Sunday, 11 August 2024

The Annual Football Predictions Blog 2024/25


It's August again and therefore it's time for the annual BIG predictions blog. This is something that I have done for over 20 years; but since 2016 on this specific blog and I like to think I get it close most years, although to be fair I'm often so far out that it's hilarious - forecasting Leicester to be relegated the year they won the league being the best, but also the extreme optimism of believing QPR or Fulham would be more successful at times when all they did was get relegated. The dangers of doing this blog a week or so before the start of the season, or three weeks before the close of the transfer window often means that things happen that make me want to dive back in a do a revision - and if I want to be honest, I have done this on a couple of occasions and usually I regret it.

So... as a Spurs supporter, I am often far more optimistic about my team than anyone else, but in general I have had a good record of predicting where they finish. I have been a tad too optimistic sometimes, but equally I've sometimes been a bit negative and been proven wrong. This season is difficult to predict because Spurs (and many others) might do some more transfer business after this is published. Spurs might also not use some of the academy graduates as much as I hope we will - what's the point of playing them pre-season if you're not going to use them at some point during a long campaign with many more matches? I believe if you don't play kids with bags of potential they end up like Troy Parrot, plying his trade in the Netherlands at a club who will be playing for a UEFA Conference League place...

Let's get this thing done then. Here is what I tentatively believe will be the finishing order come May 2025...

1st: Man City
It could be Pep's last season, it might not. I can't see any other team winning this and that's not because I wouldn't give Woolwich the nod (but, I wouldn't). The thing is I really can't see any other team winning it. Yes, it's a cop out prediction but they are probably the best team in the world and the only way I'd struggle to tip them to win is if they lost Haaland, Foden and Rodri through season ending ACL injuries.

2nd: Woolwich FC
There's no denying that after many seasons of them playing second fiddle to Spurs, the 'Captain Black' rebuild has started to pay dividends, even if they haven't actually won anything since 2020. They have bought some decent players and they will push City all the way, but they will come up short (hopefully).

3rd: Liverpool
There will be a gap between 2nd and 3rd. Liverpool will be fighting for third this season with a fleeting title challenge that will never look particularly like one. The new man Arne Slott will fair better than other new managers, but he has a relatively settled squad and let's be honest about this, there are no teams outside to the top two who are going to be serious challengers this coming season.

4th: Tottenham
Yes, I think Big Ange will go one better, the thing is even if the new striker hits the ground running I still see them only finishing 4th, at best. It won't be a much better season than last year; they might even beat Chelsea for once; one problem is they aren't challengers and I'll have my supporter status revoked when I say they also won't win anything, again; they might be closer and could lose a final. The other problem is I'm not sure they've improved. I have major reservations about the signing of Dominic Solanke for £65million; I don't think he's good enough for a team to be challenging for a top four spot and I suspect Daniel Levy will end up with egg on his face over this purchase: expect fewer than 10 goals from him this season. The same old problems will come back to haunt us; struggling to beat inferior teams, looking second best to better ones and the only reason I reckon they'll finish fourth is they might end up being the best of the challenging group; however, I'm not confident and they could easily end up in 7th.

5th: Newcastle
Without European football and with a fully fit and added to squad, I think Newcastle will look more like the team from the season before last. Europe and a run of bad injuries did for them last time out, but this time they will be in the mix for a top four spot. They will go on long runs without defeat but suffer from a couple of runs of bad results which will make them also rans. However, with consistency they could end up in 4th, especially if Spurs haven't improved the way they should have done.

6th: Aston Villa
It was Europe that did it for the Bar Codes last season and Villa's place at the top table in its new look will probably prove to be difficult. They will do reasonably in Europe, but will probably only reach the first knockout stage; the constant strain of two top matches a week will be a struggle because they don't have two A teams and injuries will affect them. They will still be better than teams one would expect to be above them.

7th: Man Utd

Erik Ten Hag will be sacked after Christmas. A team dogged by injuries and inconsistency will have a sense of Deja vu as the same will happen again. I mean, you spend £52mil on Leny Yoro who is now out until Christmas... It will be another miserable season for Man U fans and there will be protests almost weekly especially when the shit really hits the fan. It couldn't happen to a better team.

8th: West Ham
Lopetegui is a class signing and the Hammers have signed some good players. They will be a good side to watch but there is going to be seven teams better than them. There will be a gap between them and the team in 9th, but a fruitless season and a mid table finish will feel disappointing, but they're in a rebuild phase and maybe the 2025/26 season might be where we see them challenge for the top six.

9th: Chelsea
Maresca - the former Leicester manager - is going to have the same problems as Pochettino and suffer from inconsistency - he might not even last the entire season. Chelsea might do well in the UEFA Conference League because they will be one of the favourites, but in the end there will be too many league hiccups along the way; and will they be able to play all eight of their goalkeepers? Another question many fans would like to know the answer to is how this club can spend so much money and never fall foul of FFP. If you think Man City takes the piss then Chelsea takes it and then takes some more. They have spent over £1.5billion since Boehly took over and yet because they sign players on incredibly long contracts and buy hotels from themselves the EPL and UEFA don't see this as a problem. This club makes FFP look like a nasty penalty to smaller clubs or ones who need to spend money to try and survive - an absolute joke. This club are becoming more vile and hated than Woolwich...

10th: Crystal Palace
Glasner did wonders with Palace at the end of last season, but there's a risk they will have sold their best players and not replaced them with the same quality. At this moment in time Palace are no better than a mid table side, but they won't be involved in the skirmish that will take place below them. They will get some notable scalps and won't be as easy to beat as they once were, but they aren't better than 10th, especially if they have to re-sign Zaha from Turkey to fill the voids left.

11th: Fulham
It's the best they can expect. They have a good manager, have bought some very good players, but in the end there are going to be a lot of sides that are better than them. I mean, are they even better than Palace? Marco Silva is the kind of manager who would do well at a better side, but he's also a bit temperamental. 

12th: Brighton
New manager and a lot of players have gone. They are now a mainstay in the Premier League and like Fulham and Palace won't be dragged into the relegation battle, but that's the best this side can expect. They're not the side they were two years ago and a lot of the teams who finished below them have got better, Brighton haven't.

13th: Brentford
They had a tough season last year and while this season is going to be another tough one, I can't see the Bees doing anything more than just flirting with relegation. They're too good to go down (and I am aware of how that statement often comes back and bites pundits on the arse). It really depends on Ivan Toney, who Brentford probably want to sell but no one wants to buy him for that ridiculous price. Maybe they try and sell him in January for £20mil, then he becomes an interesting buy.

14th: Bournemouth
Andoni Iraola did wonders last season and if the Cherries replace Solanke then they can expect another season of consolidation. 14th might sound like a struggle but it's safety and that counts more than anything else to a club of this level.

15th: Wolves
Gary O'Neill was a shock decision after Lopetegui quit and people thought that Wolves were on a doomed track. This is going to be a second season syndrome for the manager. Wolves have good players but have lost some better ones. This is a confidence side and when things go wrong they will go on a doom spiral that will plunge them into trouble. In the end there will be a few teams just not as good as them, but it will be squeaky bum time.

16th: Everton
Am I keeping the Toffees up because my best mate is a supporter or are they simply better than the four teams who will finish below them? If Dyche can get a tune out of whoever he has left after they sell all their assets to stop having more points docked then they will have just enough to stay safe. However, it really might simply be a case of there being four teams who are worse than them.

17th: Leicester
You watch, they'll finish in the top 6 and surprise everyone. Except they won't. This will be a skin of their teeth season. They may survive because they draw more games than the three below them. Cooper is a dodgy decision as manager and if he lasts the season I will be surprised; this isn't the Foxes of old.

18th: Nottm Forest
You'd think they'd finish higher but this is a potentially great Championship standard side that will struggle and never quite get back to a level that will save them. They will also have three managers next season.

19th: Southampton
Last season all three promoted sides went down and this time two of the three will. Saints simply won't be good enough. Have not signed anyone good enough and will only finish 19th because Ipswich will be worse.

20th: Ipswich
You'd like to think this underdog story has a happy ending but it won't. McKenna is a great young manager and he won't get sacked because Ipswich's owners will expect this to happen. It's about building for the future.


League (Carabao) Cup: It could be Newcastle's time to win a trophy

FA Cup: Man City

Champions League: Real Madrid or Man City

Europa League: Not Spurs or Man U

Conference League:  Not Chelsea

Championship: Whoever it is they will dread the following season, but there's no team that stands out

League 1: Wrexham to finish in a play off spot; Northampton bottom half

League 2: Doncaster

Scottish League One: Stenhousemuir to finish 6th