Monday, 9 October 2017

England are Spurs (but worse)

I recently read a rant by a QPR fan that left no doubt about his (and other QPR fans) feelings towards Harry Redknapp. While discussing this rant with my friend, an Everton supporter, I came up with a theory about Redknapp that I'm now going to extrapolate on as a way of possibly explaining why the England football team's failure is probably John Terry's fault as well.

I have often cited John Terry as being the reason why Spurs completely-unexpected title challenge in 2012 withered on the vine and died spectacularly - within weeks of punters daring to suggest that Harry's team could possibly do it. Terry's racism caused Fabio Capello to leave the England job and while I don't think he was anywhere near the best man for the job, his leaving caused the widespread expectation that Harry Redknapp would replace him and do to England what he appeared to be doing at Tottenham.

Harry, as some fans and commentators claimed, was good until 'Daniel Levy fucked him over in January 2012' and Harry has always claimed - mainly off camera - that he asked for two players to help give Spurs a chance of winning the title (they were 2nd in January 2012 and even Paul Merson was talking about them being stalking horses) and he asked for Carlos Tevez and a top class defender. He got Ryan Nelson and Louis Saha, combined age about 170. Spurs ended up finishing 5th and I think, from memory, they took about 7 points between February and May - it was heartbreaking to watch and many Spurs fans conveniently forget that not so illustrious last few months of Harry's reign.

There were many other factors at work than listed above. There was family tragedy, a fraud case, some or unfortunate bad timing with contract talks and, of course, when Capello quit and the press installed him as the 'only' replacement, it obviously went to his head. The fact that the FA, in its infinite stupidity, chose Roy Hodgson probably put paid to Harry's career and ruined the national side's chances of being something other than one of the regular teams who make numbers up at competitions.

Roy's period in charge was a strange blend of unbeatable and unwinnable. In qualifications England were dull but imperious. At the World Cup and then the Euros - even without extra pressure from the media - they were woeful and reinforced the view that whenever England does something positive, it will follow it up with something worse than ludicrous. When an England manager decides that Harry Kane should be taking corners you know that he isn't the man who should be doing the job...

What if Harry Redknapp had got the job he wanted? My belief is when he failed to get the England job it kind of killed his desire. Spurs faded badly and he's done nothing of note since. In fact, his stock fell so badly at Birmingham that it's probably a good thing he's 70 and in need of retirement. When he was being touted as Fabio's replacement, Spurs were playing some stunning football - yes, they had Bale, Modric, Van der Vaart, an almost Ledley King and players who gelled well with the stars, but Harry had brought Spurs on from an upper mid-table team to genuine top 4 challengers and while his tactical management left a lot to be desired, his man-management brought the best out of mediocre players - the perfect man for an England job, surely?

Had Daniel Levy not been a plonker - he was pretty much solely responsible for Spurs failure to do anything but become a joke in 2012 - he could have got £250,000 from the FA, got shot of a man he didn't really like and got the same end result, but maybe a year earlier. But he didn't and Roy got the job and I don't think there was one England fan in the country who looked at his appointment and got a hard on for our future prospects.

I'm not going to attempt to presume the hypothetical, but I can't help thinking that playing for England would suddenly have become important again - like it might have if Brian Clough had ever seriously been considered in the 1970s, the last time England were really awful. Reading some autobiographies and historical reports, you got the impression that under Ron Greenwood and Bobby Robson, England felt like a team not a collection of individuals. Graham Taylor set us back when we should have gone forward, Venables took us forward and should never have been sacked. Hoddle might have become something special had the press not picked up on his 'eccentricities' and from that point on, we simply flattered to deceive. Apart from the 5-1 win in Germany (which was the catalyst they needed to reform their game), I can't see anything fond to look back on from Keegan onward.

I think you don't necessarily have to be a world class team to win a competition - Greece and Denmark have proved that - but you do need a coach who can look at what he's got and make them work together for the good of the team. I don't think we've had a coach since Venables who has done that. Obviously, Harry's reign would have had to have been done without wheeler-dealing; he couldn't just go and buy a journeyman Romanian to slot into left back in a crisis; but he might have taken a young English left back and slotted him into an existing set up smoothly; put an arm round his shoulders and told him that he wasn't going to be a jinx and he wouldn't have picked him if he didn't have faith... Who knows; Harry might have been worse than Roy? I doubt it, though. My mum wouldn't have been as bad as Roy and she's been dead 20 years! Sandra Redknapp would have been better than Roy and would have scored a few poacher's goals for us after picking herself over Darren Bent.

And now it's late 2017. We're less than nine months from the next World Cup finals, which we have qualified for, in stunningly dull fashion. The most positive thing you can say about the management is Southgate is honest enough to tell everyone we're shit before it's been proved, again. The thing is I don't actually think we are that bad, we just never pick the right man to manage us and while the incumbent is trying hard, he isn't that good.

Look at the class of 2017. I'm going to throw a few names at you, see if you can guess the link: Danny Rose (when fit), Harry Kane, Eric Dier, Kieran Trippier, Dele Alli, Kyle Walker, Harry Winks? With the exception of Walker, who is now at Man City, this is Spurs. This is an England squad with more Spurs players than I can ever remember. One newspaper columnist even suggested Southgate was trying to get England to play like Spurs, and wouldn't that be something worth staying in and watching games for?

Southgate's problem is his players who aren't playing for Spurs. If Mauricio Pochettino put Jordan Henderson into his team, Sissoko would look world class. If Oxtail-Chambermaid played ahead of Alli or Eriksen, Spurs would be rubbish. Poch plays the 4-2-3-1 formation that Southgate has used in his last half a dozen qualification games (discounting the final game) and frankly playing two defensive midfielders against Malta is only going to work if those players are capable of turning up and scoring the odd goal - like Dier, Wanyama and Dembele do at Spurs. Dier in an England shirt is a bit of an enigma; he comes and goes like a troublesome bout of the trots and I think this is down to whether or not England actually need two covering midfielders against opposition Germany can beat 8-0, but we struggle to get 1-0s against.

In fact, in many ways, England's biggest puzzle at the moment is Jordan Henderson. I simply cannot understand what he is doing in an England shirt. I've watched football for a long time, I like to think that, in general, my opinions gain more agreeable responses than angry ones and I can't understand why he's there in the same way I can't understand why Sissoko is so high up in the Spurs pecking order. I hear we have a dearth of decent midfielders and this might be true; England often have no left back for a generation and five vying for the same position in the next. Look at Paul Scholes, someone who should have got 150 caps, but you know... If midfielders were really the problem I could understand it, but I think this is just scapegoating before the event.

I've seen Dele Alli play in a far more defensive midfield role for Spurs. Early last season especially and whenever he got booked. Poch would bring him deeper, give him more responsibility and not only did we stay as solid, he created a lot from a deeper position and showed much more discipline. If continuous England bosses want to play all their favourites, even if that means there are five number 10s on the pitch, then you can play an attacking midfielder in a less attacking role, surely. Eriksen can do it, Dembele can and it looks like Harry Winks can also do it. I think Alli can do it, probably better than most.

If England could play the Spurs way, it would need a solid centre and two ball-playing central defenders - as far as I can see they can just about do this, but in many ways England doesn't have Vertonghen or Alderweireld because they're Belgian, both of them... But, there are some excellent central defenders playing in 2017, getting the right partnership is key but probably doable with this group of players.

The wing backs have to be Walker and Rose, if both fit and playing the way we know they can. Here is the most dynamic wing back pairing in world football from the same country and there's this myth growing about how good they are together, which gives England an unexpected psychological advantage (for a change).

England do not have Christian Eriksen, Mousa Dembele or Victor Wanyama - at the moment they have Jordan bloody Henderson... - but they do have Eric Dier, Harry Winks, Dele Alli, who all play together at club level. I think that's the midfield problem sorted. Up front, there is a burgeoning partnership in Kane and Rashford; they can both play off each other, drop into the number 10 position and could score goals for fun (if they had a progressive midfield behind them).

I don't care who's on the subs bench as long as they can slot into that system and they can play a high press, high tempo game easily. I would also take Jordan Henderson to one side and let him down, reasonably gently.

Friday, 20 January 2017

Pep's Most Difficult Job

I fancy tempting fate. Football fans hate to tempt fate, especially Spurs fans, because it will all go wrong and for some strange reason you will think it's your fault it all went tits up. The thing is I tempted fate with a massively proportioned sex doll at the start of the season by stating, quite emphatically, that Tottenham Hotspur would win the league and then in December, after the team suffered defeat against a poor Man Utd team, I started to think my forecast was going to go the same way as other bursts of optimism in the past.

Since then Spurs have strung seven straight wins - six in the league and a rare emphatic win in the FA Cup - and each game we win the better we look. At times last weekend, against one of my club's bogey teams, we played like Brazil circa 1970 with Dele Alli as Pele and Harry Kane as Jairzinho. At times the football we play makes Barcelona look, you know, a bit, okay but nothing special. On a couple of occasions on Saturday I felt like a child being subjected to some ultimate glee-inducing fun. At one point, after one stunning move resulted in a simply wondrous disallowed goal, I clapped my hands together like a child seeing Father Christmas for the first time. There is something remarkable about the feeling you get from watching your football team play with such confidence it's almost scary - it transcends sex and just condenses into an ecstatic joy that I can only imagine my friends, who support teams that have won things, have felt.

This Spurs team scares me as much as it delights me. There is almost an entire team of potential world class footballers on display. At this moment in time I'm struggling to see a weak link in the side when it's on the same wavelength. That alone is some kind of surreal reality matched only by the weird shit that is going on in the world, add to that the first manager we have had who looks both happy and determined to do better and is doing it in a way that must give Daniel Levy almost unbearable erections of joy. I'm struggling to find any other negative than we're going to end up being much richer than we are now when all of them and the manager are bought for £1billion by another 'bigger' team.

Remember the Harlem Globetrotters - a team who, legend has it, were so good they gave up competitive basketball and just played exhibition matches against top teams they then proceeded to demolish. That's my Spurs at the moment (maybe not in Europe, but certainly within these more isolated shores).

Yet, ironically, I find myself feeling slightly sorry for one of my team's rivals and opponents this coming Saturday. Frankly, I couldn't care less if Man City crash and burn and lose their Arab owners lots of money and I, on the surface, find it hilarious that the media-proclaimed 'best manager in the world' is struggling to turn his team of expensive class into a unit that will challenge for the title.

Any harsh critic of Pep Guardiola will point out that the two teams he has managed so far, both only really had one or two serious rivals and if you need evidence that anyone can win a league in a division of one just look at Brendan Rogers at Celtic. Most people who manage Celtic get to add trophies to their CVs and act like priapic porn stars because in their league there is no competition. What Pep possibly did realise is while the Premier League has four, maybe six, likely winners, he probably didn't think the other 14 pesky teams are more than capable of upsetting the odds and beating your side. Pep probably suffered some slightly embarrassing losses in his time at Barcelona and Bayern Munich, but English football has a tendency to throw up unexpected results and City's 4-0 thumping by 'average' Everton made me feel a little sorry for him.

It really isn't his fault he's been so successful at two of the world's richest and most successful clubs. His style of football isn't bad and he's proved that with world class footballers at his disposal he can do good things; but he's never really tried to manage at a slightly lower level, where you have to show your adaptability rather than just bring on a £50m player from the bench. This is why Mauricio Pochettino is likely to end up managing one of the world's richest clubs and why he might even get something others aren't often afforded - time. This is also why Spurs' visit to Man City this weekend is so significant. First off, it's a game neither side can afford to draw or lose because with Chelsea playing easier opposition the odds are they will pull even further ahead. Secondly, and more long game, is the stock of each manager. Mauricio looks happy, relaxed and his team are playing in a way that would make any manager happy (and secure). Pep on the other hand looks like a man who has been presented with his first real problem - plucky opposition - and he's not sure what to do. The pressure is really beginning to show on him and while I don't think his job is at risk, it would be if he, as I sometimes think he might, just resigns in the middle of press conference, storming out and never seen again outside of Spain.

The third and, at present, least important thing about the game will be how many of the Spurs side will the Sheikhs be eyeing up a transfer deal for? And from a personal position, the fourth thing is can we continue our current upper hand over City? I hope we can because even 7 points behind Chelsea is a big gap, but one I think we can overcome in the next five months; 10 points might be enough to put a dent in our chrome. The loss of Jan Vertonghen is a worry, but we have able cover and usually players who come in at the back retain the rhythm. We're the better side at the moment, the mark of true champions is whether they can overcome these kind of obstacles.

Friday, 16 September 2016

Leicester City - This Year's Conspiracy Theory

“It was like all the other teams let them win.”

I heard Spurs fans make this suggestion of Leicester as their own team’s title challenge petered out. As conspiracy theories go, the other Premier League clubs letting Leicester City win the league is about as far-fetched as fake moon landings and Piltdown man.

However, I’d like to make a case for why some Spurs fans would rather come up with an excuse than face the reality of why their team didn’t win and possibly make them feel better about being cast as the villain in what shouldn’t have been a two-horse race between footballing underdogs.

There is no denying that titles are not won in August, but they are almost certainly lost and Spurs fans need to look at the 3 points from a possible 12 at the start of the season as being far more important in the grand scheme of things than the woeful capitulation from the moment Chelsea got back into the game at WHL, precipitating a collapse and some of the most unfortunate scenes on a football pitch.

Leicester’s August was not title winning, but it was effectively guaranteeing them survival and while Ranieri kept banging on about 40 points, by November he must have thought the way he had the team playing that a mid-table finish was almost guaranteed. Yet, the inconsistencies of the big clubs meant Leicester never dropped out of the reckoning, instead it fuelled the team – obviously driven by confidence – and I believe the beginning of the key factor began to nestle into the heads of the other Premier League players for the other 19 teams – including Spurs – if we don’t win it, we don’t mind Leicester winning it.

I know, if you ran this theory past Mark Lawrenson or Danny Murphy, Alan Shearer or Dion Dublin they would laugh in your face and tell you that footballers aren’t that complex and they only play to win. Except, by late January the only two teams that looked like they had the desire to win were Leicester and Spurs – both went on fabulous unbeaten runs and with Chelsea long dead in the water, Man Utd flattering to deceive and Man City and Arsenal just not showing the right amount of consistency, the impossible started to become a reality; there was a good chance that one of the big four wouldn’t win the league.

If you look at the last six games of the Premier League season 2015/16 – at the point where pundits no longer believed anyone would catch Leicester – you would have been excused had you woken up in an alternative reality where the Foxes were the dominant team and there was a fading hope of someone else resting control from them. The amount of insipid performances against them; the seeming failure of coaches and squads coming to terms with what was essentially the same tactic week in week out; had it not been for those perennial ignorers of scripts West Ham, the East Midlands would have been celebrating long before Spurs implosion against the wind-up experts Chelsea.

Aggrieved fans will point out how West Brom produced arguably their best performance of the season to put a dent in Spurs’s title challenge, or how Chelsea, devoid of passion, found bags of it to deny Spurs. The closer the Londoners got to being a threat to Leicester, the harder their opponents seemed to try.

The simple truth is Mauricio Pochettino used less players in the closing 12 weeks of the season than 18 other Premier League sides; when it came down to the nitty-gritty, the manager did a Harry Redknapp and failed to trust much more than his preferred starting XI. I can see it even now – Poch sitting at home thinking, “If I play Ryan Mason or Tom Carroll or Nacer Chadli how am I going to live with myself if we screw up and lose the league by one point; I will be forever labelled as the man who lost the league because he played someone else instead of the knackered and under-performing Christian Eriksen...” Obviously Dele Alli and Mousa Dembele didn’t help matters and neither did the arguable lack of investment in something during the previous January when we needed something – even a short term loanee – the stir it up at the club and refocus the players.

But it’s much easier to say that 18 other Premier League sides gifted Leicester the title because it makes them feel better...

Fast forward less than six months and the top 7 of the Premier League looks more like how people expect the top of the league to look: the two Manchester clubs, three London clubs and, hello, the two Liverpool teams again. The seven largest clubs in the country occupy the top 7 spots and there’s the battle for the next eight months – three of them are going to miss out on prizes.

Wednesday, 27 July 2016

The 2016/17 Football Forecast

Every year my good, dear friend Roger and I become pundits and forecast the forthcoming football season and we put it up on our joint sports blog called Sports Discuss - which, in Internet terms, was as popular as someone's soiled underpants. Abandoning that idea, we're going to publish this jointly through our own blogs, for exposure more than anything else.

We were once known as The Wippo Brothers & Clive.


As is now well know, my predictions come from Missed It Meg, the most unreliable wizard in the universe, and a seer whose stygmatism inflicted second sight peers myopically through bottle-bottom thick glasses. Meg's predictions are to reliability what the Labour Party is to credible opposition politics, or, if I have to spell it out, a fucking, here goes:
AFC Bournemouth
Will veer between 11th and 17th and could finish anywhere in that range. Already there have been seven unspectacular additions to the squad, replacing six leavers and this will mean they will remain the Premier League's yo-yo team, up and down like the Assyrian Empire. I predict they will beat Spurs at home.
As a Toffee it is always galling listening to the interminable moaning of Gooners, but I can grudgingly understand their grouching given the unspent zillions under Arsene's mattress. About time the craggy old Frenchy retired methinks, or is it Wenger's plan to peg it in the dug out?. They'll do enough to scrape 4th as ever, having at some point been top and looking unbeatable. Plus ca change...
I know as much about Burnley than I do about lathe maintenance. Bottom, I reckon...which probably means Europa League qualification beckons. Will draw with Spurs at WHL.
Blimey, that Kunte Kante fella makes Jose look reserved, does he not? Have already spent over £60m of loose change on two new players, expect more to come, who with the gesticulating bloke should probably take a while to bed in. 2nd or 3rd.
Crystal Palace
A sort of classier version of Stoke, occasionally a bit mad, just like their manager. Will hover round the Useless League places.
I was going to hold off writing this prediction thing until we had actually bought someone, but given our track record that would mean the season would be a week old already. Even with Moshiri's wallet on board it seems we have been a bit slow off the mark, the only purchase so far being Leicester's director of football. An offer has been made for Witsel who is mulling over a £100K a week contract. ho-hum.
Koeman was the guy I wanted, but then so was Martinez, so who knows what will happen.
The obvious key to any improvement is keeping hold of Lukaku, and to a lesser extent, Barkley and Stones. Never a dull moment at The Old Lady since Moyes left, for sure. We can't do any worse than last season, so I'll go for 6th and a cup!
With no Barcodes to keep us entertained this season, 'Ull are making an early bid for the title of the Premier League Comedy Club. What an omnishables! Down, down deeper and down...
My prediction for the Foxes last season, like most, was waaay off, but at least I didn't predict them to go down. Surely there's no way they can repeat last season's miracle? I reckon upper mid-table. Right, I'm off to put a tenner on them being Champions again...
Klippety is the first likeable manager the Shite have had since Houlier, and he's now forging them into his own team, with 13 (!) departures and 6 additions so far. With no Euro distractions, I'm rather scared they'll do a bit too well for my liking. Only thing stopping them is the new team bedding in. Top four likely. :(
Man City
The team who on paper should win it every year. The key word is "team", which they seldom resemble. Is "The World's Best Manager" the man who can get them playing like they recognise each other? Hands off Lukaku or Stones, ye over-monied entitled fuckers...
Man Utd
There was an early and strong rumour that The Special One would actually take up a proper challenge (my lot), but unsurprisingly he plumped for the bottomless loaned wealth of the red half of Manchester. Like their neighbours they have been very quiet in the transfer market so far, so...hands off Lukaku or Stones, ye over-monied entitled fuckers...
A similar amount of transfer activity to Bournemouth, but unlike The Cherries they do not have a year's experience behind them. Will hover around the drop zone all year, but may survive.
They can't keep rebuilding and thriving each season, surely? Summat has to give. Another hard one to call. Mid table anonymity along with...
You can tell I've had enough of this, can't you?
Just been bought by a Yank, apparently. Good track record, Yanks owning football clubs, eh? Will scrap it out with the other three teams beginning with S for 12th.
Tottenham Hotspur
A great name that sounds like it came out of a boys comic, and a team who veer between brilliant and scared of their own shadows. The loss to Bournemouth and the home draw against Burnley will be what ultimately costs them the title. At least they'll finish above Arsenal at last.

Goodbye, Vicarage Road... ;)
West Ham
A almost spanking new and virtually free new ground (the bastards), a good manager and a good squad. What could possibly go wrong? Everything, probably, knowing The Hammers.
West Brom
I thought I'd finished this thing then realised I hadn't mentioned The the mix with the "Esses".

The Table:
1. Citeh
2. Spurs
3. Liverpool
4. Arsenal
5. Man Utd
6. Chelsea
7. Everton
8. Leicester
9. Crystal Palace
10. West Ham
11. Southampton
12. Sunderland
13. Stoke
14. West Brom
15. Swansea
16. Bournemouth
17. Middlesbrough
18. Burnley
19. Watford
20. Hull
League Cup: Everton
FA Cup: Everton
Champions League: Not Everton
Useless League: Paraguay


And I, for once, am rather more measured (with a surreal caveat)...

I can't remember an impending football season with so much uncertainty about it, yet if you read the columns and listen to the early shots from the pundits you'd think it was already shaping up to be the same old same old. I don't think it will be as predictable as the experts think. For a start two new teams in the Champions League; Man Utd in the Europa Cup and a host of new managers, new players and new grounds.
Oh and for the first time since I've been doing this (must be 10 years now), you'll have to wait until the end to find out my positional predictions.

AFC Bournemouth: The problem for Eddie Howe's men is the other big problem that hounds the unexpected survivor of an almost certain relegation - Second Season Syndrome. The Cherries appear to have spent interestingly without really raising any eyebrows. The key to a second consecutive survival battle is not just who is worse but also how they improve on some excellent results last season. It's going to be tough. Animal Most Like - Possum

Arsenal: One thing you'd be silly to do is write off Arsenal as a serious top 4 contender, but if you hear some of the pre-season banter from Arsenal fans on the radio you'd think their season was over already. It would appear the lack of investment and new players has again mightily pissed off the fans, who argue, quite rightly at times, that if their team could only scrape into 2nd in a supposedly woefully inferior last season, surely some investment is needed to ensure they don't go backwards. I think they might start to go backwards, especially if injuries hit them hard early on. Animal Most Like - Wildebeest

Burnley: I really can't see this being a season with any real high points. They are not going to do a Leicester and might find themselves way off the pace from almost the word go. Will win friends and play some good football, but it just won't ever be enough. Animal Most Like - rabbit

Chelsea: With no European participation, a slew of new recruits (and more on the way) and a little more than just their pride at stake, I expect a faltering season from the former champions, but only because it will take Conte - the new man - a few months to get it right. The success of teams around them in Europe could dictate the final standings at the end of the season. Animal Most Like - Pike

Crystal Palace: Have been nothing but ambitious in transfers and targets and will fancy their chances if they hit a rich vein of form - which they are capable of, especially at home. Will be tough to beat this year and Pardew will have learnt from the second half of last season. Animal Most Like - Bald eagle

Everton: One of the real puzzles in this year's league battle. Ronald Koeman didn't so much transform Southampton as do what you'd expect a manager to do when he follows someone who has shown the team's vast improvement, he took it to the next level and Southampton sans some of arguably their best players were better without them. Koeman  also hasn't got big shoes to fill as Roberto Martinez's reign spluttered to a resounding end and a team with so much potential, in a season when they should have done so much better, was a flop. They don't appear to have signed anyone yet and despite having lots of money, this is a worry, especially if you're a Toffee's fan. Animal Most Like - Panda

Hull: A club in turmoil. Only 13 fit players in the squad. The manager has just quit and the club is essentially for sale. I'd have a fiver on them to win the league. I expect them to go down and badly but I said that about Leicester last season. Animal Most Like - Your crap dog

Leicester: And here they are, the Champions. Will they be champions in May. No. I'm positive of this. They will however begin the season like they finished last season and will remain tough to beat and difficult to play against unless you know how to close them down. A decent replacement for Kante is needed, but who was Kante last August? This is going to be as tough as old boots for them. Animal Most Like - Lupus Lupus

Liverpool: No Europe and we all remember what happened last time that happened? This time they have Jurgen Klopp, a lot of his style of players and definite signs at times towards the end of last season that a new ethos was taking shape at Anfield. This team, for the first time in years, worries me. Animal Most Like - Giraffe

Man City: The Premier League really is the Champions League of managers this season and few come bigger than Pep Guardiola. Had the other Special One not moved into Old Trafford you might have pretty much given the title to Citeh given the foregone conclusion-ness attached to them. For Guardiola, read Antonio Conte above, this won't be an easy ride, it will get better and all the signs will start to show that the future is scary, but maybe not this year. Animal Most Like - Gorilla

Man Utd: Determining factors - is Mourinho washed up? Will the Europa League hinder? Will they even bother with it? Will the weight of expectation become too high again? There's no denying the quality that's been brought in and that of those still being negotiated for. I just have a gut feeling that this could go horribly wrong and it's a real cheat to say it probably won't but I want to put it out there. Animal Most Like - Hyena

Middlesbrough: A dark horse for certain survival? There's something about them that suggests a resilience and staying in the Premier League isn't as difficult as it once seemed for newly promoted clubs. Have spent wisely and on some good players. Animal Most Like - Geordies

Southampton: my underdogs for the relegation zone. The new manager might yet be another brilliant pick and the academy still continues to churn out future stars; but it must be hard playing for a club with both a Europa League campaign and with the knowledge you play for a selling club. Unlikely to repeat last season and could struggle if things get tough. Animal Most Like - Seal

Stoke: I'm fed up with writing about Stoke and most years I write bugger all about them. Will frustrate and flatter to deceive. Mid-table as per. Animal Most Like - Shrew

Sunderland: David Moyes can turn Jermaine Defoe into a defensive midfielder. Surely a season of mediocrity but no real flirtation with relegation? Either this team will improve or no one will change their fortunes for a while. I think they'll bother neither end of the table. Animal Most Like - a very defensive minded sloth

Swansea: possibly the bottom has dropped out of Swansea a little and if Siggurdsson is prised away from them before the window slams shut then I fear for their future. Animal Most Like - lungfish

Watford: Who knows? What's the new manager like? How will the 30 new recruits slot into the team? Bizarre club. Animal Most Like - Cuckoo

West Ham: We all know Bilic is a top quality manager. How the Hammers settle into their new home is a huge uncertainty. Fortress or target? West Ham were the first team to win at the Emirates, I believe, expect Arsenal to return the favour. Europa League could hinder league progress a little, depending on how serious they treat it this year. Animal Most Like -  Peacock

West Brom: God, I so hope they go down. Animal Most Like - skunk

Tottenham: Optimism has never been in plentiful supply with me and my team and after a brilliant season, the team imploded to remind us all just how good they are at fucking up when Arsenal are sniffing at their arses. I expect nothing less than finishing above the Gooners and maybe we have the makings of doing more than that. The one key factor in Spurs failure to finish higher than 3rd was their failure to convert matches against obdurate opponents intent on a draw or nicking the win. The football they played, by and large, against the so-called big boys was irresistible at times and there's no reason why that shouldn't continue even with Champions League commitments. Sensible purchases, early on, and more brilliant raw talent being promoted from the youth coupled with something Spurs haven't had for a long time, continuity, means that I'm actually more than optimistic for them in a season with so many unknown factors at work. Animal Most Like - Vorlon

The Table:
1.  Tottenham
2.  Liverpool
3.  Man City
4.  Chelsea
5.  Man Utd
6.  Everton
7.  Arsenal
8.  West Ham
9.  Leicester
10. Stoke
11. Crystal Palace
12. Southampton
13. Watford
14. Middlesbrough
15. Sunderland
16. Bournemouth
17. WBA
18. Swansea
19. Burnley
20. Hull City

League Cup: Man City
FA Cup: Chelsea
Champions League: Bayern Munich
Europa League: Kazakhstan Korinthians

Saturday, 23 April 2016

And you thought this year was exciting...

The football season 2016/17 is so far away the 2015/16 one isn't even over, yet because of the abject failure of the Big Four to have much impact on the title, some pundits and journalists are already forecasting incredible things for next season.

Such is the belief of some journalists, by the ultimate week of next season there will be eight team all on 75 points, all with exactly the same goal difference and five more on 74 who could knick something if every result goes against what is needed. The other 8 teams will be vying for relegation. No one is suggesting that Middlesbrough, Burnley or Brighton could do a Leicester. In fact no one is suggesting Leicester can do a Leicester. If they do win it this year, no one is realistically even talking about them retaining it - not even the looniest Leicester City loons. This season is a one-off. Normal service will be resumed. Next season all the top teams will have the top people in place and, of course, next year, Rodney, we'll all be millionaires... Except, the poor joke is on me, next year all the Premier League clubs will almost be billionaires.

So, shifting focus away from my beloved Spurs, I thought I'd look at this coming August:

Arsenal - I know Arsenal fans who believe that Wenger will die in post. This is the one that's too close to call in because I think Wenger's time there depends on where they finish in the league this season. With two easy matches and a game against their rivals for 3rd, you would think Champions League football is guaranteed and therefore Arsene plays out the last year of his contract because he will have fulfilled the minimum requirements of said contract. I expect if that happens it won't get renewed and he'll be offered the chance to 'go upstairs'. That offer might come earlier if they find themselves in 5th, or even 4th, at the end of May, in a season where the top two were Leicester and fierce local rivals Spurs. Not good enough (huzzah).
Next season prediction: With Wenger and without serious investment a top five spot is unlikely; however, even with a new manager and a lot of money, there is no guarantee the returns will be instant, especially with so many clubs now having vast quantities of money. They blew it this season and without a change that will have psychological effects. Plus some of their stars are beginning to look nervously at the door...

Bournemouth - will not trouble the top half of the table and I say that with confidence and then I look at Leicester and 12 months ago you would probably have struggled to put a Rizla between Leicester's narrow-avoidance of relegation team and Bournemouth's Championship winning side. You can't say that now and who knows what investment Bournemouth might make even if their maximum ground capacity falls well short, or what standard of players they might be able to attract. The only drawback to all of that is the last few years have proven almost unequivocally that having a team is proving to be more consistent than having superstars. Eddie Howe is one of the best young managers in the country and he gets his team playing. Yet Bournemouth's success pretty much boils down to their ability to persuade people to go to the south coast, where lots of old people retire to.
Next season prediction: bottom half of the table.

Chelsea - there seems to be this belief in some quarters that Antonio Conte is going to have a kind of first-coming-of-Mourinho effect; in others is the belief that a huge amount of investment is needed. And then there's those who feel the club has more prospective excellence loaned out (40) it should look at itself rather than venture into the hit-and-miss world of hoping a great and mega-expensive footballer fits into your ways and methods. Some don't. Some world class footballers cannot adapt to some approaches. Plus, there really does seem to be something rotten at the heart of Stamford Bridge at the moment, like the fall out of the Eva Carneiro business had been brewing for months beforehand and we just saw the head of it and not all the pus stewing away below it. Has any defending champions ever looked so pallid and disinterested?
Next season: Hazard will go, so to could a few others. If Conte allows the youth to flourish and is given an entire season to oversee the repackaging of Chelsea (but has a couple of Galactico signings, so that Roman can feel all big in the trousers) then the season after next they might be worth a punt on finishing in the top four; but next season... top half only.

Crystal Palace - and repeat... I could pretty much say the same thing, but slightly different for every club, because the amount of money sloshing about in their banks come next season is going to make signing Messi a reality - in realistically metaphoric terms only - for some big named clubs, but is also going to mean some clubs picking up class acts who would normally not look at a club like Palace because if they want to play or want to sit on a bench or in the reserves of a 'top' club then they obviously are more interested in money than playing football. London is Palace's advantage.
Next season: we discover if everything people accuse Alan Pardew of is correct and whether Palace playing in Europe (A cup final spot against Man U would guarantee it) will really hinder the team or bring it forward. If the latter happens I see a struggle because of a lack of real depth - one that has been their undoing in the latter half of this season. Might struggle to make the top half.

Everton - I expect the Toffees will start next season with a new manager, but stranger things have happened at that club. Martinez should be fired for his failure to achieve anything in a season where LEICESTER won the title. At one point in January, the Merseyside club had the sixth best goal difference in the league and yet were 11th. This is a club with some real talent and yet they have the league table appearance of a 1990s Spurs side - high expectations and shit finishes. I liked their manager and I thought they got the better deal when my team got Andre Villas Boas...
Next season: Everton strike me as the kind of club with the right manager in place could hit the ground running. That said, they have to hope that this season of underachievement doesn't stimulate the likes of Barkley and Lukaku into wanting away, maybe to a club showing more ambition? Top half but need to keep their star players.

Leicester City - and here's the rub; Leicester will pocket a shed-load of cash from winning the league, but can they a) invest it wisely and b) keep the ethos of this team together? Can they compete in the Champions League and make a fist of defending the title? Could Jamie Vardy be a one-season-wonder? This season we have seen what the power of confidence can do and the power of a settled team - the top two in 2015/16 used less players than the 18 teams below them; next year the others will have a better chance of countering Leicester's style of play than Spurs' and I say that because history suggests that is what usually happens, while Spurs' style of play begins with them being as fit in the 90th minute as they were in the 1st - the only way to counter that is to match it.
Next season: I'm going to be optimistic. Leicester will scrape into the last 16 of the Champs League (but they enter the draw as a fourth seed given their absence from Europe for ever) and will finish 7th. Equally, they might get tonked in Europe and struggle against teams that mark Mahrez and Vardy out of games, but I think some of this year's momentum will see them all right.

Liverpool - the real threat, but there will be some changes and those changes could be crucial. I expect Klopp's Liverpool to be next season's Leicester or Spurs and that's because they are beginning to look like a well-drilled, organised and attractive GERMAN side. They could win the Europa League next month; they've already beaten a GERMAN team that humbled Spurs and having a fifth team in the Champions League would at least offset the worry that Leicester will bugger up our coefficients. They have started to look like an embryonic Spurs side - the one that started to look good at the back end of 2015, by next season they will have gained some consistency.
Next season: top 3

Manchester City - Pep Guardiola. I'll say it again, Pep Guardiola. So what? He's managed two of the greatest team ever in the same way that Andy Cole played up front for the best Man U side ever. Pep scores with stars. It would be nice to see what he'd do if he managed Orient or Fleetwood. Man City have fallen behind in many ways; they have some of the best players in the world in their side and I'm sure under the right coach they will prove this. But is Pep the right guy? Probably; but when you think about what Chelsea, Man U, Liverpool are likely to do in the transfer market, or the likely improvement in Spurs or the extensive rebuilding Pep has to do in certain areas, I no longer think this is a nailed on certainty. 
Next season will have expectations, but also a wee bit of patience. I don't think they'll win it, but they will finish top 3. They might be the only 'expected' team to place there.

Manchester United - with or without Van Gaal or Mourinho this is a team in transition and given history is likely to struggle to return to the position it believes it should be in. Van Gaal might win the FA Cup and finish 4th thus keeping his job for the final year of his contract. I kind of want this to happen because Man Utd are the new old Spurs - inconsistent but sometimes great. Yet, I don't believe Mourinho is actually that good, so him coming might be a great car crash. Equally, I refer you to comments about Pep Guardiola in the previous entry and ask if this possible manager could do it with no stars at his disposal and no budget?
Next season will probably be a massive disappointment yet like this season will have periods where they pick up plenty of points. The Man U era might be over, but they might still keep on the coat tails and sneak into 4th... Only
might though.

Southampton - if ever there was a collective side who could do a Leicester it's this team, but you just get the impression they don't know how to move up from where they have got. Keep Koeman and some of their outstanding players and you're looking at an outside top 6 club; lose him and it'll get no worse than mid-table. This is a progressive club that is almost single-handedly helping other teams rise above them by letting all their players and staff leave. That said I don't think of Southampton as being a 'new' Premier League side; I view them as a Premier League side who wandered off the plot for a few years (like Leeds, Bolton and the Sheffield clubs), so I'd be surprised if they allowed the club to slip out of the big time again.
Next season: probably won't seriously trouble the top or bottom six and in this era of billions that will probably be enough. Will have a big say in the outcome because on their day, at home, they are very tough to beat.

Stoke - I like Mark Hughes, but like Arsene Wenger, I don't think he's that cutting edge any more. He's been around too long now and seems capable of taking clubs to a certain level, but no higher. On paper Stoke look quite good; on the pitch on Monday night, Spurs literally took them apart and had fun with the pieces. There are some good (in Football Manager) players in the squad, but they seem to be reclaiming the 'thug' tag and also carry a lot of dead wood. Stoke aren't in any danger of doing anything remarkable, but they probably need a progressive manager to get the best out of their quality players and that manager also needs to develop youngsters while ridding the club of the likes of Crouch, Adam and Given.
Next season: nothing to see here, move along mid-table.

Swansea - the fact they're still here is testament to the way smaller clubs have adapted to the Premier League. However, this season while they never looked in danger of relegation, there were moments where they couldn't do anything right and Swansea and Palace both played themselves into a relegation race they should never have been in, considering their positions and points tally after Christmas. They were in danger because they don't seem to have come on and if they don't move up a few gears it will get worse.
Next season: bottom six, whether they will go depends on how bad three other teams end up.

Watford - who can say? Rumour has it that Flores is in danger of losing his job, despite Premier League safety by March and an FA Cup semi-final (maybe even Europa League football next season). An unlikely nomination to be the next Leicester, but as I've said, who would have thought of Leicester? They play nice counter-attacking football and have defied the odds and the pundits - this is a different Watford that has flirted with the top flight in the past.
Next season: mid table mediocrity and all the happier for it.

West Brom - this is an average side with an average manager and are likely to lose a couple of players in the summer. West Brom might think they're too good to go down, but as Villa, Newcastle and Sunderland can attest, reputations means dick. How does this club attract big players and play football that will make them more attractive? I have no idea, but they need something.
Next season: serious relegation candidates.

West Ham - we tend to forget because of Leicester and Spurs that the most common conversation when Slaven Bilic took over was whether he could prevent the Hammers from being relegated. Nine months later they have pushed for a Champions League place without ever looking like they were serious. This is a good side and I expect them to get better; however a new stadium could be a blessing or a curse. Moving to Stratford is one of the biggest 'unknown' factors in next season's league. If they take to it they could do better, if it doesn't fit then this is a team that sometimes fall quite spectacularly.
Next season: top 10, nailed on.

As you can see, I've left out Norwich, Sunderland, and Newcastle because we have no idea which one will still be in the top flight next year, however I think whoever it is will be challenging for the bottom 3 next season.

I expect two, possibly all three, of Burnley, Brighton and Middlesbrough up next season and with the new money fountain, I can't really forecast where these clubs are likely to finish - next year is an odd one because of the levelling of the monetary playing field - clubs will no longer need to sell players in contract, can afford to raise their wages bill and spend more money on better players - so I wouldn't fancy doing any predictions with any conviction until I know who they are and what they're doing.

That said...

It brings us to...

Tottenham Hotspur - I wouldn't have believed you if you'd told me what this current season would bring, because in many ways it was more ambitious than I've dreamt of. There hasn't been any speculation of any seriousness linking any of their players to 'bigger' clubs. Man U supposedly want Harry Kane, but that isn't going to happen - for a multitude of reasons. Could Dele Alli be tempted away with a £50million bid? I doubt it very much; I expect he will play for Liverpool one day - he is a fan - but I also expect him to be in his mid to late 20s when that happens. What about our brilliant defence or the likes of Eriksen, Lamela or Dier - couldn't they go if a Barca, Real or Bayern came calling? Yeah, but not next season - there's no need. Will Spurs keep Pochettino? Absolutely; his project is less than half complete and you see that look in his eye, the look of a man who knows this team is going forward and has no reason to go back, at all.
Next season: First. Top. Champions. Not only will they win it, they'll win it easily, with only two clubs giving them a run for their money. I say this based on the fact Spurs play the best football in the Premier League, have the best defence and next season the draws will become wins because they will have experience added to brilliant raw talent. They are a joy to watch sometimes.

My 'avin'a-larf table for May 2017

1. Spurs
2. Liverpool
3. Man City
4. Man Utd
5. West Ham
6. Arsenal
7. Leicester
8. Chelsea
9. Southampton
10. Everton
11. Stoke
12. Crystal Palace
13. Watford
14. Promoted #2
15. Promoted #1
16. Swansea
17. Bournemouth
18. West Brom
19. Norwich/Newcastle/Sunderland
20. Promoted #3

Friday, 8 April 2016

The End of Season Bash (part 2)

I want to make a point (again) about Leicester's participation in the Champions League next season, now that it is almost impossible not to happen.

I'm going to sound like every punter, ever, but with a fourth spot at Europe's top table under threat by resurgent Italians and the failure - en masse - of English teams in European competitions in recent years, there is a risk that inside three years, we could be 'relegated' to having just three Champions League participants (with the third place team having to go the play-off route). To stop this, we simply have to perform better in Europe than the Italians, especially next season, because if we fail again the co-efficients could well tip towards a fourth Italian side by the time the Champions League is revamped.

The Premier League, this season, has been a remarkably level playing field, which is why Leicester, Spurs and even West Ham have excelled way above expectations (and probably why Roberto Martinez will be sacked by Everton, because this talented side missed a big opportunity). It is still feasible, with Man City playing so erratically and Man Utd never guaranteed to turn up, that the Hammers could grab that fourth spot - a win against Arsenal would do lots of teams a favour. If next season England was represented by Leicester, Spurs, Arsenal and West Ham in the Champions League, then I'd bet my house that 99% of pundits would realistically say that only Arsenal stood a good chance of progressing from the group stage, based on European Cup history. You could argue that Spurs should, but the star-studded side under Harry Redknapp was a better bet on a European stage than the current side and Spurs' lack of real depth showed in their two limp defeats to Borussia Dortmund, who never looked like the side they did in the following round against Liverpool.

The Premier League might be the 'best' in the world in terms of excitement and entertainment, but it clearly no longer has club sides that are dominant throughout Europe. When Alex Ferguson retired it seemed to take the heart out of English clubs European dreams. I accept that's a facile generalisation, but there no longer seems to be the urgency about Europe there once was and that might be down to the money being generated, via television, for domestic football. This also might explain why world class footballers are still preferring Barcelona, Real Madrid, PSG and Bayern over any of our own rich clubs - because it's easier for these clubs to win big trophies now and there's less demand on them.

The Spanish League is, of the big guns, the most difficult to win outside of the Premier League. There are three teams that could win it every season, two of them are the Galacticos, while the other Madrid side punch above their weight every year. There are others capable of giving these teams 'a game', but you could forecast correctly every season by picking these three teams. Paris St German are the only team in their league; they have a squad to rival the Galacticos and are becoming a dominant force in Europe. Bayern's biggest rival is Dortmund, there are other good teams in the Bundesliga but essentially it's Bayern then the rest. These four teams should continue to dominate the Champions League because there are very few demands outside of it. In England we have schedules that kill competitions and it is obvious that the Europa League simply doesn't work for English clubs because of the over all money at stake, not the prize at the end. Champions League generates far more money and when you're a business, money tends to outweigh glory of a secondary nature.

Would England take the Europa League seriously if next season you had Man City, Man Utd, Southampton and say Everton in it? Would no European involvement help Chelsea and their new manager? Can Leicester do it again? Can they challenge for the title and play at the top table and hold their own? I'd say doubtful, as would others and historically there's evidence to suggest they could end up treating the Champions League like the Nordic clubs - as cash cow rather than a winnable competition - their participation in just six matches would bring considerable riches, even if that was the be all and end all of their European jaunt and it was never repeated.

However, in a world with a level playing field it isn't inconceivable that a team such as Southampton or Everton couldn't do very well in Europe; there is enough money to have bigger squads to combat the fatigue and mental catch up side of the game, but the demands of the domestic game have grown so important that comments made by Laurent Blanc - manager of PSG - ring true; he said that fatigue from a long season could play a major part in whether English clubs can do well in Europe and evidence over the last few years is they don't do well in Europe (unless its to the detriment of their league form). It is obvious that something needs to be done to help club fulfil their potential.

It's all well and good condemning English clubs failure while pointing at the money, the managers and the profile, but when you expect top class athletes to perform match after match to the highest of standards (and they don't) you have to realise that Mo Farrar doesn't run 10,000 metres, in gold winning medal time, every week, while kicking a ball in front of him.

It is also incredibly difficult to mould a squad team - most top clubs have their best sides and a few players who can interchange seamlessly, but start making wholesale changes and form starts to dip. Only Spurs this season have been able to rotate a lot of their players and not look much different; but it has been the rotations that have caused the biggest loss of points (not huge this season, but enough to make a difference). If you asked Mauricio Pochettino what his starting XI for the rest of the season is it wouldn't change (apart from maybe Vertonghen coming back). That's the side that almost won the Premier League and the push on they will need won't be signing star names, but holding onto who they have and signing a few equally as good players to slot in during injuries and suspensions. Most clubs don't really have good B teams - adequate, yes, but unlikely to sustain anything. So, if a club wants to take all competitions seriously, they have to play with teams they think will win and that means some players could end up involved in 60 matches in a season - do the maths, it's just too much to expect.

The question is does English football want to be champions of Europe again or is it happy living off its domestic laurels? It would seem the amount of money about to wash about has made the competitive edge wane. The league is still the important one and for six or seven teams now it will remain that way. Leicester will want to continue being a great side. Spurs won't be looking at a top four finish but a title challenge. West Ham will see the Olympic Stadium move as a bonus to continue the massive improvement under Slaven Bilic. Chelsea will expect their new manager to have instant impact and success. Guardiola's arrival at Man City throws open the possibility that some of the world class players who baulk at our league might be tempted. Arsenal and Man Utd will expect something extra and there's Liverpool to take into account; they have to improve at some point. It all adds up to a forthcoming season where winning the league again becomes the most important thing and with seven or eight clubs in the mix the cup competitions are going to be viewed as a hindrance rather than a bonus.

English domestic cups are utterly devalued, despite what pundits are paid to say; no one takes them too seriously until you get to the business end and even then, depending on what else your team is involved with, there is an element of lack of urgency about them. The League Cup causes problems even now, adding to a fixture list that many managers think is already too busy. One solution would be to revamp that competition but any major changes would be opposed because it carries a European place and without it the competition would be even more devalued. I'm sure that the managers of mid-table Premier League sides would argue it is one of their few ways of realistically winning a trophy, while teams always chasing bigger things will use the competition to keep fringe players happy - with the added bonus of extra game time and the chance to impress. If that fails, then no big loss, the players get a few midweek breaks. The fans would be more than happy with some silverware and they don't care how its got. I'm sure Wigan or Portsmouth fans would struggle to give back their FA Cup wins for a place struggling in the Premier League every season?

The problem is in the post-mortem; this season will have some fans of some clubs wondering if their commitments to cups was the reason they fell short. I'm talking, specifically Spurs and their one big chance of glory in 55 years and how it might not happen because of the club's earlier commitment to the cup competitions. Could some of those draws been wins? So next season, if Spurs are challenging again, could we see them treat the domestic cups with less respect? Part of me actually wants the answer to be yes. If Leicester get through to both cup quarter finals but end up in 7th because of the amount of games they played, will they be happy if the eight points they dropped meant 3rd rather than 7th? Cup quarter finalists are never remembered. If any club can win the league why risk the rewards of a top ten finish with a ultimately pointless cup run? I know it's all to do with pride and glory but some clubs know that will elude them so its really all about money.

The upshot is if England start to treat Europe like a purse rather than a winnable competition it devalues European football. Europe is unattractive without English participation - TV deals become insignificant when a big part of your desired audience isn't in it. So it ultimately isn't in UEFA's interests for England to drift out of European reckoning. The status quo might be restored next season - Arsenal, Chelsea, Man City and Man Utd might dominate with the pretenders back to scratching around for scraps, but if it isn't (and why should it?) then the draw of the Premier League's participation in Europe continues to be eroded because the fan bases of the new breed aren't in the league of the big money clubs and progression isn't assured.

It's a little like solving a conundrum within a puzzle within an enigma and one which every time I try and think of a workable solution I'm stymied by some different wrinkle. Whether it's about glory, money or progression, there is something or someone that will have to give to ensure that it has a fair chance of working and football chairmen are notorious for not giving an inch.

Way back when the Premier League was formed and it went from 22 teams to 20, some people were saying it should be just 16 teams, with one team relegated and one team involved in a play-off with the side finishing second in the lower league. The knock on effect is you'd now have a Premier League 2 with 20 teams, a Championship (League 1) with 24 teams and two regional League 1s (League 2) with 24 (or 20) teams each (the top six from the National league would automatically join the following season. This would immediately solve a fixture congestion for Premier League clubs, with eight games less. Can you imagine the opposition to it now if someone suggested that?

Cups will remain important to the fans of teams still in it at the arse end of the season, that will never change, but it could end up remaining a very fallow period for all of the wannabe league and European champions because there is a bigger prize now up for grabs.

It brings us back to Leicester in next season's Champions League. They will be a fourth ranked team, regardless of their champion status because they have no European form; getting out of a group with at least two top ranked sides is going to be a big ask for them and to be able to maintain the momentum from this season. It will be worse if they're drawn in a group with an Italian side. England will be lucky to get a good return in co-efficient points from the Champions League next season, so ultimately the euphoria of something different finally happening in the Premier League might end up devaluing our place in Europe.

The End of Season Bash (part 1)

Champagne's on Ice, but what about St Totteringham's Day?

Congratulations Leicester City on winning the most unlikeliest prize of all. The claiming of the Premier League title has been a revelation that is both sweet and poison to football fans all over the country.

But... hang on, they haven't won it yet?

No, but they need a minimum of four wins from their remaining six games and while they face in-form West Ham, Man United (desperate for a top four finish) and dethroned champions Chelsea, they also have three very winnable ties against Everton, Swansea and Sunderland and that should be enough, given Spurs' tough run-in.

Arsenal, on paper, look better equipped to make a late challenge, despite having to win 3 more games than Leicester. Five of their final six fixtures are all pretty much guaranteed three pointers - Palace, West Brom, Sunderland and Norwich before a last day 'test' against Villa. However, they also face West Ham at the Boleyn Ground and Man City in sunny Mancsville - two games that will possible define their stop/start season. 15 points would give Arsenal 73 points, meaning Leicester would only need 5 points to guarantee the title.

Spurs have Chelsea away - never a happy hunting ground and against a team playing for pride. They have Man Utd at home, also another team the North London club struggle to beat, wherever they play and whatever form they happen to be in. Stoke away also poses a threat - Spurs can win there, but going to the Potteries is never, ever, a forecast-able result. That leaves West Brom and Southampton at home and a potential crazy last day when they go to St James Park in Newcastle to play a side that may or may not have already been relegated, but might also need a win to save their status. If Spurs can draw against Chelsea, and beat their opponents in the other five, that would give them 16 points and a total of 78 points, meaning Leicester would need to win four matches as Spurs have, by far, the best goal difference in the league. That, on paper could put pressure on Leicester, but the reality is, it is Spurs they are up against.

So, while the league title is still not mathematically impossible, most Spurs fans would have bitten your hand off at the start of the season just to finish above Arsenal, even if that was us in 16th and them in 17th. The gap between the two pernicious rivals is four points, but Arsenal have a game in hand, so that could be one point and a far worse goal difference to overcome - not impossible by any stretch of the imagination. The reality is the fight for runner-up is far more likely to stir up passions among two sets of rivals than the unexpected Leicester title.

Don't get me wrong. If Spurs were to defy the odds and win the title I would not have the slightest problem in partying like it was 1999 all over again, but I also accept that it is as unlikely as Leicester winning the title... oh... But, it has been a great season to watch and live and I never really expected something like this in my lifetime; there was always the hope but never the reality - Spurs usually fall short much earlier than this and it's the hope that gets you in the end.

I decided after the lasagne-gate incident - 10 years ago now - that I would be happy with a) supremacy over the Arse or b) just one year where we finish above the bastards; and, frankly, we've flattered to deceive and always managed to screw it up. This season, as a die-hard Spurs fan, is likely to have the same result, even if we finish 3rd and are guaranteed Champions League group football next year. 3rd would be a disaster if Arsenal were above us.

In the world of harsh realities, Spurs could end up taking just six points from their last six matches and if you were a betting man this is your best bet; except for 28 of the last 32 matches, Spurs have played like one of the two best teams in the country - many managers claim they are the best side their clubs' have faced and unusually Spurs are now tough to beat; they don't concede that many goals (less than anyone else in the top flight) and this is a team that has showed, time and time again, it doesn't know when it is beaten. Most un-Spurs-like.

Against Liverpool, in a game they needed to win and went a goal behind, I never once gave up; I could see us scoring - we did - and I could see us getting a winner - we didn't, but we didn't lose and not losing is a mentality that has benefited both Spurs and Leicester.

So I err on the pessimistic only because recent history demands it. History however has never had a Spurs side quite like this one, at least not for 55 years, and this team is ridiculously young and fit and has gained more points from losing positions than any team in the league; so there is room for some cautious optimism and, of course, this weird season could still throw up some curve balls. Sunderland are fighting for their lives - relegation this season will cost teams so much money it isn't funny - and we all know - because of Leicester's heroics last season - relegation-threatened teams somehow turn it around, sometimes. Sunderland face both Arsenal and Leicester at home and it is arguably their two most important games, because points taken from these are not expected, despite home advantage. Plus they have Big Sam and he likes a challenge, having never been relegated in his career.

St Totteringham's Day - the near-mythical day when Spurs can no longer overhaul their North London neighbours has only gone down to the last day of the season twice in recent years and both times the Arse have triumphed, despite Spurs being in pole position. It would be fair to say that I will be looking down the table over the next few weeks, not above.

If I had any finger nails, I wouldn't.