On Wednesday, the surprise package of the 21st century Leicester City beat my Spurs to go joint top of the Premier League with the hated Arse. It is about the fifth time this season Leicester have either been top or shared it with someone. They haven't done what every pundit in the country has forecast; they haven't fallen to pieces. They had a blip; that blip consisted of three games without scoring, but they still only lost once - so only really a blip if you're one of the elite top four clubs; 12 months ago Nigel Pearson would have bitten your hand off for two points from three games.
I know a couple of Leicester fans and the mixture of amazement and elation is etched on their faces; they can't quite believe it and the longer it goes on the more that disbelief is compounded - they aren't getting complacent or blasé, they're just getting more convinced they're in a dream and they'll wake up with Chelsea, Man City and Arsenal fighting it out at the top and Leicester already relegated, in November. I think Leicester's story has been incredible. I wasn't even pissed off they beat us at home and prevented/pushed back our own unlikely challenge for the top, but in reality, as much as I hate to say it, I kind of wish they'd been relegated by November...
English football faces a huge dilemma, one that will have massive repercussions to the Premier League and its brand name and saleability. The EPL is in danger of losing one of its Champions League spots and as it stands, unless they have a couple of really good seasons in the Champions and Europa Leagues (this season isn't looking too clever), the Italians will regain their fourth spot and the only way we'd get a fourth spot is to win the previous season's Europa League - not impossible, but on current evidence, not probable either.
You all need to be aware that every season since the EPL was created and further back, the top 4 have always been four of the five sides with the highest goal difference and 90% of the time the 'other' team with a high goal difference has finished in 5th or 6th place (so has gained a European spot of some kind). This little factoid is important when you look at the current league table. The current top 6 are pretty much nailed on (historically) to finish roughly in this order:
| P | Team | GP | W | D | L | F | A | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 21 | 13 | 4 | 4 | 37 | 21 | 16 | 43 | ||
| 2 | 21 | 12 | 7 | 2 | 38 | 25 | 13 | 43 | ||
| 3 | 21 | 12 | 4 | 5 | 39 | 21 | 18 | 40 | ||
| 4 | 21 | 9 | 9 | 3 | 34 | 17 | 17 | 36 | ||
| 5 | 21 | 9 | 8 | 4 | 33 | 24 | 9 | 35 | ||
| 6 | 21 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 27 | 20 | 7 | 34 | ||
| 7 | 21 | 9 | 5 | 7 | 24 | 22 | 2 | 32 |
With respect to teams in the Europa League, their results will be important, but it'll be the four teams, next season, in the CL that will have the fate of English football on their hands. Can you imagine how much of a change only having three teams in the CL will be to the entire set-up of our league? But, look at that top 7 again - Leicester, West Ham, Stoke, even Spurs? The fact that Liverpool and Everton are fighting it out for 8th at the moment puts a little bit of surreal perspective on the entire season - this might not be a blip; this season might not be a fluke.
Stoke have players like Bojan, Shaqiri, Butland and Anautovic - these aren't Stoke players! These are borderline world class footballers who, you would think, would be vying for a move to Manchester or London, not the Potteries!
On the counter of that is Leicester - apart from Gokan Inler - who can't even make the starting XI - you'd be hard pressed to find anyone who would walk into a Champions League side, yet they're suddenly Greece in terms of team spirit and playing the style that suits the players. If they win the league, which everyone agrees they won't, they will be the breath of fresh air everyone has needed after years and years of domination by the money clubs and they might as well win it, because evidence now suggests they're nailed on for a top four finish, which means they will be playing more than European Cup rugby in Leicester next season.
The Foxes will need to invest £100million+ between now and September 1st; they cannot possibly hope to compete on any level having to play a minimum extra 8 games between between September and December and the irony is with TV deal they probably have £1billion to spend on players (if they could), but it doesn't matter how much money they have, they're going to have to increase the squad by 25% and these players can't be unproven now. They can afford to gamble, but teams spend years trying to get what they suddenly have on their doorsteps.
Even if Leicester declare themselves one of the new four elite clubs and buy Messi, that is still no guarantee they'll either get through a qualifier or the group stage. This is the Champions League and it took Man City three attempts to not look totally out of their depth. Spurs have previous in this competition but not for a while and now without Bale, Modric, King... an entire team apart from Kyle Walker. I want CL football for my club, but we're no nailed quarter finalists (which is pretty much what all four English clubs need to achieve and hope the Italians struggle to do anything) even as good as we can be.
Suddenly the fantastically competitive and totally unexpected Premier League is only looking attractive to the neutral and the fans; Richard Scudamore must be cacking his trousers at the thought of no Chelsea or Man Utd in the CL and all of our hopes resting on Arsenal and Man City - both with wonderful records in said competition.
If the Premier League isn't even competitive enough to get four spots, how can it promote itself as the best league in the world? Oh, yes, the billions of quids slushing around and suddenly instead of sounding like a twat, Alan Sugar sounds almost prophetic.
I really like Leicester - the city and the football team (I have little time for the Tigers, tbh) - but I'd like to see them plummet into, at best, a Europa League spot because the future of English participation in Europe possibly hinges on them collapsing.
Now, ordinarily that'd be it, except I don't think Leicester are going to slump and even if they do the teams all around them have been up and down like the Assyrian Empire, so there's no guarantee anyone outside of the top four could overhaul them on current evidence. Everyone, including the pundits, will be 'over the moon, Brian' about it all and Claudio will win manager of the year, much to the chagrin of Arsene, who just led Arsenal to their first title in 11 years.
If that happens, what do they do?
Let's say the top four is how it is now at the end of the season. I'm not sure if it's next season or the one after when Spurs are playing at Stadium: MK, but that is on the horizon and could have unexpected effects on the team and those playing there; even if they're not it means Daniel Levy will have to either invest in some more players or hope he employs better physios than we've had in previous regimes. Even with a team full of international bright young things, Spurs' lack of real depth is beginning to show and of the top four they look the most likely to stutter and fall of any of them.
This means Leicester will have to spend. Ranieri has a lot of experience in the CL so that won't be an issue and if they can continue to play the way they do you'd fancy their chances, but you know that it's going to be ridiculously hard juggling the two for a side that a year ago were nailed on relegated; it is for the 'best' teams.
This means that we are going to lose our fourth spot because of coefficients and the only way to regain it would be to target the Europa League, because if this season isn't a fluke then there are going to be more Leicesters appearing on the horizon. In case you hadn't noticed, Bournemouth are making a fist of staying in the Premier league. That's B-O-U-R-N-E-M-O-U-T-H for people who don't understand the statement. Pre-season everyone was queuing up to tell you just how fast Watford were going to get relegated, especially given they usually swap managers every six games (and still got promoted) and yet Watford must fancy their chances of getting a Europa spot given that everyone around them is losing to each other.
Even Man City, with their side of almost Galacticos, are getting undone far more often than you'd expect and I get the impression Pep Guardiola is going to be joining the league at a time when it doesn't matter if your team is owned by a multi-billionaire, there's so much money about it doesn't matter who you play for as long as you don't get relegated and that means everyone has a chance of doing better than before.
You'd think that would be good for the game? You'd be hard pressed to argue against it especially if you support teams like Spurs, Everton, Liverpool, Leicester, Derby, Coventry, Hartlepool, Kettering Town ... Because the playing field would, finally, level out at the top and instead of a 'quadropoly' there'd be that thing that every football fan wants - a chance.
Except, what happens when our three CL spots are in danger of becoming two? Admittedly, at the moment, that's a long way from happening and I expect it would be highly unlikely to happen; but what happens when Man Utd, Chelsea, even Man City are no longer guaranteed a place in the lucrative European campaigns because everyone gets a billion quid a year from the Premier League deals and it doesn't matter how much money a sheik throws at you, Bill from Liverpool, or Fred from Scunthorpe can do the same. If a new team gets the chance to play CL football every couple of years and screws up our coefficient will plummet faster than Portsmouth have since winning the FA cup.
These major clubs are still bigger global brands and therefore hold a lot of power. FIFA is in such disarray that many are saying a new world body is needed to replace the tainted FIFA brand. UEFA's chief is suspended on corruption charges and anyone and everyone knows UEFA is only interested in generating money and when FIFA is done with, I expect UEFA will be next.
The brand name clubs will want to form their own superstar leagues and the lure of money will create them; but as BT has discovered, they might have bought into football at 'peak football'; for the first time since Sky came onto the scene the uptake of cable/satellite has slowed and because austerity is biting even modestly wealthy homes, more and more people are giving up their Virgin or Sky packages in favour of Freeview and hard drive recorders with Internet access and unless the government can police the internet completely, you will always find a feed or a stream for a live Premier League match. The time to create a new European Super League might have been 10 years ago.
That leaves teams from Manchester and Liverpool, London and Birmingham playing more and more exhibition and meaningless foreign competitions - ala the Harlem Globetrotters - and exhausting their galacticos and rendering them less than useful for FA International competitions such as whatever World Cup reappears and European Championships.
This could all happen if England's coefficient drops to a level that means we become second tier qualifiers. It might not, but if we lose that guaranteed 4th spot - and we are more likely to than not as it stands - can you see the Premier League doing anything to aid the European qualifiers in their attempts to win or at least challenge in both competitions? No, of course you can't because the EPL is in the thrall of the television companies and their schedules and it will always be that way while TV bankrolls football.
The reason English clubs have treated the Europa League like a diseased tramp while European teams treat it with dignity and respect is the stress it places on the teams involved; forget all the stats and arguments, it's quite simple, at some point the difference in value became more important than a trophy. The teams that finish 5th-7th and/or with the cups simply couldn't afford the depth of squad the top four could to be able to feel comfortable on both fronts - they maybe can now, but there's a mindset in place and that Thursday-Sunday catch up does have psychological effects and stats have proved this. Spurs winning the league this year would go a long way to dispelling this theory...
The problem is you can't change things because the TV companies don't want to. Maybe losing a 4th spot might be the catalyst for common sense to return to football finances; the problem is do any of us think that is likely to happen? No. And if all this happens it'll be because of Leicester. The price of their success could be far-reaching, but there's one thing all the pundits are ignoring - if Leicester do the unthinkable, perhaps they will play well in Europe and maintain a challenge. There's only one way to find out.
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