At around 4pm on Sunday 28th February, I thought I might have a heart attack. I felt giddy and light-headed and strangely exhausted. A bit of research concluded I had a touch of altitude sickness.
Let me put this into some context. My beloved Spurs had been as high as 3rd in 2012 and were quietly being talked about as outside challengers for the title; regardless of what followed, Spurs did something I've grown very familiar with, they dashed my expectations with insipid performances, dropped points and a failure to keep a huge lead of their North London rivals. They eventually limped into 4th place - a fantastic achievement until Chelsea - who finished 6th - won the Champions League and deprived us the place at Europe's top table we just about deserved.
When this title talk began, in January 2012, my eyebrows took on an almost permanent Spock, gradually wilting as Spurs became Spursy. It really was downhill all the way after that. Well, not exactly 'downhill' because finishing 5th, 6th and 5th hardly shows a massive decline. I expect fans of at least 86 other football league clubs would be heartbroken for us to have finished so poorly while playing mind-numbingly dull football.
The one thing any anally-retentive fan will point to were the number of lost points to teams that true challengers would beat. The 'if only' games that every year Spurs fans point to against relegation-threatened teams where we got done over. Every so often I'd find myself more worried about playing Villa than Arsenal and that was all down to expectations and hope: I expected us to win, I hoped we wouldn't screw up. I was disappointed more often than I care to remember.
Whenever Spurs have done well, the next hurdle always seemed like a step too far. Ever since Lasagne-gate some say, but I remember back in the early 1980s when a win would have put us top in a three-way battle with the two Liverpool clubs; instead we turned a lead into a defeat and ended up a long distance behind in 3rd. Smaller hurdles - win this match go 4th, win this game go 3rd and always the pressure seemed to be too much and Spursy turned up.
At the end of September, Spurs were 100-1 to win the league; they'd had an indifferent start but had only lost one game, the problem was they were drawing too many and not killing games off - a bit Spursy and pretty much expected. With the general lack of transfer activity (lots of deadwood shipped out and only a bunch of kids brought in) most pundits believed Spurs were in for another season of transition and very few had them challenging for a top 4 spot let alone an unlikely title tilt.
The draws kept on coming and while Leicester City were winning plaudits and more than a few strange looks, Spurs were just beavering away, dropping points but not losing games and then they broke back into the top 6 and from that point on something clicked.
The false dawns came and went this time. A bad defeat at home to a woeful Newcastle could have been the catalyst to a drop in form, but the young team came out and put that defeat behind them. They had been better in every department that day apart from scoring and this was to be repeated twice more at home before January was over. Leicester performed an admirable smash and grab victory to make everyone realise the Foxes were actually proper challengers and Spurs, well, they would be content with 4th.
After Leicester came Leicester and then Leicester; one draw and one win (both in the cup) finally saw us get the better of them and since that league defeat the team has moved up a gear; only another home defeat in the FA Cup has blemished a perfect record as Spurs seem to have forgotten how to lose and that's (whisper this) usually the marker for future champions.
In February, Spurs went 2nd. It was almost comical. Expectations for the season had been dashed in the most contrary way, we aren't just punching way above our weight, we actually look like the best team in the league (with apologies to Leicester, but we do). The altitude hasn't bothered the team and neither it seems has the once cursed Europa League and their insane fitness levels mean they look fresher (especially at the end) having played four games in two weeks than the team who had a fortnight in Spain.
Revenge against a very competent Fiorentina side was as one-sided and easy as the fixture was for our opponents the same time last year and then a resilient Swansea decided to park a bus and see if we could break them down. I've watched Spurs dominate games this season without the reward and it looked like the old frailties were going to resurface on Sunday, but at no point during that game did I think we would lose; you don't have 34 attempts on goal without one or two sneaking past an ex-Gooner goalkeeper with a point to prove.
Then Spurs were made favourites for the title after that win. Favourites. Think about that. Favourites to win the Premier League. Wow.
I think the turning point in this team's development happened in the aftermath of their League Cup final defeat to Chelsea. Mauricio Pochettino made the team go and stand and watch Chelsea pick up their trophy and celebrate. I thought at the time it was an inspired move and that was when I started to believe in the manager.
And then I look at the table and I get giddy again. Usually I'd laugh and expect the fall, but is this what fans of challengers feel? Is it right to think my team is playing so well it's the other team that needs to be worried? I'm not confident, but I'll bet you neither are Leicester fans, while Arsenal and Man City fans are thinking practically - regardless of what the bookies say, our teams have won this before, logic dictates one of us will surely win it again and the heroics of Spurs and the Foxes will be consigned to the fond memories of their fans. Except, if I was a fan of either of these chasing teams I'd be worried how much longer my club can not play like champions and still stand a chance?
This wonderfully crazy season (unless you're a Villa fan) is giving neutrals the competition they all want, although I'm sure Chelsea and Man United fans aren't as happy as they'd like to be, but every team goes through transitional stages and if they were to piss and moan I'm sure everyone else will just point to their success and tell them to share the love.
So with a terrifying 10 weeks in front of us, where the Europa League and other teams' own fixture congestion also means we have Monday night matches, Thursday night, and everything points to us facing that 'catch up' which the pundits reckon is the psychological disadvantage to clubs in these kind of positions. I can't help feeling that this will spur them on and that should scare the crap out of teams we're facing. Swansea looked utterly shell-shocked from the constant bombardment of their half by a skilful and youthful team so full of confidence at their own ability, the Welsh will not have a more difficult game again this season. You could forecast that it'll all come crashing down, but that doesn't look like happening to these kids. They play like champions and if they can continue to play like champions for the next 11 matches, there's a good chance they could achieve something I've always secretly known I would never see.
But... While that's a good point to stop, think about this: if Leicester City is not a flash in the pan and they improve; if Pep Guardiola revolutionises Man City; if Arsenal can show some ambition; if Man Utd get Jose Mourinho; if Chelsea bounce back to the level we expect from them; if Everton can reinvest some of this investment money; if West Ham under Bilic can thrive at the Olympic Stadium; if Jurgen Klopp really can turn Liverpool back into a top team; if Southampton continue their improvements; if Stoke continue to attract great players and learn some consistency; if every club in the Premier League has almost a billion quid to spend and if Spurs can keep Pochettino, Alli, Kane, Lloris, heck all the team and can invest in clever squad players - can you imagine just how exciting next season is going to be?
Monday, 29 February 2016
Tuesday, 26 January 2016
Can We Start Thinking About the Unthinkable?
Imagine you're new to football. You watch a team in blue from a Midlands city play and then you watch a team in red, from a Northern city. The blue team are better. You look at the league table and see the blue team are 10 points clear of the red team - this makes sense; the blue team are better. There is no evidence, at all, to suggest the red team, or for that matter any of the other teams of the same standard as them, are going to turn the current form book on its head over the last 15 games of the season.
Let's get a couple of things clear. The top four teams with the best goal difference finish as the top four every year, apart from the lone year Everton finished fourth. This means unless there's a colossal change in form and a shedload of goal difference changing, the top four teams in the premier league this season will be Arsenal, Leicester, Manchester City and Tottenham Hotspur; in what order these teams finish is still very much a mystery, although experts will tell you that Leicester have by far the most scary run-in (they don't). This scary run-in means that fans of teams from Manchester United (5th - 5 points adrift of 4th) to Chelsea (13th - 14 points adrift) will hope an impressive run of form might allow their teams to achieve unlikely salvation. On current results this isn't likely. We can't use history as a point of reference for Leicester because they have never been here before and no team bottom for most of the previous season has gone on to win it the following year. For Tottenham, the history is usually to blow it. Two fourth place finishes during the last ten 'challenging' years - one of which became obsolete - cements Spurs' reputation as bottlers.
This means, if the pundits are to be respected, it is a straight fight between Arsenal and Man City. To the neutral this is the most likely scenario with whoever holds on for longest finishing third. We all know that's how it will end up, probably with City beating Arsenal with a weekend to spare and Spurs being pipped by Manchester United for 4th because of a run of 1 win in 10. Except... the form book is saying it's a tough one to call because these four teams have been the four best teams in the Premier League so far and there's not that much left.
Let's examine those run-ins:
Leicester City: Currently 1st on 47 points
Leicester v Liverpool
Man City v Leicester
Arsenal v Leicester
Leicester v Norwich
Leicester v West Brom
Watford v Leicester
Leicester v Newcastle
Crystal Palace v Leicester
Leicester v Southampton
Sunderland v Leicester
Leicester v West Ham
Leicester v Swansea
Man Utd v Leicester
Leicester v Everton
Chelsea v Leicester
This is tough. Liverpool have beaten them at Anfield. City and Arsenal are their two closest rivals, so the next three matches are crucial. If they lose these matches and results go against them, they could be fourth and up to six points behind the leaders by the end of February. The thing is Leicester have ten winnable matches in this list and five tough ties, so I feel the best Leicester can achieve is 77pts.
Man City: currently 2nd on 44pts
Let's get a couple of things clear. The top four teams with the best goal difference finish as the top four every year, apart from the lone year Everton finished fourth. This means unless there's a colossal change in form and a shedload of goal difference changing, the top four teams in the premier league this season will be Arsenal, Leicester, Manchester City and Tottenham Hotspur; in what order these teams finish is still very much a mystery, although experts will tell you that Leicester have by far the most scary run-in (they don't). This scary run-in means that fans of teams from Manchester United (5th - 5 points adrift of 4th) to Chelsea (13th - 14 points adrift) will hope an impressive run of form might allow their teams to achieve unlikely salvation. On current results this isn't likely. We can't use history as a point of reference for Leicester because they have never been here before and no team bottom for most of the previous season has gone on to win it the following year. For Tottenham, the history is usually to blow it. Two fourth place finishes during the last ten 'challenging' years - one of which became obsolete - cements Spurs' reputation as bottlers.
This means, if the pundits are to be respected, it is a straight fight between Arsenal and Man City. To the neutral this is the most likely scenario with whoever holds on for longest finishing third. We all know that's how it will end up, probably with City beating Arsenal with a weekend to spare and Spurs being pipped by Manchester United for 4th because of a run of 1 win in 10. Except... the form book is saying it's a tough one to call because these four teams have been the four best teams in the Premier League so far and there's not that much left.
Let's examine those run-ins:
Leicester City: Currently 1st on 47 points
Leicester v Liverpool
Man City v Leicester
Arsenal v Leicester
Leicester v Norwich
Leicester v West Brom
Watford v Leicester
Leicester v Newcastle
Crystal Palace v Leicester
Leicester v Southampton
Sunderland v Leicester
Leicester v West Ham
Leicester v Swansea
Man Utd v Leicester
Leicester v Everton
Chelsea v Leicester
This is tough. Liverpool have beaten them at Anfield. City and Arsenal are their two closest rivals, so the next three matches are crucial. If they lose these matches and results go against them, they could be fourth and up to six points behind the leaders by the end of February. The thing is Leicester have ten winnable matches in this list and five tough ties, so I feel the best Leicester can achieve is 77pts.
Man City: currently 2nd on 44pts
Sunderland v Man City
Man City v Leicester
Man City v Tottenham
Newcastle v Man City
Liverpool v Man City
Man City v Aston Villa
Norwich v Man City
Man City v Man Utd
Bournemouth v Man City
Man City v West Brom
Chelsea v Man City
Man City v Stoke
Southampton v Man City
Man City v Leicester
Man City v Tottenham
Newcastle v Man City
Liverpool v Man City
Man City v Aston Villa
Norwich v Man City
Man City v Man Utd
Bournemouth v Man City
Man City v West Brom
Chelsea v Man City
Man City v Stoke
Southampton v Man City
Man City v Arsenal
Swansea v Man City
Swansea v Man City
This isn't easy either and while you have to fancy City to beat supposedly inferior teams they have had problems all season and have a tendency to implode at times when their defence goes AWOL. Crucially, I see a guaranteed 33pts here which would put them on 77pts - level with Leicester, but they already have a better goal difference. City, however are still involved in four competitions, Leicester just have the league to play for now.
Arsenal: currently 3rd also on 44pts
Arsenal v Southampton
Bournemouth v Arsenal
Arsenal v Leicester
Man Utd v Arsenal
Arsenal v Swansea
Tottenham v Arsenal
Arsenal v West Brom
Everton v Arsenal
Arsenal v Watford
West Ham v Arsenal
Arsenal v Crystal Palace
Sunderland v Arsenal
Arsenal v Norwich
Man City v Arsenal
Arsenal v Aston Villa
Bournemouth v Arsenal
Arsenal v Leicester
Man Utd v Arsenal
Arsenal v Swansea
Tottenham v Arsenal
Arsenal v West Brom
Everton v Arsenal
Arsenal v Watford
West Ham v Arsenal
Arsenal v Crystal Palace
Sunderland v Arsenal
Arsenal v Norwich
Man City v Arsenal
Arsenal v Aston Villa
And this is why some people put Arsenal as favourites because they feel the run in is easier and the likelihood of them beating Barcelona in the Champions League means less fixture congestion at the business end; that said I think they will only get 32 points from their remaining fixtures (putting bias aside) which means they would finish the season with 76pts.
Spurs: currently 4th on 42pts
Norwich v Tottenham
Tottenham v Watford
Man City v Tottenham
Tottenham v Swansea
West Ham v Tottenham
Tottenham v Arsenal
Aston Villa v Tottenham
Tottenham v Bournemouth
Liverpool v Tottenham
Tottenham v Man Utd
Stoke v Tottenham
Tottenham v West Brom
Chelsea v Tottenham
Tottenham v Southampton
Newcastle v Tottenham
Tottenham v Watford
Man City v Tottenham
Tottenham v Swansea
West Ham v Tottenham
Tottenham v Arsenal
Aston Villa v Tottenham
Tottenham v Bournemouth
Liverpool v Tottenham
Tottenham v Man Utd
Stoke v Tottenham
Tottenham v West Brom
Chelsea v Tottenham
Tottenham v Southampton
Newcastle v Tottenham
Arguably the most difficult run-in, but also a mix of matches which could have consequences for all teams. Spurs participation in the Europa League also is a handicap and the FA Cup is another competition that the young squad won't shy away from and this will be a fatigue issue - the manager's desire to do well in everything too doesn't help. This is why I doubt Spurs have a serious chance of finishing in the top 3. I believe from their remaining 15 fixtures they will claim 30 points to finish on 72 points and this should be enough to see them finish in 4th and get a Champions League shot next season.
I see Man Utd claiming between 27 and 33 points, which would not be enough to claim 4th. Chelsea would need to win every one of their remaining games to get 73 points. None of the other teams capable of obtaining enough points have shown the form or have enough combinations of games to make achieving 40+ points from their run ins. Only a massive collapse in form of the top four will now allow one of the other clubs in.
I believe it will finish:
Man City 77 (Goal difference 25)
Leicester 77 (GD 19)
Arsenal 76 (GD 22)
Spurs 72 (GD 24)
So, you can think about the unthinkable all you want, but there's very little to suggest we're going to have that major an upset, but we should see Leicester and Spurs in the Champions League next season and have to hope they can do us proud or this season will end up being for nowt.
As for relegation: I did similar forecasts and it'll be Villa, Sunderland and probably Norwich to go down, but depending on whether or not Everton can win the League Cup, they could get seriously dragged into a dog fight if, like previous League Cup winners, they retire to the beach in their heads for the rest of the season. 40 points could be a big ask.
Friday, 15 January 2016
Damned if you do or don't...
Every year, my mate Roger and I forecast the coming football season by predicting where we think the 20 teams will finish and most years we're not that far off; we usually get one or two really wrong - I never had QPR ever getting relegated, he had Wigan relegated every season apart from the one they actually went down. Usually though we get it within 2 places and while there's nothing to be proud about, it's a bit of fun. This season we both had Chelsea finishing in the top 2 and Leicester relegated. Had you shown us the table from January 2016 back at the start of August 2015, we both would have probably accused the compiler of being a hopelessly romantic Leicester fan with a hate on for Jose Mourinho.
On Wednesday, the surprise package of the 21st century Leicester City beat my Spurs to go joint top of the Premier League with the hated Arse. It is about the fifth time this season Leicester have either been top or shared it with someone. They haven't done what every pundit in the country has forecast; they haven't fallen to pieces. They had a blip; that blip consisted of three games without scoring, but they still only lost once - so only really a blip if you're one of the elite top four clubs; 12 months ago Nigel Pearson would have bitten your hand off for two points from three games.
I know a couple of Leicester fans and the mixture of amazement and elation is etched on their faces; they can't quite believe it and the longer it goes on the more that disbelief is compounded - they aren't getting complacent or blasé, they're just getting more convinced they're in a dream and they'll wake up with Chelsea, Man City and Arsenal fighting it out at the top and Leicester already relegated, in November. I think Leicester's story has been incredible. I wasn't even pissed off they beat us at home and prevented/pushed back our own unlikely challenge for the top, but in reality, as much as I hate to say it, I kind of wish they'd been relegated by November...
English football faces a huge dilemma, one that will have massive repercussions to the Premier League and its brand name and saleability. The EPL is in danger of losing one of its Champions League spots and as it stands, unless they have a couple of really good seasons in the Champions and Europa Leagues (this season isn't looking too clever), the Italians will regain their fourth spot and the only way we'd get a fourth spot is to win the previous season's Europa League - not impossible, but on current evidence, not probable either.
You all need to be aware that every season since the EPL was created and further back, the top 4 have always been four of the five sides with the highest goal difference and 90% of the time the 'other' team with a high goal difference has finished in 5th or 6th place (so has gained a European spot of some kind). This little factoid is important when you look at the current league table. The current top 6 are pretty much nailed on (historically) to finish roughly in this order:
Obviously Liverpool (under Klopp) and Everton (draw too many) will fancy their chances and Palace and Watford - both having above-average seasons - will also fancy their chances, but unless the Hammers or Man U discover top 4 consistency between now and May, this top four will be playing for the EPL in next season's Champions League, while two of three will go into the Europa depending on who wins the League and FA Cup.
On Wednesday, the surprise package of the 21st century Leicester City beat my Spurs to go joint top of the Premier League with the hated Arse. It is about the fifth time this season Leicester have either been top or shared it with someone. They haven't done what every pundit in the country has forecast; they haven't fallen to pieces. They had a blip; that blip consisted of three games without scoring, but they still only lost once - so only really a blip if you're one of the elite top four clubs; 12 months ago Nigel Pearson would have bitten your hand off for two points from three games.
I know a couple of Leicester fans and the mixture of amazement and elation is etched on their faces; they can't quite believe it and the longer it goes on the more that disbelief is compounded - they aren't getting complacent or blasé, they're just getting more convinced they're in a dream and they'll wake up with Chelsea, Man City and Arsenal fighting it out at the top and Leicester already relegated, in November. I think Leicester's story has been incredible. I wasn't even pissed off they beat us at home and prevented/pushed back our own unlikely challenge for the top, but in reality, as much as I hate to say it, I kind of wish they'd been relegated by November...
English football faces a huge dilemma, one that will have massive repercussions to the Premier League and its brand name and saleability. The EPL is in danger of losing one of its Champions League spots and as it stands, unless they have a couple of really good seasons in the Champions and Europa Leagues (this season isn't looking too clever), the Italians will regain their fourth spot and the only way we'd get a fourth spot is to win the previous season's Europa League - not impossible, but on current evidence, not probable either.
You all need to be aware that every season since the EPL was created and further back, the top 4 have always been four of the five sides with the highest goal difference and 90% of the time the 'other' team with a high goal difference has finished in 5th or 6th place (so has gained a European spot of some kind). This little factoid is important when you look at the current league table. The current top 6 are pretty much nailed on (historically) to finish roughly in this order:
| P | Team | GP | W | D | L | F | A | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 21 | 13 | 4 | 4 | 37 | 21 | 16 | 43 | ||
| 2 | 21 | 12 | 7 | 2 | 38 | 25 | 13 | 43 | ||
| 3 | 21 | 12 | 4 | 5 | 39 | 21 | 18 | 40 | ||
| 4 | 21 | 9 | 9 | 3 | 34 | 17 | 17 | 36 | ||
| 5 | 21 | 9 | 8 | 4 | 33 | 24 | 9 | 35 | ||
| 6 | 21 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 27 | 20 | 7 | 34 | ||
| 7 | 21 | 9 | 5 | 7 | 24 | 22 | 2 | 32 |
With respect to teams in the Europa League, their results will be important, but it'll be the four teams, next season, in the CL that will have the fate of English football on their hands. Can you imagine how much of a change only having three teams in the CL will be to the entire set-up of our league? But, look at that top 7 again - Leicester, West Ham, Stoke, even Spurs? The fact that Liverpool and Everton are fighting it out for 8th at the moment puts a little bit of surreal perspective on the entire season - this might not be a blip; this season might not be a fluke.
Stoke have players like Bojan, Shaqiri, Butland and Anautovic - these aren't Stoke players! These are borderline world class footballers who, you would think, would be vying for a move to Manchester or London, not the Potteries!
On the counter of that is Leicester - apart from Gokan Inler - who can't even make the starting XI - you'd be hard pressed to find anyone who would walk into a Champions League side, yet they're suddenly Greece in terms of team spirit and playing the style that suits the players. If they win the league, which everyone agrees they won't, they will be the breath of fresh air everyone has needed after years and years of domination by the money clubs and they might as well win it, because evidence now suggests they're nailed on for a top four finish, which means they will be playing more than European Cup rugby in Leicester next season.
The Foxes will need to invest £100million+ between now and September 1st; they cannot possibly hope to compete on any level having to play a minimum extra 8 games between between September and December and the irony is with TV deal they probably have £1billion to spend on players (if they could), but it doesn't matter how much money they have, they're going to have to increase the squad by 25% and these players can't be unproven now. They can afford to gamble, but teams spend years trying to get what they suddenly have on their doorsteps.
Even if Leicester declare themselves one of the new four elite clubs and buy Messi, that is still no guarantee they'll either get through a qualifier or the group stage. This is the Champions League and it took Man City three attempts to not look totally out of their depth. Spurs have previous in this competition but not for a while and now without Bale, Modric, King... an entire team apart from Kyle Walker. I want CL football for my club, but we're no nailed quarter finalists (which is pretty much what all four English clubs need to achieve and hope the Italians struggle to do anything) even as good as we can be.
Suddenly the fantastically competitive and totally unexpected Premier League is only looking attractive to the neutral and the fans; Richard Scudamore must be cacking his trousers at the thought of no Chelsea or Man Utd in the CL and all of our hopes resting on Arsenal and Man City - both with wonderful records in said competition.
If the Premier League isn't even competitive enough to get four spots, how can it promote itself as the best league in the world? Oh, yes, the billions of quids slushing around and suddenly instead of sounding like a twat, Alan Sugar sounds almost prophetic.
I really like Leicester - the city and the football team (I have little time for the Tigers, tbh) - but I'd like to see them plummet into, at best, a Europa League spot because the future of English participation in Europe possibly hinges on them collapsing.
Now, ordinarily that'd be it, except I don't think Leicester are going to slump and even if they do the teams all around them have been up and down like the Assyrian Empire, so there's no guarantee anyone outside of the top four could overhaul them on current evidence. Everyone, including the pundits, will be 'over the moon, Brian' about it all and Claudio will win manager of the year, much to the chagrin of Arsene, who just led Arsenal to their first title in 11 years.
If that happens, what do they do?
Let's say the top four is how it is now at the end of the season. I'm not sure if it's next season or the one after when Spurs are playing at Stadium: MK, but that is on the horizon and could have unexpected effects on the team and those playing there; even if they're not it means Daniel Levy will have to either invest in some more players or hope he employs better physios than we've had in previous regimes. Even with a team full of international bright young things, Spurs' lack of real depth is beginning to show and of the top four they look the most likely to stutter and fall of any of them.
This means Leicester will have to spend. Ranieri has a lot of experience in the CL so that won't be an issue and if they can continue to play the way they do you'd fancy their chances, but you know that it's going to be ridiculously hard juggling the two for a side that a year ago were nailed on relegated; it is for the 'best' teams.
This means that we are going to lose our fourth spot because of coefficients and the only way to regain it would be to target the Europa League, because if this season isn't a fluke then there are going to be more Leicesters appearing on the horizon. In case you hadn't noticed, Bournemouth are making a fist of staying in the Premier league. That's B-O-U-R-N-E-M-O-U-T-H for people who don't understand the statement. Pre-season everyone was queuing up to tell you just how fast Watford were going to get relegated, especially given they usually swap managers every six games (and still got promoted) and yet Watford must fancy their chances of getting a Europa spot given that everyone around them is losing to each other.
Even Man City, with their side of almost Galacticos, are getting undone far more often than you'd expect and I get the impression Pep Guardiola is going to be joining the league at a time when it doesn't matter if your team is owned by a multi-billionaire, there's so much money about it doesn't matter who you play for as long as you don't get relegated and that means everyone has a chance of doing better than before.
You'd think that would be good for the game? You'd be hard pressed to argue against it especially if you support teams like Spurs, Everton, Liverpool, Leicester, Derby, Coventry, Hartlepool, Kettering Town ... Because the playing field would, finally, level out at the top and instead of a 'quadropoly' there'd be that thing that every football fan wants - a chance.
Except, what happens when our three CL spots are in danger of becoming two? Admittedly, at the moment, that's a long way from happening and I expect it would be highly unlikely to happen; but what happens when Man Utd, Chelsea, even Man City are no longer guaranteed a place in the lucrative European campaigns because everyone gets a billion quid a year from the Premier League deals and it doesn't matter how much money a sheik throws at you, Bill from Liverpool, or Fred from Scunthorpe can do the same. If a new team gets the chance to play CL football every couple of years and screws up our coefficient will plummet faster than Portsmouth have since winning the FA cup.
These major clubs are still bigger global brands and therefore hold a lot of power. FIFA is in such disarray that many are saying a new world body is needed to replace the tainted FIFA brand. UEFA's chief is suspended on corruption charges and anyone and everyone knows UEFA is only interested in generating money and when FIFA is done with, I expect UEFA will be next.
The brand name clubs will want to form their own superstar leagues and the lure of money will create them; but as BT has discovered, they might have bought into football at 'peak football'; for the first time since Sky came onto the scene the uptake of cable/satellite has slowed and because austerity is biting even modestly wealthy homes, more and more people are giving up their Virgin or Sky packages in favour of Freeview and hard drive recorders with Internet access and unless the government can police the internet completely, you will always find a feed or a stream for a live Premier League match. The time to create a new European Super League might have been 10 years ago.
That leaves teams from Manchester and Liverpool, London and Birmingham playing more and more exhibition and meaningless foreign competitions - ala the Harlem Globetrotters - and exhausting their galacticos and rendering them less than useful for FA International competitions such as whatever World Cup reappears and European Championships.
This could all happen if England's coefficient drops to a level that means we become second tier qualifiers. It might not, but if we lose that guaranteed 4th spot - and we are more likely to than not as it stands - can you see the Premier League doing anything to aid the European qualifiers in their attempts to win or at least challenge in both competitions? No, of course you can't because the EPL is in the thrall of the television companies and their schedules and it will always be that way while TV bankrolls football.
The reason English clubs have treated the Europa League like a diseased tramp while European teams treat it with dignity and respect is the stress it places on the teams involved; forget all the stats and arguments, it's quite simple, at some point the difference in value became more important than a trophy. The teams that finish 5th-7th and/or with the cups simply couldn't afford the depth of squad the top four could to be able to feel comfortable on both fronts - they maybe can now, but there's a mindset in place and that Thursday-Sunday catch up does have psychological effects and stats have proved this. Spurs winning the league this year would go a long way to dispelling this theory...
The problem is you can't change things because the TV companies don't want to. Maybe losing a 4th spot might be the catalyst for common sense to return to football finances; the problem is do any of us think that is likely to happen? No. And if all this happens it'll be because of Leicester. The price of their success could be far-reaching, but there's one thing all the pundits are ignoring - if Leicester do the unthinkable, perhaps they will play well in Europe and maintain a challenge. There's only one way to find out.
Monday, 28 September 2015
Finding the Groove is one thing...
... But keeping it is another.
Spurs have shown a few times in recent years the flare of the dynamic Redknapp year(s), except on Saturday what they did was in many ways leaps and bounds ahead of what you would have expected Bale, Modric, VDV and co to have done because these were kids, products of youth academies, as are most footballers, but these are playing on one of the toughest stages in the world and beating the world beaters.
Last year, Kane and co., disposed of Chelsea in a similar cavalier fashion, but the defence last year had pockets that got picked, a lot. Against an arguably much better Man City side, Spurs came back from a seemingly desperate situation - they might have only been 1-0 down, but they were second best to City in almost every department, while, remarkably, not looking half bad - City were just up for it and if it hadn't been for Captain Marveaux Hugo Lloris, we could have been 3 or 4 down and finding out just how much character this young team has.
Instead, the rub of the green evened out and we got a goal from a position that should have been a free kick for the opposition and Eric Dier continued to silence the people who don't believe he has the ability to be a holding midfielder with a cracking, skidding, half-volley that pinged in off the post and you know what they say about a goal on the stroke of half-time?
Over the last couple of years, I hate to admit it, but this is a fixture I tend to make sure I'm out for. The number of times in recent years I've checked my phone and my heart has sunk at the amount of goals we've shipped. This year, the early kick off meant I had no real excuse, so I sat down to the second half expecting a rear-guard action and probably us losing valiantly to an injury time winner from Toure or bloody Raheem Sterling and the second half started exactly how I expected it, except... instead of sitting back, we took the game to City and started probing them with a lot of unexpected forward balls.
There was a point at 2-1 when instead of panicking I watched the dodgy feed and thought, "we're going to tear them apart; they look utterly lost." And that's what happened; the 4-1 score line actually could have been more had the linesman been consistent and allowed Son's offside goal and the hapless City keeper not actually done his job a couple of times. The other thing that made me happy was our substitutions seemed to benefit from the team playing so well, because N'Jie looks a dazzling proposition and suddenly the question marks over our goalscoring capabilities are forgotten.
The performance was stunning and now, the question a lot, if not most, of the supporters are thinking is 'can we keep it up?' This has always been the problem with Spurs, but let's just have a look at the improvement. They were the better side at Old Trafford and lost by an own goal; they ran out of steam against Stoke and Leicester were arguably the better side but they came away with a difficult point. The Sunderland and Palace victories might have been 1-0 but both of them were, shout it, victories, and as The Arse will contest, any victory is 3 points.
So far the team looked like it was in need of clicking; there were good individual performances but also mistakes and you have to expect that from any team at the start of the season and more savvy teams will benefit not just from that but also from lapses of concentration that a younger side might be more prone to do, especially when they're coasting to victory. When it has clicked the team have looked good, they just haven't finished moves and that led to the single striker furore when the transfer window closed. I think we saw as near as damn it Pochettino's starting 11 on Saturday and it's going to be tough for Mason and Bentaleb to break back into that when they're fit, because Deli Alli plays with an assurance that belies his age (he's 19) and Eric Dier looks the part more and more every game and all that must thrill Roy Hodgson.
In fact, watching Spurs must really please any advocate of playing youth and watching them succeed; because let's not dismiss this win, it was a crushing defeat for a would-be champion side and it was done with a style that would have made the casual observer think that it was Spurs who would be there in May and not City. There have been false dawns aplenty in my life as a Spurs fan, but there is something extremely likeable about this young side and something that teams are going to start fearing. A top 4 spot is a long way away, but if teams such as Liverpool and especially Chelsea don't start stringing together results and we do, then two of our rivals for that spot will be playing catch up and against this hungry and ambitious bunch of kids that's not going to be easy.
It's the 'inferior' opposition they need to worry about; because if teams don't give players like Lamela the room to prove his worth the frustrations mount again. Pochettino needs to address our weakness in being unable to consistently beat teams we should be beating, specifically at home. It would be nice to turn White Hart Lane into a fortress just once before we move to the new stadium and that will only happen if they don't get complacent against sides they think they should be beating. That's the final - missing - piece in the jigsaw and none of the previous managers have been able to find it.
Spurs have shown a few times in recent years the flare of the dynamic Redknapp year(s), except on Saturday what they did was in many ways leaps and bounds ahead of what you would have expected Bale, Modric, VDV and co to have done because these were kids, products of youth academies, as are most footballers, but these are playing on one of the toughest stages in the world and beating the world beaters.
Last year, Kane and co., disposed of Chelsea in a similar cavalier fashion, but the defence last year had pockets that got picked, a lot. Against an arguably much better Man City side, Spurs came back from a seemingly desperate situation - they might have only been 1-0 down, but they were second best to City in almost every department, while, remarkably, not looking half bad - City were just up for it and if it hadn't been for Captain Marveaux Hugo Lloris, we could have been 3 or 4 down and finding out just how much character this young team has.
Instead, the rub of the green evened out and we got a goal from a position that should have been a free kick for the opposition and Eric Dier continued to silence the people who don't believe he has the ability to be a holding midfielder with a cracking, skidding, half-volley that pinged in off the post and you know what they say about a goal on the stroke of half-time?
Over the last couple of years, I hate to admit it, but this is a fixture I tend to make sure I'm out for. The number of times in recent years I've checked my phone and my heart has sunk at the amount of goals we've shipped. This year, the early kick off meant I had no real excuse, so I sat down to the second half expecting a rear-guard action and probably us losing valiantly to an injury time winner from Toure or bloody Raheem Sterling and the second half started exactly how I expected it, except... instead of sitting back, we took the game to City and started probing them with a lot of unexpected forward balls.
There was a point at 2-1 when instead of panicking I watched the dodgy feed and thought, "we're going to tear them apart; they look utterly lost." And that's what happened; the 4-1 score line actually could have been more had the linesman been consistent and allowed Son's offside goal and the hapless City keeper not actually done his job a couple of times. The other thing that made me happy was our substitutions seemed to benefit from the team playing so well, because N'Jie looks a dazzling proposition and suddenly the question marks over our goalscoring capabilities are forgotten.
The performance was stunning and now, the question a lot, if not most, of the supporters are thinking is 'can we keep it up?' This has always been the problem with Spurs, but let's just have a look at the improvement. They were the better side at Old Trafford and lost by an own goal; they ran out of steam against Stoke and Leicester were arguably the better side but they came away with a difficult point. The Sunderland and Palace victories might have been 1-0 but both of them were, shout it, victories, and as The Arse will contest, any victory is 3 points.
So far the team looked like it was in need of clicking; there were good individual performances but also mistakes and you have to expect that from any team at the start of the season and more savvy teams will benefit not just from that but also from lapses of concentration that a younger side might be more prone to do, especially when they're coasting to victory. When it has clicked the team have looked good, they just haven't finished moves and that led to the single striker furore when the transfer window closed. I think we saw as near as damn it Pochettino's starting 11 on Saturday and it's going to be tough for Mason and Bentaleb to break back into that when they're fit, because Deli Alli plays with an assurance that belies his age (he's 19) and Eric Dier looks the part more and more every game and all that must thrill Roy Hodgson.
In fact, watching Spurs must really please any advocate of playing youth and watching them succeed; because let's not dismiss this win, it was a crushing defeat for a would-be champion side and it was done with a style that would have made the casual observer think that it was Spurs who would be there in May and not City. There have been false dawns aplenty in my life as a Spurs fan, but there is something extremely likeable about this young side and something that teams are going to start fearing. A top 4 spot is a long way away, but if teams such as Liverpool and especially Chelsea don't start stringing together results and we do, then two of our rivals for that spot will be playing catch up and against this hungry and ambitious bunch of kids that's not going to be easy.
It's the 'inferior' opposition they need to worry about; because if teams don't give players like Lamela the room to prove his worth the frustrations mount again. Pochettino needs to address our weakness in being unable to consistently beat teams we should be beating, specifically at home. It would be nice to turn White Hart Lane into a fortress just once before we move to the new stadium and that will only happen if they don't get complacent against sides they think they should be beating. That's the final - missing - piece in the jigsaw and none of the previous managers have been able to find it.
Wednesday, 2 September 2015
Windows
The transfer window has slammed shut again and this time around it has been more the deals that didn't happen that dominate the news headlines. There are five teams that have been highlighted for their failures in the window - Man Utd, Arsenal, Chelsea, Spurs and Real Madrid. The first and the last are in the news because of the David De Gea debacle, the other three have been criticised for their lack of transfer activity. Chelsea bought a bunch of people, loaned a bunch out and not one pundit thinks they've had a good window. Arsenal bought one player - just one - a world class goalkeeper (possibly). Spurs played hardball and got shafted - karma's wheel and all that...
Let's start with Man Utd. I'm going to buck the trend here and suggest this was possibly the best bit of transfer business done all window. Look at De Gea - he's out of contract next summer and will leave (unless he signs a new contract which is unlikely), but what was on offer was a lot of money and a keeper who isn't world class. What was also on offer was Man Utd's best player of the last two years going to one of United's main Champions League rivals - they might not win this competition but they weren't about to help the favourites for it increase their own chances. De Gea wants to be Spain's keeper in next year's Euros, to ensure that he needs to be playing and playing well, so United get their star keeper back for another season and it gives them a year to identify (and tap up) the replacement. There are lots of disgruntled people and journalists looking at the blame game and how this has been a joke; I think LVG and the United board have been shrewd - it's not like a club like Man Utd can't afford to lose a transfer fee if it means the money will come from another source.
Chelsea - apparently stole Pedro from under Man U's noses and he is likely to be a good acquisition. The rest just seemed to confirm that Chelsea want more players than they'll ever need and will loan them strategically so they barely have any impact against the main team. Chelsea are complacent and have a sense of self-belief that is being shaken by events - they will come good and shouldn't be written off. The season is only four games old.
Arsenal are coming in for more criticism than Spurs, yet on paper you wouldn't write this team off at the moment. Some major clubs stutter at the start of the season because the opposition are playing for impetus - the quality Arsenal have will shine through faster than you think and by Christmas, when the next window is about to open, Arsenal will have made light of their inactivity.
Spurs and the reasons for why they are where they are at the moment is clear - despite what has been said, Spurs are treading water and the stadium and development of Northumberland Road has now become the most important thing on Daniel Levy's mind. Had the management been clear that the next few years would be tough and depend on academy graduates there would have been a backlash but we would have known and it would have been a kick in the teeth but it would have at least given us some hope that someone in the club sees quality in the ranks and enough to ensure that a top half is ensured. But they didn't and we are short in key positions because the club wanted to get rid of all of its deadwood.
To face the next few months with what is essentially a threadbare squad is quite frightening. Spurs have had an indifferent start to the season, drawing three and losing to an own goal at Old Trafford. The next three league games could be tough - Sunderland away could be a banana skin waiting to happen because Sunderland are already fighting for their lives. Crystal Palace at home would have been considered a banker once upon a time, but Pardew has worked wonders at the club and now they're not even thought of as relegation fodder; they have also had a good start to the season and they have some momentum. Then it's Man City in Manchester and the Spurs side made up of mainly hot prospects will be pushed, pulled and possibly torn apart, especially if early goals are conceded. During this period we also start the Europa League and play Arsenal in the League Cup - it is an incredibly crucial period for this young side and if it doesn't go right for them then heads will drop. We will see whether Pochettino has what it takes to turn things around - history suggests he might struggle.
The newest additions - Clinton N'Jie and the Korean (whose name will eventually roll off my tongue and into the keyboard) are really nothing special - I say this because neither has played in the Premiership and at Spurs we know the term 'bedding in' better than most - we are the bedding club. That leaves Spurs with one recognised striker and a possible 60 odd games this season and the Euro Championship following in the summer, if Kane remains in Roy's plans.
The fact that Spurs are going into the next few months with Erik Lamela still at the club fills people with a lot of dread. His contributions to the team have been less significant than some of the club's most famous flops and the fact that Pochettino wants to keep him says more about Levy's lack of backing him than anything else. Arsenal fans are almost apoplectic about their club's inactivity, but they have a bloody decent starting XI and a fair few fringe players who would walk into most teams; Spurs have potential and little else.
As a fan I've watched clubs that historically are not serious competition to Spurs and their aspirations buy players with Champions League quality and early enough to hit the ground running. I've watched this largely inexperienced Spurs throw leads away and threaten but not score against quality teams that know how to play against predictable formations and systems.
But it is early days and we were never going to threaten for the title so the setbacks and dropped points need some perspective. Two of the 'nailed on' top four teams are just above us and realistically clubs like Palace, Leicester and Swansea should start to even out and slip down the table - the natural order is expected to assert itself... but... could this season throw up some shocks for a change? Will complacency have devastating effects on some of the top clubs? The table will make interesting reading at Christmas.
Let's start with Man Utd. I'm going to buck the trend here and suggest this was possibly the best bit of transfer business done all window. Look at De Gea - he's out of contract next summer and will leave (unless he signs a new contract which is unlikely), but what was on offer was a lot of money and a keeper who isn't world class. What was also on offer was Man Utd's best player of the last two years going to one of United's main Champions League rivals - they might not win this competition but they weren't about to help the favourites for it increase their own chances. De Gea wants to be Spain's keeper in next year's Euros, to ensure that he needs to be playing and playing well, so United get their star keeper back for another season and it gives them a year to identify (and tap up) the replacement. There are lots of disgruntled people and journalists looking at the blame game and how this has been a joke; I think LVG and the United board have been shrewd - it's not like a club like Man Utd can't afford to lose a transfer fee if it means the money will come from another source.
Chelsea - apparently stole Pedro from under Man U's noses and he is likely to be a good acquisition. The rest just seemed to confirm that Chelsea want more players than they'll ever need and will loan them strategically so they barely have any impact against the main team. Chelsea are complacent and have a sense of self-belief that is being shaken by events - they will come good and shouldn't be written off. The season is only four games old.
Arsenal are coming in for more criticism than Spurs, yet on paper you wouldn't write this team off at the moment. Some major clubs stutter at the start of the season because the opposition are playing for impetus - the quality Arsenal have will shine through faster than you think and by Christmas, when the next window is about to open, Arsenal will have made light of their inactivity.
Spurs and the reasons for why they are where they are at the moment is clear - despite what has been said, Spurs are treading water and the stadium and development of Northumberland Road has now become the most important thing on Daniel Levy's mind. Had the management been clear that the next few years would be tough and depend on academy graduates there would have been a backlash but we would have known and it would have been a kick in the teeth but it would have at least given us some hope that someone in the club sees quality in the ranks and enough to ensure that a top half is ensured. But they didn't and we are short in key positions because the club wanted to get rid of all of its deadwood.
To face the next few months with what is essentially a threadbare squad is quite frightening. Spurs have had an indifferent start to the season, drawing three and losing to an own goal at Old Trafford. The next three league games could be tough - Sunderland away could be a banana skin waiting to happen because Sunderland are already fighting for their lives. Crystal Palace at home would have been considered a banker once upon a time, but Pardew has worked wonders at the club and now they're not even thought of as relegation fodder; they have also had a good start to the season and they have some momentum. Then it's Man City in Manchester and the Spurs side made up of mainly hot prospects will be pushed, pulled and possibly torn apart, especially if early goals are conceded. During this period we also start the Europa League and play Arsenal in the League Cup - it is an incredibly crucial period for this young side and if it doesn't go right for them then heads will drop. We will see whether Pochettino has what it takes to turn things around - history suggests he might struggle.
The newest additions - Clinton N'Jie and the Korean (whose name will eventually roll off my tongue and into the keyboard) are really nothing special - I say this because neither has played in the Premiership and at Spurs we know the term 'bedding in' better than most - we are the bedding club. That leaves Spurs with one recognised striker and a possible 60 odd games this season and the Euro Championship following in the summer, if Kane remains in Roy's plans.
The fact that Spurs are going into the next few months with Erik Lamela still at the club fills people with a lot of dread. His contributions to the team have been less significant than some of the club's most famous flops and the fact that Pochettino wants to keep him says more about Levy's lack of backing him than anything else. Arsenal fans are almost apoplectic about their club's inactivity, but they have a bloody decent starting XI and a fair few fringe players who would walk into most teams; Spurs have potential and little else.
As a fan I've watched clubs that historically are not serious competition to Spurs and their aspirations buy players with Champions League quality and early enough to hit the ground running. I've watched this largely inexperienced Spurs throw leads away and threaten but not score against quality teams that know how to play against predictable formations and systems.
But it is early days and we were never going to threaten for the title so the setbacks and dropped points need some perspective. Two of the 'nailed on' top four teams are just above us and realistically clubs like Palace, Leicester and Swansea should start to even out and slip down the table - the natural order is expected to assert itself... but... could this season throw up some shocks for a change? Will complacency have devastating effects on some of the top clubs? The table will make interesting reading at Christmas.
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