Tuesday, 3 June 2025

Season Review - 2025

Every new football season I forecast what I think will be the final league table at the end of the season. I have had some very good years, where my guesses have been accurate (bar the occasional big miss), but this year was not one of them. To give you an idea, I said that Spurs & Man U would not win the Europa League and, of course, these two famously shit teams contested the final with my team ending their 17 trophy drought. I also said Chelsea wouldn't win the Europa Conference League, which they did. I did say that Newcastle would win the Caraboa Cup, that Wrexham would get promoted from League One and that Northampton Town would finish in the bottom half of the same league. I also guessed two of the three relegated teams, but the third choice ended up qualifying for Europe - Nottm Forest had a league season Spurs fans would have bitten your arm off for. The thing is what I thought might happen and what actually happened are not really the issue here. The 2024/25 season was memorable for pretty much all the wrong reasons, especially if you supported a team like Tottenham Hotspur... 

I have supported Spurs longer than I can remember. My earliest memory of them was my older brother going to see them play Rangers in a friendly in Toronto in the late 1960s. I'd pretty much already become a fan by default as most of my maternal family were also Spurs fans and I'm old enough to remember the ignominy of being relegated in the 1976 season - it blighted the perfect year, but back in the 70s being relegated was not the end of the world, as Keith Burkinshaw's Spurs proved (even if they did end up making it difficult for themselves). That relegation season was a real nadir, but imagine what this season would have been like if Spurs had lost that European final to Man U?

The league form of the fifth richest football club in the UK was essentially relegation form. Had there not been three utterly woeful worse teams than Spurs they would have been relegated. They even managed to lose at home to two of the three relegated teams, in two of the worst performances I can remember Spurs ever dialling in. There were calls for the manager to be sacked as early as November; Ange Postecoglou had guided Spurs to a 5th place finish the season before, but a lot of the groundwork for that high finish happened in the opening 10 games, when the team accrued 26 points from a possible 30. Had they not had that start to the season they would, realistically have finished lower and might not have even qualified for Europe. That form, from the defeat by Chelsea, at home, after two sending offs and a couple of serious injuries carried into the 24/25 season and despite an okay-ish start, the wheels started coming off very quickly.

The manager, never frightened to speak his mind at press conferences, made the claim that would haunt him for the rest of the season - I always win something in my second season! There will have been Spurs fan who would have punched the air at the Australian's confidence, but there would have been more of us wincing and hoping our imminent failure would not lead to a spate of more Spursy memes, ridiculing us even more. The moment the manager said these words, after losing 1-0 at home to our biggest rivals, the team looked like anything but winners. Even a mindboggling 4-0 win away at Man City didn't really feel that mindboggling. City were just entering their worst slump in five years and we played like headless chickens in the subsequent games - unable to build any momentum. There was also a pattern forming - play in Europe, lose the next league game. An international break would literally mean lose the game before the team broke up for 10 days. Spurs went from wildly inconsistent to being simply rubbish.

However, I have to concede that the injuries we had were horrendous and where Brighton and Bournemouth lost more playing time through injuries, teams like Arsenal, Man City and even the awful Man Utd all had injuries, but they - with one huge exception - still managed to punch either their weight or above it. In mitigating circumstances for Spurs, most of these teams did not lose the number of first team players Spurs lost. The club's failure to cope with the depth of injuries had to be laid at the feet of Daniel Levy and the club's higher management. They chose to buy young, for the future, while trimming 20% of the squad despite the fact we would be playing as many as 16 extra European games. It was great that Spurs brought in Lucas Bergvall (who they'd already bought) and Archie Gray, while giving some opportunities to academy graduates like Mikey Moore. It was good to see them buy Toni Kinsky as a serious back-up keeper, while it felt a little desperate when they hijacked Wolves' transfer of Kevin Danso and then signed Mattys Tel on loan.

The problem for Postecoglou was as Spurs got through to the semi-final of the Carabao Cup and were pretty much nailed on to qualify from their Europa League to the knockout stages, he felt that the club simply couldn't compete on all the fronts, so sacrifices had to be made. This was presumably done with Daniel Levy's blessing. At the start of February, there would have to have been a set of unbelievable and catastrophic events to see us get relegated, so the Europa League was prioritised. There was, as usual, no thought given to the 60,000+ paying fans, who turned up at the White Hart Lane stadium or travelled around the country, they chucked their money at the Tottenham Hotspur machine and left every league match feeling like they were robbed. Maybe, if the club had been transparent about what they were doing, then the manager could have simply used that as an excuse every time we lost to a team we should be beating, rather than staring at the floor and wheeling out the same, 'not at the required standards' bullshit we got. The problem is being honest would have seen a dramatic drop in ticket sales - league matches would have become corporate days because the fans would boycott them and there might even have been scrutiny from the Premier League.

There can't be any doubt had Spurs lost in Europe, Postecoglou would have walked the following day, maybe even at his post match press conference. However, his team won one of the most turgid and anti-football games I have ever witnessed. But as many said, we won a trophy at the end of it, so who cares? I get this. I sit here writing this review of the season with the knowledge that my team finally won something worth bleating about... Finally. This seismic change in my club's fortunes also shifted the narrative. When we meekly capitulated against eventual FA Cup winners Crystal Palace in our penultimate home game of the season, I expect even the most hardened Ange fans (unless they were Australian) expected the manager to go. We weren't just easy to play against, we had no fight in us and most of our opponents never got out of second gear. We were losers and the Premier League Table made grim reading. When we won the trophy, we were suddenly winners and it was all Ange Postecoglou's fault. He was our messiah, after all. He should have his contract extended. He had to have a third season, to see where he could take his winners next? A domestic cup, perhaps? An unexpected title challenge?

While the support for the Australian increased, it didn't stop many of the fans from having grave reservations about whether the manager is capable of juggling four competitions, while insisting on playing a tactic that historically has caused injury problems at almost every club he has been at. An injury crisis at Celtic is different from one at Spurs. Celtic have no real opposition, most of the time. They had a squad of many players, where even the fringe players were better than everyone at most of the other clubs. At Spurs, he saw how fringe players are there in case of extreme emergency and probably couldn't be trusted if they were required to play as many games as they ended up playing.

Players like Bergvall, Gray, Moore and even Djed Spence were expected to sit on the bench for most of the season and get game time in the closing ten minutes of guaranteed wins. Archie Gray spent half the season playing at centre back, because our other centre backs were either injured, about to become injured or had been loaned out because they weren't yet good enough for the Premier League. As an aside, because Gray played so well in a losing team at centre back, when he did get the chance to play in his preferred positions he looked exactly what he was - out of his depth and not yet good enough. Lucas Bergvall's elevation was for opposite reasons; despite a slightly shaky start, he started to outperform the senior players he was covering for and by the end of the season and before his season-ending injury, I expect his name was one of the first on the team sheet. We simply didn't have enough players to compete, so the fact we managed to win in Europe is a testament you can't take away from the lads, even if the Europa League was no longer as difficult to win as it had been.

Spurs ended the season with 22 league defeats - the most any Premier League team has had without being relegated. They were four points adrift in 17th, 13 points ahead of Leicester in 18th and 15 points adrift of Crystal palace who finished in 12th. It was an abysmal season for a team that with one exception had qualified for Europe throughout the last ten years. It was depressing and I was not the only person who'd given up on football before Easter. The Facebook page I run became a hate site with constant attacks on the manager, the board and even the players; there were many Ange supporters with their 'trust the process' posts and their blind devotion to a man who says 'mate' a lot, but the general tone was one of resigned failure. By the time we qualified for the Europa League final, most polls held on social media only had Arsenal fans and Australians demanding the manager stays.

We're now into June and the mini-transfer window is open, but we're not being linked with much, it's like 'journalists' have realised that no one knows what is happening at Spurs and are not about to speculate until a decision is made about whether the manager stays or goes. Smart money has Postecoglou being thanked for everything he has done, but the club is going to take a different approach now that many of the board have been replaced. However, there is also a potential fan backlash against whatever person is brought in to replace the Aussie. Remember Nuno Espirito Santos? He lasted 10 games and as we've seen this season, he's no slouch when it comes to managing football teams; the problem with us Spurs fans is we're as fickle as fuck. I actually thought the treatment of Nuno was appalling, but back in those days, anything that Levy and co did was abhorrent; they seemed to lurch from one stupid decision to another.

Postecoglou has ruined Spurs for me. I know this is just my opinion and winning a trophy should negate that, but where I usually go into pre-season with a healthy dose of unrealistic expectations, I worry that with Champions League, an increasingly tight Premier League and two domestic cup competitions, have we got the squad and the coach to manage all of that and put the club on an upward trajectory again? I seriously doubt that. I understand the sentimental reasons for keeping Ange, but given his record in the league, you have to wonder at what point of the new season does he decide that the Champions League has to be sacrificed to save the league season? Will he put out a losing team in the Carabao to make sure that his squad isn't overstretched? I mean, we hear Guardiola, Arteta, Slott, Emery and Howe complaining about being unable to cope and will sacrifice one competition for the benefit of the club every week, don't we? Oh, yeah, of course we don't.

The thing is I should be brimming with confidence, but I'm not thrilled at the names being linked to our club as a replacement for the Aussie and if I'm not you can bet there will be rabid pro-Ange fans out there doing what anti-Ange fans have been doing all season - calling for heads to roll. Postecoglou has divided the fan base like no other manager before him. The Spurs Facebook page I run has four admins and none of them can be arsed to run it, so I know it isn't just me. For every 'Give him another season' cry you hear, there's twice as many fans muttering and grumbling about Groundhog Day, but without a trophy at the end of it.

The crazy things that have happened this season aren't just a Spursy thing. Man U finished 15th, Everton and West Ham also in the bottom half. Palace and Newcastle won domestic trophies, Liverpool won the league without really trying and Sunderland completed a fairy story return to the top table, probably in the knowledge that their first aim is not to be as bad as Southampton. It has not been a season like others, yet there's no indication that any of the season's underperformers are going to set the league on fire next season. Man U have a massive rebuild; Everton are moving; West Ham have a new manager who, at the moment, is actually worse than their last manager who was sacked for not being very good. Wolves have a new coach who is capable to improving them greatly and then there's the likes of Brighton, Brentford and Bournemouth who will push on next season. There is nothing to suggest that Postecoglou can turn this bunch of cup winners into a consistent team - there literally is no data from his two seasons that says we're going to be anything other than midtable - at best. Equally, there's nothing, but gut feeling, to say that a new manager will return us to the top six straight away. I want to think our squad is better than the results suggest, but I'm no longer sure. I don't think any of our players have improved because of the manager and I'm not sure what a new manager can do with them. That doesn't mean I don't want a new manager, I just think winning a trophy papers over crevasses and not cracks.

So when the manager said the club had an 'outstanding' season, he wasn't really lying. It wasn't anywhere near outstanding, but it was because we won something. How do you reconcile winning a cup with finishing as the 17th worse team in a 20 team league? Some can. I can't. Yes, we had a better season than Arsenal. Would I have been happy with 2nd place and no trophies? Probably, because it would have said to me that Postecoglou was moving in the right direction and might go one better in his third season. 17th and a trophy sounds like Wigan the year they stopped being an elite team; I doubt any of our fans would want Spurs to be where Wigan are now.

In conclusion: a great trophy win, albeit in a devalued Europa League. A dreadful league campaign with no fight, no desire and no chance. If we keep the manager, I'm betting his odds to be sacked by game week 10 will be very very low. That will then require us to sign a new manager, new staff and the league season will be over two months old. Without getting a top candidate, that's next season written off. Is winning a trophy this season worth that risk? 

Sunday, 11 August 2024

The Annual Football Predictions Blog 2024/25


It's August again and therefore it's time for the annual BIG predictions blog. This is something that I have done for over 20 years; but since 2016 on this specific blog and I like to think I get it close most years, although to be fair I'm often so far out that it's hilarious - forecasting Leicester to be relegated the year they won the league being the best, but also the extreme optimism of believing QPR or Fulham would be more successful at times when all they did was get relegated. The dangers of doing this blog a week or so before the start of the season, or three weeks before the close of the transfer window often means that things happen that make me want to dive back in a do a revision - and if I want to be honest, I have done this on a couple of occasions and usually I regret it.

So... as a Spurs supporter, I am often far more optimistic about my team than anyone else, but in general I have had a good record of predicting where they finish. I have been a tad too optimistic sometimes, but equally I've sometimes been a bit negative and been proven wrong. This season is difficult to predict because Spurs (and many others) might do some more transfer business after this is published. Spurs might also not use some of the academy graduates as much as I hope we will - what's the point of playing them pre-season if you're not going to use them at some point during a long campaign with many more matches? I believe if you don't play kids with bags of potential they end up like Troy Parrot, plying his trade in the Netherlands at a club who will be playing for a UEFA Conference League place...

Let's get this thing done then. Here is what I tentatively believe will be the finishing order come May 2025...

1st: Man City
It could be Pep's last season, it might not. I can't see any other team winning this and that's not because I wouldn't give Woolwich the nod (but, I wouldn't). The thing is I really can't see any other team winning it. Yes, it's a cop out prediction but they are probably the best team in the world and the only way I'd struggle to tip them to win is if they lost Haaland, Foden and Rodri through season ending ACL injuries.

2nd: Woolwich FC
There's no denying that after many seasons of them playing second fiddle to Spurs, the 'Captain Black' rebuild has started to pay dividends, even if they haven't actually won anything since 2020. They have bought some decent players and they will push City all the way, but they will come up short (hopefully).

3rd: Liverpool
There will be a gap between 2nd and 3rd. Liverpool will be fighting for third this season with a fleeting title challenge that will never look particularly like one. The new man Arne Slott will fair better than other new managers, but he has a relatively settled squad and let's be honest about this, there are no teams outside to the top two who are going to be serious challengers this coming season.

4th: Tottenham
Yes, I think Big Ange will go one better, the thing is even if the new striker hits the ground running I still see them only finishing 4th, at best. It won't be a much better season than last year; they might even beat Chelsea for once; one problem is they aren't challengers and I'll have my supporter status revoked when I say they also won't win anything, again; they might be closer and could lose a final. The other problem is I'm not sure they've improved. I have major reservations about the signing of Dominic Solanke for £65million; I don't think he's good enough for a team to be challenging for a top four spot and I suspect Daniel Levy will end up with egg on his face over this purchase: expect fewer than 10 goals from him this season. The same old problems will come back to haunt us; struggling to beat inferior teams, looking second best to better ones and the only reason I reckon they'll finish fourth is they might end up being the best of the challenging group; however, I'm not confident and they could easily end up in 7th.

5th: Newcastle
Without European football and with a fully fit and added to squad, I think Newcastle will look more like the team from the season before last. Europe and a run of bad injuries did for them last time out, but this time they will be in the mix for a top four spot. They will go on long runs without defeat but suffer from a couple of runs of bad results which will make them also rans. However, with consistency they could end up in 4th, especially if Spurs haven't improved the way they should have done.

6th: Aston Villa
It was Europe that did it for the Bar Codes last season and Villa's place at the top table in its new look will probably prove to be difficult. They will do reasonably in Europe, but will probably only reach the first knockout stage; the constant strain of two top matches a week will be a struggle because they don't have two A teams and injuries will affect them. They will still be better than teams one would expect to be above them.

7th: Man Utd

Erik Ten Hag will be sacked after Christmas. A team dogged by injuries and inconsistency will have a sense of Deja vu as the same will happen again. I mean, you spend £52mil on Leny Yoro who is now out until Christmas... It will be another miserable season for Man U fans and there will be protests almost weekly especially when the shit really hits the fan. It couldn't happen to a better team.

8th: West Ham
Lopetegui is a class signing and the Hammers have signed some good players. They will be a good side to watch but there is going to be seven teams better than them. There will be a gap between them and the team in 9th, but a fruitless season and a mid table finish will feel disappointing, but they're in a rebuild phase and maybe the 2025/26 season might be where we see them challenge for the top six.

9th: Chelsea
Maresca - the former Leicester manager - is going to have the same problems as Pochettino and suffer from inconsistency - he might not even last the entire season. Chelsea might do well in the UEFA Conference League because they will be one of the favourites, but in the end there will be too many league hiccups along the way; and will they be able to play all eight of their goalkeepers? Another question many fans would like to know the answer to is how this club can spend so much money and never fall foul of FFP. If you think Man City takes the piss then Chelsea takes it and then takes some more. They have spent over £1.5billion since Boehly took over and yet because they sign players on incredibly long contracts and buy hotels from themselves the EPL and UEFA don't see this as a problem. This club makes FFP look like a nasty penalty to smaller clubs or ones who need to spend money to try and survive - an absolute joke. This club are becoming more vile and hated than Woolwich...

10th: Crystal Palace
Glasner did wonders with Palace at the end of last season, but there's a risk they will have sold their best players and not replaced them with the same quality. At this moment in time Palace are no better than a mid table side, but they won't be involved in the skirmish that will take place below them. They will get some notable scalps and won't be as easy to beat as they once were, but they aren't better than 10th, especially if they have to re-sign Zaha from Turkey to fill the voids left.

11th: Fulham
It's the best they can expect. They have a good manager, have bought some very good players, but in the end there are going to be a lot of sides that are better than them. I mean, are they even better than Palace? Marco Silva is the kind of manager who would do well at a better side, but he's also a bit temperamental. 

12th: Brighton
New manager and a lot of players have gone. They are now a mainstay in the Premier League and like Fulham and Palace won't be dragged into the relegation battle, but that's the best this side can expect. They're not the side they were two years ago and a lot of the teams who finished below them have got better, Brighton haven't.

13th: Brentford
They had a tough season last year and while this season is going to be another tough one, I can't see the Bees doing anything more than just flirting with relegation. They're too good to go down (and I am aware of how that statement often comes back and bites pundits on the arse). It really depends on Ivan Toney, who Brentford probably want to sell but no one wants to buy him for that ridiculous price. Maybe they try and sell him in January for £20mil, then he becomes an interesting buy.

14th: Bournemouth
Andoni Iraola did wonders last season and if the Cherries replace Solanke then they can expect another season of consolidation. 14th might sound like a struggle but it's safety and that counts more than anything else to a club of this level.

15th: Wolves
Gary O'Neill was a shock decision after Lopetegui quit and people thought that Wolves were on a doomed track. This is going to be a second season syndrome for the manager. Wolves have good players but have lost some better ones. This is a confidence side and when things go wrong they will go on a doom spiral that will plunge them into trouble. In the end there will be a few teams just not as good as them, but it will be squeaky bum time.

16th: Everton
Am I keeping the Toffees up because my best mate is a supporter or are they simply better than the four teams who will finish below them? If Dyche can get a tune out of whoever he has left after they sell all their assets to stop having more points docked then they will have just enough to stay safe. However, it really might simply be a case of there being four teams who are worse than them.

17th: Leicester
You watch, they'll finish in the top 6 and surprise everyone. Except they won't. This will be a skin of their teeth season. They may survive because they draw more games than the three below them. Cooper is a dodgy decision as manager and if he lasts the season I will be surprised; this isn't the Foxes of old.

18th: Nottm Forest
You'd think they'd finish higher but this is a potentially great Championship standard side that will struggle and never quite get back to a level that will save them. They will also have three managers next season.

19th: Southampton
Last season all three promoted sides went down and this time two of the three will. Saints simply won't be good enough. Have not signed anyone good enough and will only finish 19th because Ipswich will be worse.

20th: Ipswich
You'd like to think this underdog story has a happy ending but it won't. McKenna is a great young manager and he won't get sacked because Ipswich's owners will expect this to happen. It's about building for the future.


League (Carabao) Cup: It could be Newcastle's time to win a trophy

FA Cup: Man City

Champions League: Real Madrid or Man City

Europa League: Not Spurs or Man U

Conference League:  Not Chelsea

Championship: Whoever it is they will dread the following season, but there's no team that stands out

League 1: Wrexham to finish in a play off spot; Northampton bottom half

League 2: Doncaster

Scottish League One: Stenhousemuir to finish 6th

Friday, 11 August 2023

The Annual Football Predictions Blog 2023/24

I don’t think there’s been a more difficult season to predict. New managers, players and teams in the top flight with obvious favourites and teams that will almost certainly struggle to say. While predicting a winner is almost too easy, it will be who goes down that will have the most interest because on last year’s evidence a number of once top teams may find going very hard, especially without the kind of investment needed to just tread water.

For the first time in over a decade, my best friend and Everton supporter Roger is not partaking in this. He's had a shit year and Everton, while still in the Premier League, aren't exactly filling their fans with optimism. So I'm flying solo this season. Let's hope that Everton confound expectations and 2024 is a better year for old Big Nose #1 and he's back here next year with his usual footy witticisms. 

Here’s my forecast for the 2023/24 season:

1. Manchester City – yes, they’ve sold a few players, but I can’t see them being stopped. They have a number of youngsters coming through who look readymade replacements, such as Cole Palmer who dazzled at the Euro U21 championship and scored that peach of a goal in the Charity Shield defeat. I expect no one will stop them, but they will, as usual, slip up a few times to give the chasing pack some hope.

2. Arsenal – as much as it pains me to say, this is a team that has recruited well this summer and will be determined to have another good season despite having extra pressure heaped on them by being back in the Champions League again. They just might be too strong for the chasing pack, but a long way short of actually challenging, but their progress will piss a lot of Spurs fans off.

3. Manchester United – I put them in 3rd more because I fail to see other teams capitalising. Erik ten Hag has done a good job but I think they’re going to struggle to stay in the race. Some reasonable signings and probably their best manager since SAF, they’re going to be a good bet for winning a domestic cup if Man City takes their eye off the ball.

4. Liverpool – This is my first real gamble. They have lost a few solid players, albeit probably past their prime and the recruitment hasn’t been spectacular, but I think the Europa League will suit Klopp for a season; he can experiment with squad players and concentrate on improving results in the league. It’s going to be a huge race for 4th this season and I think the Reds will scrape into it.

5. Newcastle United – I think the Champions League will be their domestic league undoing. This is going to be a tough season for a team that seems to have recruited well, but they’re now going to have a target on their backs and the schedule might prove to be a problem. They will still have enough to finish high, but not high enough to continue the meteoric rise Howe’s had since arriving. However 5th is now the Holy Grail for some teams because from this season it means Champions League qualifiers at least.

6. Tottenham Hotspur – Another optimistic gamble on my part, but frankly even without Harry Kane this is a team with enough ability to be up there. No European commitments, a refreshed squad and a manager with an attacking nature and the desire to bring Spurs football back to Tottenham. They’ve recruited well, considering no European football and the likes of Maddison and Vicario will set a new standard. This will be a huge season and I think the team will rise to the occasion, mainly because they’ve done well with Kane when he’s been injured and I feel his departure will lift the pressure some players have had on them – it’s their turn to shine.

7. Chelsea – the best Pochettino can hope for is European football at the end of his first season. I know Alan Hansen famously said you can’t win anything with kids and was proved extremely wrong, but this Chelsea side is a work in progress; they seem to have signed everybody with potential but it’s going to take time for them to gel. I expect there will be massive highs and disappointing lows and the pressure will be on the former Spurs man to deliver in his second season, which is a long way away.

8. Aston Villa – 8th is going to seem like a massive disappointment, especially considering they’ve signed some top players, but the Europa Conference was a real hindrance to West Ham and I think Unai Emery’s men are going to find the Thursday/Sunday schedule tough to get used to. They will take big points off the top teams but may well struggle against teams they should beat. Might win the Conference, they have a squad that should be better than the rest.

9. Brighton – another team that is going to find Europe extremely tough going and you can’t escape the fact they’re a selling club and need to ensure those they’ve lost are replaced with equally good players, which seems unlikely. Will continue to play lovely football, but may struggle away from home.

10. Crystal Palace – my personal jury is out regarding Woy Hodgson but they have a squad that is more than capable of being better than the rest. 10th is about as good as any Palace fan can expect given the quality that usually finish above them and while there’s no doubt they won’t be involved in a relegation fight, they’re also not going to be involved in a European chase either.

11. Burnley – if Vincent Kompany is as good a coach as many believe him to be and with the very canny signings he’s made, I think the Lancashire club are going to surprise a lot of people and won’t be anywhere near a relegation fight. James Trafford is an excellent signing from Man City and he will stake a claim to be England’s 2026 goalkeeper. This is a side that will upset a lot of teams.

12. West Ham – losing Declan Rice was tough, but given the quality of some of the relegation fodder, David Moyes should be able to juggle the Europa League with a safe EPL finish quite easily. Despite little recruitment, this is largely the same squad that many thought would be challenging for a Top six place and while they didn’t do that they did win a European trophy and that will galvanise the team.

13. Fulham – why so low given what a cracking season they had on their return to the top flight? I think they’re going to find teams will expose the gaps this team has and if Mitrovic goes I struggle to see where their goals are going to come from. I doubt they’ll be involved in a relegation dog fight but Marco Silva might start to wonder why he didn’t take the Saudi shekels when they offered them.

14. Everton – even without serious recruitment Sean Dyche will do what he did with Burnley and make this team too good to go down and better than the six team below them. The threat of relegation will hang over them but I think the gap between Everton and the bottom five will be telling by season’s end.

15. Brentford – this could be the story of a season of two halves – one without Toney and one with. Brentford needs to at the very least tread water until their goal scoring talisman returns from his extremely long betting ban. Thomas Frank is a great manager, but this is going to be a tough season for the Bees because a lot of teams will have sussed out how they play and be prepared for it. A relegation fight isn’t out of the question, but ultimately they’re going to be too good for the bottom five…

16. Bournemouth – regardless of the reputation of their new manager and what can be classed as a bolstering of the squad, Bournemouth are going to struggle to stay in the Premier League, but will probably achieve it by virtue of not being the worst team and taking vital points off of all their rivals.

17. Nottm Forest – I don’t expect Chris Cooper will be in charge by the end of the season; he may well be the first managerial casualty. This is a club that appears to have thrown caution and money to the wind in its recruitment policy and that might be the one thing that keeps them up – they have some good players.

18. Wolves – this is a huge gamble and could depend on whether Julen Lopetegui stays. If he goes I can’t see this team getting enough points to stay in the league, but even if he stays I don’t think Wolves have recruited much at all, don’t appear to have any money and there’s a feeling that all is not well at Molineux. I don’t expect he’ll be sacked, but I do expect he’ll walk before Christmas if things are looking perilous, if that happens they’re doomed.

19. Sheffield United – I don’t know if they’ve recruited well, I expect they’re going to be hoping that teams struggling in the relegation zone last season won’t have improved and they can scrape a second season by virtue of not being one of the worst. I can’t see them doing anything but struggling, but I expect them to take at least 3pts off of Spurs because they do that whenever they’re in the top flight.

20. Luton – might spring a few surprises, will draw a lot of games, but in the end the lack of quality and sheer weight of the task ahead of them is going to be too much. They could rival Swindon and Derby for the title of worst team ever to play in the EPL.

FA Cup winners - Man City

League Cup winners - Man City

Champions League winners - Bayern Munich 

Saturday, 30 July 2022

The Annual Football Predictions Blog 2022/23

Getting on for 15 years now Roger and I have been doing this and for a wee while at the back of last season it looked like it might come to an end, for a season at least, but Everton stayed in the Premier League, while Spurs did the unlikely thing and qualified for the Champions League. It was a season of contrasts and I expect the thought of having to do one of these and try and be positive about your own team's chances can't be much fun...

Obviously, these always come out before the start of the season, which means some big business might have been done after our predictions, but generally we can't complain - neither of us are that accurate, but we're always there or thereabouts with the odd rogue - one of us had Leicester being relegated the year they won it!

Here's Roger to kick things off:

Phil has insisted we do this thing again. Last season I was way off, as were my team who only survived due to there being enough teams who were actually worse than than the inept shower I've supported since a choice between Everton and L****poo* was forced on me by dad, who quite reasonably told me to choose between Roger Hunt and Alan Ball and the teams they played for, as you can't follow both. Bally it was then, as he was my favourite player in 1968. Which was hundreds of years ago, when people were shorter and lived by the water. Everton occasionally won things back then, too. Anyway...

1st - Manchester City

There really is no reason to bet against them continuing their dominance, is there?

2nd - Chelsea

Second will more than likely be L****poo* again, but you've got to have hope haven't you? Chelsea by their standards have so far bought hardly anyone, and Raheem Sterling is hardly the player to take them up a notch. They have trimmed their huge squad by about 73 players too, so they've no chance of coming second really.

3rd - Liverpool

They'll miss Mane an awful lot, and Mo Salad will miss him the most. It's the hope that kills you.

4th - Arsenal

Gabriel Jesus & Zinchenko are class buys, and might be enough to edge Spurs out of fourth place. In the real world, where Chelsea will be third, they may even give them a run for their money. Trouble is its Arsenal, who always go flaky at some point.

5th - Spurs

The bastards bought our best player and one of two reasons on the pitch why we stayed up last time, for a frankly ridiculous £60m, along with the usual handful of forrins I've never heard of. Hooevvuh, the other players they've acquired don't seem to be of the class of Arsenal's signings, so unless they have a surprise or two still to arrive, they might slip a place this season.

6th - West Ham

With last season's experience filed away, I reckon the Moyesiah will have enough guile this time to get and stay ahead of a very average Man Utd.

7th - Man Utd

Who 's this Lisandro Martinez, then? A bit of an unknown quantity this time round, as Utd have a new boss with no prior Prem experience. After the honeymoon period, I can't see them doing anything other than sliding further down the table. I'm probably utterly wrong.

A BIG gap to..

8th - Newcastle

Unbridled optimism has never been in short supply at the Barcodes, but this season there is actually a basis for it, given their new owners' bottomless pockets and no FFP to worry about for a couple of seasons. Surely Newcastle can't fuck up having loads of money in the hilarious way Everton have? I think Eddie Howe has it in him to take them to the next level, but the Saudis probably won't have the patience. When they lose a couple of games, they might publically execute him on the pitch, or chop his right hand off, or summat.

9th - Fulham

There's always one promoted club who do better than expected, but Fulham, another club with cash oozing out of every pore are probably actually expected to finish about here, so...

10th - Crystal Palace

Patrick Viera has got Palace playing decent football, which given their history of lumpen prole hoofing is quite remarkable. Will be doing battle with their monied rivals at Craven Cottage all season.

There is nothing to choose between the teams finishing 11th, 12th and 13th, I might as well put them in alphabetical order. Oh... I have

11th - Leicester City

12th - Southampton

13th - Wolverhampton Wanderers

14th - Aston Villa

Yawn

15 - Brighton & Hove Albion

There's a lot of teams in this thing, ain't there?

16th - Everton

It's hard work being a Evertonian. Escaping relegation by the width of a toffee wrapper last time, thanks mainly to some amazing home support in the last few games, and of course Richarlison's goals, and Pickford's saves, I can't see anything but another struggle this time. With no money to spend, so far we've bought two players from a relegated team, sold our best player and not replaced him so far. If DCL doesn't find his form, and quickly, we are well and truly fucked. But there are three or four teams who look even worse on paper. It's that hope thing again...

17th - Brentford

What are they even doing here? Their average league position throughout their history is 10th in the old Third Division. However, given the woeful nature of the three teams below, they'll escape on goal difference on the final day.

18th - Bournemouth

This season's yo-yo club are yo-yoing straight back down.

19th - Leeds Utd

They had two very good players last season. They've sold them both. Nuff said.

20th - Nottingham Forest

Looks like they've bought and loaned an entire new team. A big risk. It won't pay off.

 

Chumps League - Look, I really don't care. To me, this is a fantasy competition.

FA Cup - Look, I really don't care. To me, this is a fantasy competition.

League Cup - Look, I really don't care. To me, this is a fantasy competition.

And that was Roger as we know and love him, brimming with optimism and waxing lyrically about his favoured sport…

 This year I'm going to do my half a little differently, mainly because I fancy a change.

The Top 4: Man City, Liverpool, Spurs, Chelsea.

In that order. It will be very little change but it might be a lot closer in points total. City have Haaland who appears to be able to score goals simply by farting at the ball; Liverpool has strengthened and they won't miss Mane and I think Tuchel at Chelsea will struggle to get consistency from his team and might possibly not be there at the end of next season.

Antonio Conte's busy transforming Spurs and I think the six signings so far are a great addition to the squad that now needs some trimming. I don't think they can challenge for the title, but they won't be that far behind and this season I think they might break a couple of their hoodoos.

5th to 7th: Man Utd, Arsenal, West Ham.

Ten Haag has done enough to set United back in the right direction, but it won't be plain sailing and they'll hit some bumpy patches. Arteta has done some interesting recruiting and the Arse will improve, but not enough and it will start to feel as though 6th is roughly what they'll get until the stagnation can be addressed properly. The Hammers are better than every team below them.

8th to 11th: Newcastle, Aston Villa, Leicester, Palace.

I'm reluctant putting the Bar Codes so high up because they haven't spent much and I think the three teams I have below them could easily finish 8th. Villa will see this as progress. Ted Rogers might see his star wane some more and Palace are better than every team below them.

12th to 17th: Wolves, Brighton, Brentford, Everton, Leeds, Fulham.

The only things I have to say about this is Everton are rubbish and have been fucked up by poor ownership, bad choices and spaffing too much money on bang average players. They will have a dreadful season, but I don't think they will flirt quite as dangerously with relegation this season. I also changed my mind about Fulham; I had them going down, but I've relented because they're stronger now than they were the two previous times they were in the top flight when I had them finishing mid table both times.

18th to 20th and Relegated: Southampton, Nottm Forest, Bournemouth.

It will be a south coast disaster. Hassenhutl's luck will run out and Forest and Bournemouth won't have the quality over 38 games. These are the three teams that will score the least amount of goals and accrue the least amount of points, therefore they're all fucked. 

Champions League: I can't see any other team other than Spurs. 😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂

FA Cup: I can't see any other team other than Spurs. 😂😂😂😂

League Cup: I can't see any other team other than Spurs. 😂😂😂

* The higher amount of emojis the more unlikely I think it is

... And there you have it. Another year of being close-ish lies ahead. It would be nice if another 'Leicester Year' can be had, it shakes things up, but it's unlikely.

Saturday, 14 August 2021

The Annual Football Predictions Blog 2021/22

The Annual Premier League Predictions Blog 2021/22

Last season, between Roger and me, we managed to pretty much forecast an accurate picture of how we felt last season would end. There were obviously the glaring mistakes, but in general we did okay, especially considering we guessed our own teams’ finishing positions spot on, which is both excellent and a little bit sad.

In the twelve months since that blog; Spurs have lost their arsehole and Everton’s manager proved to be an arsehole and now both teams start a new season with new managers and little optimism. Liverpool have lost their World Heritage standing, mainly because of the proposed Everton stadium at the docks and Spurs lost £200million in unrecoverable income and fell, like a stone, out of the top four and back into mid-table mediocrity. If the Toffees learn anything from this season, it’s likely to be two-fold: 1) don’t waste your money and years of the club’s time building a new stadium and 2) don’t employ your biggest rival’s ex-manager, possibly a few years after his peak. The similarities with Spurs are never-ending…

So… how do we see the forthcoming season unfolding? Personally, and I expect Roger feels the same way, the enthusiasm, optimism and hope we’ve both had at times over the last decade has almost completely disappeared and the prospect of another long and potentially boring season is very real. Here’s what I think:

1st: Man City – especially if they sign Kane and Grealish. I don’t really have a problem with Citeh the way I do United or Chelsea, Arsenal or Liverpool, but they’re proving that there’s no longer such a thing as a level playing field and I expect they will run away with the title this season, even without world class additions.

2nd: Chelsea – I don’t care where they finish as long as they don’t win any more trophies. The Poor Man’s Man City is a dislikeable bunch of worthless cunts and I’d like to see them lose every match they play in. They have overtaken Arsenal in my personal hatred charts.

3rd: Man Utd – the Manchester dominance won’t continue, just. Good signings, Ole getting the hang of managing a proper side and the ability to grind out enough results to keep them in touch with the real challengers. They’re never going to be what they were, at least not in my lifetime. Still good enough to stay in the top 4 for the foreseeable future.

4th: Liverpool – and so the top four is a repeat of last year. Liverpool peaked eighteen months ago and have been overtaken by at least three teams; plus not a huge amount has happened on the transfer front – running to stand still. Might win a cup.

5th: Leicester – knocking on the door again and will be unlucky not to break into the top 4; will suffer from their usual slumps at the most inconvenient times.

6th: There will be quite a gap between 5th and 6th and for the first time in years I’m hard pressed to see a finishing order for the lower European places. West Ham are in the Europa; Spurs are in the Conference, Aston Villa have reinforced extremely well, but lost Grealish and Everton are again in transition and likely to play extremely dull football to grind out results; so who is going to finish 6th? Let’s have a punt on Leeds United. No Europe, good recruitment, top manager. I see a big improvement coming.

7th: Spurs – it pains me to forecast them so far down the table, but this is as optimistic as I can get. I like Nuno Espirito Santo; I think he’s a nice guy. I don’t expect he’ll see two years out, especially if Pochettino continues to be linked with a return (although that depends on how far Spurs fall). I also suspect Spurs will get through to the Europa Conference final – whether they win it or not is another matter. It is a horrible time to be a fan of this team. They have plummeted from contenders to has-beens in the space of two seasons and that has been largely down to ENIC’s failure to invest in players when they were needed and then being kicked in the teeth by COVID when they were ready to make themselves lots of cash from the new stadium, American football, rock concerts and boxing matches – football was always going to be low down that list, now… Levy needs to spend some of those billions squirrelled away or simply sell up and get a progressive owner in. Sad times but some encouraging signings and the promise of getting rid of more deadwood and bringing a few youngsters through. As long as we’re entertaining and challenging in a couple of cups, I don’t mind a season of low expectations.

8th: Everton – I expect the same from the perennial underachievers of the 21st Century. Benitez’s appointment is likely to be as successful as Mourinho at Spurs or anyone at Celtic at the moment, which is damning but also probably accurate. Their season was probably summed up the other morning when Rafa said that James Rodriguez was surplus to requirements and should look for another club. This is their only world class footballer and for a club mired in a child sex abuse scandal with one of their other senior players, I expect things will only get worse before they ever get better…

9th: Arsenal – they are in more of a decline than Spurs. The manager will be sacked by Christmas and it will be an uphill struggle from then on.

10th: West Ham – the Europa League will do them. A return to mediocrity.

11th: Aston Villa – even without Grealish they’re still almost capable of top half; it’s whether their signings are as good as they’re believed to be. It’s a tough league for the top 10 and they might just miss out.

12th: Crystal Palace – this will be seen as an improvement and a step in the right direction for new boss Patrick Vierra.

13th: Wolves – new manager, poor recruitment; one wonders what the owners are thinking. Probably enough to stay out of trouble.

14th: Southampton – the end of Hassenhutl and a season of struggle.

15th: Brentford – a valiant effort, will shock many teams at home; will do more than enough to survive.

16th: Brighton – Graham Potter is touted as a great upcoming manager; Brighton will play nice football and still struggle all season.

17th: Newcastle – skin of their arses time. Bruce will somehow manage to keep his job all season.

18th: Burnley – Dyche’s swansong? It’s time this team’s luck ran out.

19th: Norwich – as doomed as they were last time; likely to have lost their best players by the time the season really gets going.

20th: Watford – doomed. End of.

 

FA Cup: Rotherham

League Cup: Wycombe

Champions League: Lokomotiv Plovdiv

Europa League: Wales

Europa Conference: The Moldovan Figure Skating Movement.

 

And now for Roger’s effort. I call it an effort although he didn’t put much into it. However, where I have eschewed humour for a more serious approach this season, he’s filled in the void left…

***

I can't remember being less enthusiatic about a new football season than for the forthcoming round of predictable fare, for, well forever. My lot have finally had FFP caught up with them, and after 5 years and now 6 managers, the ability to spend has been severely curtailed by the regulations. In a close season when the usual suspects continue to spaff cash at players without a care in the world, Everton, once a big club in the increasingly dim distant past, are now going to be slugging it out for a top half finish with the also-rans.

 

The way FFP "works", it seems to me to be a fairly pointless exercise as the gap between the Big Six and the rest gets ever wider, making bridging that gap more and more difficult for once big players like Everton. I am coming to the conclusion that the Euro Super League thing should be allowed to go ahead. At least it would give our league some genuine excitement. Still, it could be worse, I could support the Cobblers.

1st - Man Utd - Look, it would be too easy to say Citeh, again. Utd have spaffed well, and I fancy them to give it a right go.

2nd - Man City - They have probably spaffed in fine fashion too, but I can't be bothered to check. Even real Citeh fans must be getting bored by now, surely?

3rd - Chelsea - That Tuchel fella looks like he knows what he's doing. I fancy Roman to blow his face off with a sawn-off shotgun as the culmination of a bloodbath in Knightsbridge.

4th - Leicester - This time, they'll get their noses in front of the Shite. He hopes....

5th - Liverpool - Fuckity fuckity fuck...

6th - Arsenal - With an average squad age of 13, the Gooners could find those late night matches hard to cope with. Expect them to be top at some point, and then lose 5 on the trot. As per normal, then.

7th/8th/9th/10th - Perm any combination of Spurs, Villa, Leeds, Everton. I'm afraid West Ham will slide back into the anonymous middle bit, now they've got away fixtures in Ulan Bator on Thursday nights to contend with.

This middle bit makes me want to go for a shit. I really don't care.

Will Brentford stay up? No. Neither will Watford or Narch.

The Cup - Aston Villa

League Cup - Aston Villa

Right... now to go and do something useful, like string my ukulele.

***

And that's all they wrote. Who will be closer to the truth? Last season it was just about a tie.

 


Friday, 11 September 2020

The 2020/21 Premier League Predictions Show (Part 17)


It’s that time again – except it isn’t, that time is usually the beginning of August rather than when autumn starts throwing shitty sticks at everyone. As usual, myself and my dear friend Roger have wasted everyone’s time with our pointless tallywacker – it’s just a bit of fun, ennit.

2020/21 Premier League Predictions

1st Man City – I think City will pip a four-way title race, probably with a game to spare and with considerably less points than recent years; this is going to be the season about the best managers with the most even squads and the top four will have those squads. Pep’s guile will see them through. They will be dynamic at times, but beatable.
2nd Liverpool – I wouldn’t be surprised if they’re there or thereabouts for the entire season without ever being in pole position. Some teams will suss them out after a season of playing them; tactics will change against them and they will be less effective. Due an injury crisis.
3rd Man Utd – there will be times when you think you’re watching the United of old and there will be the times when a serious title challenge looks a million miles away. They will lead for periods, but never look like winning. Solskjaer might struggle to get them as consistent as their fans would hope and that will continue to haunt him when ‘better’ managers get linked with his job.
4th Chelsea – the inexperience will matter and despite extensive investment, Lampard will lose out to Solskjaer in the race for just 3rd place. They will evoke memories of the past by leading the pack at times, but that will be the nature of the beast next season, I think. The top four teams of last season are still way ahead of the chasing pack and they’ve all done business or probably have enough in reserve to go another season without being seriously threatened.
5th Arsenal – that said, Woolwich has done good business, I expect they will believe for long periods of the season that a top four place might be achievable, especially if one of those above falter, but I believe they will always be at least two wins away from catching the tail, however, this season they will (sadly) be too good for the chasing pack. Woolwich fans will be able to brag that they’re in a league of their own…
6th Wolves – There will be no European football next season for Wolves and you would think that would play into their hands perfectly, but the race for the last European spot will have heated up more than ever and they will end up hoping one of the teams above win a cup or two, if they can’t squeeze into the last place.
7th Tottenham – And there you have it – not 8th. That’s the level of confidence I have in my team and their poisonous has been of a manager. Nothing that has happened pre-season to make me think we have a foreskin’s chance at a circumcision of winning anything – Hojbjerg is an average alternative to what we already had, but at least it will shake things up. The imminent arrival of Wolves’ Matt Doherty at right back does little to inspire when rivals are splashing £50m on their own full back, but he does have form. Oh and… Joe Hart… FFS – who is already claiming he’s better than Hugo Lloris. I don’t believe we will play attractive football, we will draw far too many matches and be picked apart by far more adventurous teams. The hunger and passion has evaporated and we don’t see anywhere near enough of the dazzling attacking play that made us so dangerous. It will be a season of deep disappointment scarred by pointless defeats, humiliating cup exits and a growing clamour for the removal of the manager who, of course, will blame everything on someone else. Will he be sacked? It may happen if we’re mid-table and out of the EFL and Europa cups, but it depends on how much it will cost penny-pinching Daniel Levy.
8th Everton – is the spiritual brother of Spurs - so much potential and yet so little achievement. Everton’s problem is they have a great manager and a disjointed, unbalanced squad with far too many average players. A huge amount of investment is needed and the ability to attract top players to their side. They need quality in most positions and I don’t see them getting it, just yet, however the signings of Dacoure, Allan and Hammez Rodriguez could be just what they need to get the ball rolling. They might, as I always predict, confound expectations and win a cup.
9th Leicester – This will be a disappointing year for Brendan ‘3-2-1’ Rodgers because they just won’t be good enough to maintain the chase, especially with Europa Cup involvement and a reasonably untested squad of fringe players. Vardy might not shine as bright and I can heads dropping.
10th Southampton – this will be classed as an achievement, but only just. The Saints will finish last in the top 10 race, but they will have a cushion over the bottom half of the table, which will, at times, have been as tight as the top. They’ll beat teams above and below, but not enough to progress the way their manager probably would expect. They need to spend money and convince players to join. Tough call.
11th Leeds – Speaking of tough calls: what Leeds will return to the Premier League? Will it be the slick team that threatened the Champions League in 2000 or the one that sank without a trace in 2004? Marcelo Bielsa is a bit of a legend amongst other managers and this team with its youth and fearlessness will be interesting to watch. I expect they will do enough to never be threatened, too much, with relegation.
12th Burnley – It might be time for Sean Dyche to see if he really is a top manager and to do that he needs to be offered a better job. What he achieves with his – on paper – average side harks back to Allardyce turning Bolton into players. This coming season they will have to settle for second best of the rest.
13th West Ham – David Moyes probably isn’t the man to take this club forward and I kind of expect Eddie Howe to take over by Christmas and that would be a good fit. They will be little more than makeweights and will be fearful of losing their top players to better clubs.
14th Sheffield Utd – forecasting second season syndrome is like shooting fish in a barrel, but many have confounded the experts and done well. The Blades need to stay in the top flight and survival is key. Their debut season was beyond expectations, but this year the board will just be happy to be in the mix for a third season in the elite. Chris Wilder, like Dyche, is a manager with a growing reputation, he might need to leave his beloved club to realise that potential.
15th Crystal Palace – Will always find what they need to avoid being dragged into a relegation battle while always being on the fringes of it. They need to score goals. This could be Woy’s swan song.
16th Fulham – the bane of my predicting life, them and QPR. I expect Scott Parker’s job this season is not to repeat the last time they were in the top flight and to ensure they get a second consecutive one. Will play some good football and pull off a shock or two (probably against Spurs), but will have long periods of nothing going right for them.
17th Brighton – Perm any three from four; these will be one of the teams that will ping-pong between the bottom places and minimum safety all season – the bottom will be as tight as the top at times. They will have enough.
18th Newcastle – The Bar Codes might find the more even playing field they had gifted to them last season might be a tad more difficult this. Unlikely to sign anyone with real quality, they will slowly drift into the drop zone more through inability to get points in key matches than through being really poor.
19th Aston Villa – out of their depth and out of time, although a prime candidate to become the new boomerang side. The thing is they do have an advantage over teams with higher aspirations; they are Aston Villa and they’ve been champions of England and Europe inside the lifetime of many; whether they’re sleeping giants or decomposing relics is a tough one, but they won’t have enough to beat the drop this time.
20th West Brom – I fear I won’t be the only person who puts WBA at the bottom of the heap. I do believe that all of the bottom 8 clubs will be involved in a relegation battle at some point all season, but I fear the Albion might not have the staying power and when the going gets tough they could do a Norwich.

FA Cup – Man Utd
League Cup – Everton
Champions League – Bayern Munich
Europa League – Arsenal (just to rub Spurs’ fans noses in it some more)
Cobblers – 17th but safe.
Stenhousemuir – 5th and battling for a play-off shot.



Meanwhile, down the road in Shoesville...


Football under Covid restrictions without crowds is like the skiing down Pavonis Mons. There’s no atmosphere, and the end is never in sight. Still it’s better than no footy at all I suppose. The tiny gap between last season and this one means I have approximately five minutes to get this done, which gives me a better excuse than usual for my wayward predictions. Here goes…

1st - Man City – It’s them or the unmentionables, as those two are still way ahead of the rest, so I have to hope that Pep is sufficiently riled by the runaway success of them in Red down the East Lancs road, that he can steer Citeh back to the summit. Of the two title contenders Citeh have more strength in depth, is my more logical assumption. Even so, £41m for Nathan Ake?! Wotdefook?

2nd Liverpool – Like Citeh, they have made very few additions, and shipped a few out, so it’s as you were. They are a couple of injuries away from having their burgeoning ambitions checked. I hope.

3rd Chelsea – Of the top half clubs in this list, only two clubs have made significant additions, and in addition Chelsea have spent more than anyone. With no pre-season, it remains to be seen how those additions work out, but on that basis, and just to vary my top 4 from Phil’s, I predict 3rd.

4th Man Utd – Got better as the season went on, stopped, and eventually stuttered over the line. The season, not Utd. I reckon they will keep up the improvement, but I don’t think they have enough quality to go higher than 4th. A largish gap to 5th.

5th Arsenal – In transfer terms, the Arse have long been stingier than their more famously tight-fisted neighbours, but looking at their acquisitions, they have done some canny business. This time their Chelsea cast-off looks like a steal. Willian has more class in his pinky than that perennially overrated lummox with the excessive hair at the back. Plus, they can’t be a crap as last season, surely?

6th Everton – Yes, it’s another stupidly hopeful punt for my lot. Last season, Everton’s slothful excuse for a midfield were practising social distancing before it was a thing, only their safe measure was about 15 metres, leaving massive holes for any opposition with its wits about it to exploit at will.
However… Everton are second only to Chelsea in squad-altering acquisitions this term, and if (it’s a big if), Rodriguez, Allan, and Dacoure gel quickly, we have a decent team. Nowt in the way of back up, as most of last season’s deadwood is still here. Our wage bill must be eye-watering, and I wonder how we will get under the FFP radar, if my daft prediction of 6th, and thereby European qualification comes true.
Our first game is away to Spuds, and crap as they might be, on their ground we are worse, as we haven’t won at WHL (is it still called that?) since 1806. It’s the hope that kills you.

7th Tottenham – Unable or unwilling to throw enough money at the team when they reached the lofty heights of successive Chumps League qualification to turn them into true Championship contenders, an inevitable gradual decline has since set in. When [one of] your big signing[s] is Joe Hart on a free, the measure of the club’s current ambition is clear for all to see. That lovely new stadium is going to take some paying off, it seems.
They will still beat us in the opening fixture though, that is almost guaranteed. And they might win a cup.

8th Wolves – Another more than decent team with a charismatic manager, but I suspect they have hit a ceiling. Ask Spurs what happens then – ennui sets in and it all goes a bit “meh”.

9th Leicester – Vardy ain’t getting any younger is he?


This is where it gets a tad difficult. Everything down to 9th is fairly obvious (pretend you didn’t see Everton in there), but below that it is a lottery. It will be as tight as Cher’s face.


10th Leeds – The safe bet is that Southampton are the best of the rest, but I fancy Leeds, who will either hit these dizzy heights or go straight back down again, such is the unknown quantity factor. Unlike Phil, I know nowt about their manager, but it seems he is fawned over by llamas back home. He seems a bit mad, which is always good.

11th – Burnley – This one really depends if Sean Dyche isn’t tempted by a bigger club who need saving from relegation round about mid-season, whenever that is, with the prospect of better things to come. Newcastle, maybe, if they have finally unburdened themselves of Mike Ashley. If Dyche goes they could fall faster than the UK’s current international reputation.

12th Southampton – I like Ralph Hassenhutl (I had to look up how to spell his surname, I admit!). He’s like Klopp’s sane brother. Maybe that’s the problem, he’s a little too safe. As for the club, they’re another one that without significant investment will never be more than makeweights. I wonder how their pre-season management planning meetings go? It must be difficult raising excitement levels above a sleepy torpor. I recommend Ralph turns up in lederhosen.

13th West Ham – The best of the also-rans. Moyes does what Moyes does best. No surprises.

14th Crystal Palace – Under Woy, Palace have put in a trademark application for 14th. This assumes Zaha stays, and stays relatively injury-free. If he goes, probably three or four places lower.

15th Fulham – This high only due to the size of the owner’s wallet.

16th Sheffield Utd – They might be lucky to stay up, but I’ll give them 16th, through the sheer force of will of their boss. Can’t see a repeat of last year’s unexpected heights, as they lack the surprise factor this time round.

17th Aston Villa – I have always had a soft spot for the Villains, them being the other half of the oldest and most played top flight fixture. Dean Smith is an identikit “tough guy” English boss, in the manner of Dyche. It may be only his strength of character that keeps them up.

18th Brighton – Like Southampton only worse. Would give their fish’n’chip suppers to be that average.

19th Newcastle – I used to laugh at the Barcodes, a club and a fanbase with delusions of grandeur, yet they have won diddly in my lifetime, apart from maybe a Fairs Cup? Now, I just feel sorry for them. “Mike Ashley is a cunt” must be the most repeated phrase of any Barcode, now being shouted on every street corner in Toon after the much anticipated Saudi takeover went tits up, possibly because the sheikhs couldn’t countenance subsidising a man who probably aspires to a similar or worse human rights record. Until the fat controller sells up, you can’t see them progressing at all.
It’s amazing they have kept hold of Joelinton (so far, there’s still time), the one bright spark in a stripey sludge of average. The only other thing that would keep them up, apart from a takeover, is the roar of 50000 Geordies at every home game. With no prospect of that for the foreseeable, they are royally fucked, m’lud.

20th West Brom – If ever a club has “bottom” stamped on its arse as the door slams on it, it’s West Brom, a club who aspire to be dour.

FA Cup – Spurs
League Cup – Spurs under-12s
I have no opinion on other trophies.
The Cobblers – lucky to stay up.

***

And that concludes the vote from the English ones.

Monday, 30 March 2020

Filling the Void

I gave up on Football Manager a few years ago. I had a rubbish old computer and playing a season almost felt like actually playing a season. My PC had the minimum requirements to run the game effectively (but I had to pare back on leagues and the number of players), albeit slower than a snail racing a sloth over molasses.

About six months before the apocalypse, I purchased a new home computer. I'm old, I wanted something I could sit at a desk and use; so none of these tablets or modern mobile phone rubbish, I wanted something to remind me that I'm a product of the 20th century.

To treat myself, I bought last year's Football Manager. I spent a few hours updating the editor ensuring the first season I played was going to be as close to how it looked as possible. The game, a vastly different thing to FM14, the last time I purchased it, was tough to get the feel of and I had several aborted starts while I got the hang of it. I also decided not to cheat, even if it meant losing to Arsenal (which hasn't happened so far).

I started the 2019/20 season at the end of February. The major things I did was sell Ben Davies, Moussa Sissoko and Heung Min Son. The first was out of choice, the second the board took the option to sell away from me, selling the Korean for £60million + add-ons, without me having a say in the matter. How lifelike was this new game? Son broke a leg in City's third game of the season.

To make matters worse, five days before the transfer deadline Levy sold Alderweireld for £61m to Man Utd and wouldn't let me send Ledley King on an extensive Continental A licence course. He did allow me to buy Matthijs de Ligt from Juventus for £30m and I took a gamble on a number of young inexperienced players to act as backup for key positions. Top signing was Toni Lato, an 18-year-old Italian left back, who was bought with 3½ star potential and quickly turned into a superstar when Rose kept getting sent off. His rating shot up to a potential of 5 stars and he was playing at 4 stars by the end of the season, relegating an argumentative and bitter Danny Rose to the U23 squad and being transfer listed.

Borja Emeterio was signed as a backup for Aurier (who performs consistently well in FM, remarkably),  Miguel Baeza was brought in for small beans to cover Lucas and for a laugh, I popped over to Brazil to see if I could take long-time FM superstar Gabriel Batista on loan, to double up on all attacking midfield positions. I was not only amazed I got him, but I managed to get a £35m buy-out. I also attempted to find a promising midfielder and settled on Claudio Gomez from one of Spanish giants; more so in this than any previous game you see the need for attracting top scouts. Gomez came to me on loan with a 5 star recommendation, but was actually on 2½ after assessment from the coaching staff - the game recommended I terminate the loan deal because the player was not good enough.

I then played this season.

Six games in an Man U were top with six wins from six and we were second with five wins and a draw. Then we got thumped 4-1 at Southampton and lost at home to Man City and slumped down to 8th. This was only the 2nd of what would turn out to be a total of 5 defeats all season, including defeats to Real Madrid and Spartak Moscow in the Champs League and defeat in the FA Cup QF to Everton.

Spurs won the league by 1 point, beating Man City in the penultimate game of the season at the Etihad to go above them with just a win at home to Watford to guarantee us the title. Kane scored a hat trick as Spurs beat the Hornets 3-0 to win their first Premier League. I also had won the League Cup beating Leicester 3-1 and the Champions League beating Chelsea also 3-1. A treble in my first season (and Everton won the Europa League even though I wasn't aware they'd qualified for it and the Arse finished 8th).

I felt an enormous amount of weirdness to be honest. My biggest criticism of FM is that once you understand how the game worked it was easy to win even without cheating; whatever algorithms they use - in game - always seem weighted to winning. In FM14, I took Northampton from League Two to the Premier League and a 6th place finish before actually having a lousy season and getting relegated (and then losing interest...). It would appear that even modern versions of the game allow people who know what they're doing find it easier. Like the random button on MP3 players; just how random is 'random'?

Equally; how long before I would have grown bored with this new game had my FM version of Spurs become as uninteresting as the real life version? "How's the game? Oh, I finished 12th, lost my striker to Man U and won fuck all again; it was great." Is not something to inspire you to keep Football Manager in business.

Three days ago, I started next season. Lato's out with a broken leg, meaning I had to buy a player. I got Kurasawa from PSG for £22m and he's going to give me a hard time. because 9 games into his first season he's angling for a new contract. I dumped Gomez back to Barca and was amazed to find I could buy Jadon Sancho from Dortmund for £20m, so I did, even though the fans think it was a stupid decision, he's scored five goals in his six games. Parrot is now in the main squad and has fantastic potential even if he's acting like a spoiled shit. Foyth's improvement has been positive as I didn't think he would make the grade and two apprentices have been promoted to the main squad because they're too good not to: Noel Willock was literally the perfect replacement for Eriksen, even if he's only 16 and Baz Chumley is an 18-year-old centre midfielder, who the coaches feel could be world class (I don't think either of these exist in the real world).

Nine matches in and we're 4th, in a six way battle, with two points dividing everyone. We've won 6 and drawn 3 and are currently on a 38 match unbeaten streak in the league. Levy, despite the success, is still giving me a hard time with budgets and I'd say 80% of the problems I've had with unhappy players have been down to the chairman; either not allowing players to have improved contracts or simply selling players without asking me (and then in the manager appraisal Levy tells me the fans thought selling Toby was bad business!). One tip for aspiring future players; a player's potential and ability will drop if you consistently don't offer them a new contract, even if you want to. Levy only wants to pay Lucas Moura what his potential says, which means, despite being a key member of the team, I have a ceiling which the chairman will not allow me to go above, even if I fiddle with the budgets. It's like the game knows Levy is renowned for this kind of thing...

If only real football could be as easy as FM, eh?

Stay safe, footballing chums.