been consistent and allowed Son's offside goal and the hapless City keeper not actually done his job a couple of times. The other thing that made me happy was our substitutions seemed to benefit from the team playing so well, because N'Jie looks a dazzling proposition and suddenly the question marks over our goalscoring capabilities are forgotten.

The performance was stunning and now, the question a lot, if not most, of the supporters are thinking is 'can we keep it up?' This has always been the problem with Spurs, but let's just have a look at the improvement. They were the better side at Old Trafford and lost by an own goal; they ran out of steam against Stoke and Leicester were arguably the better side but they came away with a difficult point. The Sunderland and Palace victories might have been 1-0 but both of them were, shout it, victories, and as The Arse will contest, any victory is 3 points.

So far the team looked like it was in need of clicking; there were good individual performances but also mistakes and you have to expect that from any team at the start of the season and more savvy teams will benefit not just from that but also from lapses of concentration that a younger side might be more prone to do, especially when they're coasting to victory. When it has clicked the team have looked good, they just haven't finished moves and that led to the single striker furore when the transfer window closed. I think we saw as near as damn it Pochettino's starting 11 on Saturday and it's going to be tough for Mason and Bentaleb to break back into that when they're fit, because Deli Alli plays with an assurance that belies his age (he's 19) and Eric Dier looks the part more and more every game and all that must thrill Roy Hodgson.

In fact, watching Spurs must really please any advocate of playing youth and watching them succeed; because let's not dismiss this win, it was a crushing defeat for a would-be champion side and it was done with a style that would have made the casual observer think that it was Spurs who would be there in May and not City. There have been false dawns aplenty in my life as a Spurs fan, but there is something extremely likeable about this young side and something that teams are going to start fearing. A top 4 spot is a long way away, but if teams such as Liverpool and especially Chelsea don't start stringing together results and we do, then two of our rivals for that spot will be playing catch up and against this hungry and ambitious bunch of kids that's not going to be easy.

It's the 'inferior' opposition they need to worry about; because if teams don't give players like Lamela the room to prove his worth the frustrations mount again. Pochettino needs to address our weakness in being unable to consistently beat teams we should be beating, specifically at home. It would be nice to turn White Hart Lane into a fortress just once before we move to the new stadium and that will only happen if they don't get complacent against sides they think they should be beating. That's the final - missing - piece in the jigsaw and none of the previous managers have been able to find it.

End of Season Report Card

The least obvious talking point of this Premier League season, from my POV, is why the press hasn’t had the knives out for Mauricio Pochettino the way they did for AVB and Tim Sherwood, his two predecessors at Tottenham Hotspur.

I suppose a League Cup Final appearance kept the dogs at bay and the fact that Spurs have been there or thereabouts for most of the less important part of the season. Not that they weren’t when AVB was at the helm or when loudmouth Tim was caretaker; it’s like the press gave Daniel Levy their approval and have held off of the speculation even if they haven’t the criticism.

Reading press reports of the season so far suggests a Jekyll and Hyde team that has been capable of, finally, beating some of the big boys, but has been sadly lacking at times, offering poor displays and leaving a lot of fans scratching their heads. We have again been suffering from targeting all the cups with the same intent as the highest league finish – and why shouldn’t they; it’s not just for a pay cheque but for glory, especially when you play for a team that has a reasonable chance of some minor success.

For all the manager’s sometimes baffling selections and faith in kids, many Spurs fans will feel the team has arguably fallen short of some their expectations. It needs to be pointed out that however vehement or ridiculous an expectation is, it is just passion that dictates it. It’s the hope that kills us is a term often used by Spurs fans.

So, what did I make of a season that has yielded Europa League football yet again and what did I make of the players and how they rated.

Hugo Lloris – doesn’t ever get the recognition he deserves because of the younger De Gea, Courtois and Hart, but he’s almost the star performer in a team that needed his consistency. He saved a great number of points and has been the rock in a fragile defence, which until recently doesn’t seem to have found the right combination. 8/10

Michel Vorm – did what was required when needed. Fills me with the kind of dread that Gomez did. I hope he isn’t the designated replacement should Lloris go for glory, next season, which is earlier than I expect. 5/10

Kyle Walker – has always worked well with Aaron Lennon and the work they did on the right was never reflected in assists or goals, but they did so much more to give the team balance. Lennon’s isolation has been to the detriment of Walker and the fact he’s played while not fully fit and injured suggests that right back is a problem position for us. 5/10

Vlad Chiriches – plays like he thinks he’s a cross between Davids Bentley and Beckham; reminds me of the former much more in terms of impact. The way he plays it’s like he’s angling for a defensive midfielder role but has far too many basic errors in his armoury to be anything other than a desperate measure. 3/10

Eric Dier – shows his age but has been a plus. Reminds me of John Terry, but his lack of experience and wisdom suggests he has untimely errors in him and needs to be played sensibly; injuries and inconsistency of others have propelled him into the team faster than I would have expected. Much promise. 7/10

Younis Kaboul – club captain and now nothing more than a fringe player. Hasn’t come back from bad injuries the way you would have hoped and while he has the enthusiasm, I don’t think the body is willing any longer. Would do a good job for a Championship team. 3/10

Jan Vertonghen – if there are confidence players then there are happiness players and Jan is this to a tee. He is a world class defender when he is happy and he’s a liability and a bad influence on the dressing room when he isn’t. He needs to play and he could be a leader. The manager made a mistake not making him captain. 6/10

Freddy Fazio – is the curate’s egg of our defence; he is both excellent and rubbish in equal measure. I can’t make my mind up; he has no pace but he reads a game well; if he had both he’d be a great defender. 4/10

Ben Davies – has suffered from the positive form of Danny Rose. Looks solid and a good buy which confounds the reasons for giving Rose a new 5-year contract, unless the plan is to move Rose into midfield/wing.  One for the next few seasons and could be as important for us as Leighton Baines is for Everton. 6/10

Danny Rose – offers a lot of what BAE offered but is error prone and finds himself out of position a lot. He’s been reasonably consistent and grew into his role until injury hit him. 6/10

Paulinho – I have never rated him and I struggle to see what he brings to a side – a very unBrazilian player who simply disappears in matches and even his work off the ball has to be questioned. A real enigma, but equally a player who, like Roberto Soldado, is in a team that doesn’t play to his strengths. An awful signing. 1/10

Etienne Capoue – is a good player, he’s not for us. Bad signing. Doesn’t work for the team and that showed by his disappearance from the match squad. 1/10

Ryan Mason – there’s no disputing his heart, but technically he simply isn’t top class – a good squad player but nothing more and his failings are often highlighted but hidden by his willingness and work rate. He’s the weak link in the midfield that has been favoured by the manager largely since the New Year. I don’t rate him; I hope I’m wrong. 5/10

Nabil Bentaleb – could be our Patrick Vierra and is improving all the time. He’s young, he’s entitled to some mistakes and he works his arse up to make up for them. One of the bright future stars of Spurs, especially if he continues to develop. 7/10

Nacer Chadli – the stats don’t lie, but is he really all he’s cracked up to be? Is his form too inconsistent and does he offer enough? I struggle to see him as more than a squad player, but who am I? Needs to show more grit and steel in midfield. 5/10

Benjamin Stambouli – who? Going? 2/10

Christian Eriksen – brilliant and average; game-changer and invisible man. Where would we be if he hadn’t fired at times? Used too much, looked tired and devoid of ideas at the arse end of the season. Needs cosseting and protecting – he loves playing, but not too much, eh? 8/10

Erik Lamela – a bit of a cheat, a bit nasty and for all his brilliance at times, he’s looked lost and out of his depth at others. I don’t know how he fits into a cohesive side that isn’t built around him and he’s no Ronaldo or Messi. Difficult to assess; much better than last season but that wasn’t hard. 5/10

Moussa Dembele – so much promise, so much running about, nothing really forthcoming. He’s a great player and will flourish somewhere else that plays to his strengths. 4/10

Andros Townsend – runs around a lot. One dimensional. Able to turn games on a sixpence; but is he worth keeping? Impact sub at best, I like his loyalty and drive but he lacks in good judgement. 5/10

Emma Adebayor – why (I know why)? Is capable of being brilliant, you just never know when that might happen. 1/10

Roberto Soldado – what a great player in a side completely out of tune with what he needs; has been destroyed by his time here and I feel sorry for him. Works really hard and does the job of a #10 very well, but he’s never been played there. 3/10

Harry Kane – many years ago there was talk of this lad; he was going to be the next best thing and arguably the best thing the manager has done is to allow the boy to flourish; what he lacks in pace he makes up for it in guile. People have been waiting for his obvious fall from grace, it might happen next season, but pundits know how good he is and quality – if unhindered – will out. 10/10

Mauricio Pochettino – the manager has been protected from the worst of the bad reactions; Spurs fans have accepted that stability needs to be considered this time around because the quick fixes, multiple players, plus the chopping and changing of managers has really pushed the team backwards. The jury is out – everywhere – as to whether Pochettino is a brilliant new manager or is one-dimensional, devoid of a plan B and is prone to the same failures that many of his predecessors had.
I wasn’t a fan of the Argentinian's appointment, but then again I have struggled to find favour with any manager since Harry Redknapp – who I also feel had gone as far as he could with the team. As for the new man’s ability – when we play well we play excellently; when we play poor we look devoid of ideas and drive – he doesn’t appear to be able to counter this when it happens. There is a feeling he sets his teams up badly and doesn’t give them enough freedom. There is also the argument he hasn’t got his players yet; but there have been players who have arrived since he arrived – Stambouli and Yedlin that have had less than a handful of appearances since Christmas.

Not in any imminent danger of the sack, because the board realise that stability might be just as productive as not having a clue, but next season needs to show a team challenging, not making up the numbers and anything but a top 4 spot will probably spell the end of the manager. 6/10

Already a new defender has been signed - another youngster with potential - this doesn't bother me because it is an area that needs work on. I expect business to be done early this year; if it isn't then we might see deja vu all over again...