I don’t think there’s been a more difficult season to
predict. New managers, players and teams in the top flight with obvious
favourites and teams that will almost certainly struggle to say. While
predicting a winner is almost too easy, it will be who goes down that will have
the most interest because on last year’s evidence a number of once top teams
may find going very hard, especially without the kind of investment needed to
just tread water.
For the first time in over a decade, my best friend and Everton supporter Roger is not partaking in this. He's had a shit year and Everton, while still in the Premier League, aren't exactly filling their fans with optimism. So I'm flying solo this season. Let's hope that Everton confound expectations and 2024 is a better year for old Big Nose #1 and he's back here next year with his usual footy witticisms.
Here’s my forecast for the 2023/24 season:
1. Manchester City
– yes, they’ve sold a few players, but I can’t see them being stopped. They
have a number of youngsters coming through who look readymade replacements,
such as Cole Palmer who dazzled at the Euro U21 championship and scored that peach of a goal in the Charity Shield defeat. I expect no one
will stop them, but they will, as usual, slip up a few times to give the
chasing pack some hope.
2. Arsenal – as
much as it pains me to say, this is a team that has recruited well this summer
and will be determined to have another good season despite having extra
pressure heaped on them by being back in the Champions League again. They just
might be too strong for the chasing pack, but a long way short of actually
challenging, but their progress will piss a lot of Spurs fans off.
3. Manchester United
– I put them in 3rd more because I fail to see other teams
capitalising. Erik ten Hag has done a good job but I think they’re going to
struggle to stay in the race. Some reasonable signings and probably their best
manager since SAF, they’re going to be a good bet for winning a domestic cup if
Man City takes their eye off the ball.
4. Liverpool –
This is my first real gamble. They have lost a few solid players, albeit
probably past their prime and the recruitment hasn’t been spectacular, but I think
the Europa League will suit Klopp for a season; he can experiment with squad
players and concentrate on improving results in the league. It’s going to be a
huge race for 4th this season and I think the Reds will scrape into
it.
5. Newcastle United
– I think the Champions League will be their domestic league undoing. This is
going to be a tough season for a team that seems to have recruited well, but
they’re now going to have a target on their backs and the schedule might prove
to be a problem. They will still have enough to finish high, but not high
enough to continue the meteoric rise Howe’s had since arriving. However 5th
is now the Holy Grail for some teams because from this season it means
Champions League qualifiers at least.
6. Tottenham Hotspur
– Another optimistic gamble on my part, but frankly even without Harry Kane
this is a team with enough ability to be up there. No European commitments, a
refreshed squad and a manager with an attacking nature and the desire to bring
Spurs football back to Tottenham. They’ve recruited well, considering no
European football and the likes of Maddison and Vicario will set a new
standard. This will be a huge season and I think the team will rise to the
occasion, mainly because they’ve done well with Kane when he’s been injured and
I feel his departure will lift the pressure some players have had on them – it’s
their turn to shine.
7. Chelsea – the
best Pochettino can hope for is European football at the end of his first
season. I know Alan Hansen famously said you can’t win anything with kids and
was proved extremely wrong, but this Chelsea side is a work in progress; they
seem to have signed everybody with potential but it’s going to take time for
them to gel. I expect there will be massive highs and disappointing lows and
the pressure will be on the former Spurs man to deliver in his second season,
which is a long way away.
8. Aston Villa –
8th is going to seem like a massive disappointment, especially
considering they’ve signed some top players, but the Europa Conference was a
real hindrance to West Ham and I think Unai Emery’s men are going to find the
Thursday/Sunday schedule tough to get used to. They will take big points off
the top teams but may well struggle against teams they should beat. Might win
the Conference, they have a squad that should be better than the rest.
9. Brighton –
another team that is going to find Europe extremely tough going and you can’t
escape the fact they’re a selling club and need to ensure those they’ve lost
are replaced with equally good players, which seems unlikely. Will continue to
play lovely football, but may struggle away from home.
10. Crystal Palace
– my personal jury is out regarding Woy Hodgson but they have a squad that is
more than capable of being better than the rest. 10th is about as
good as any Palace fan can expect given the quality that usually finish above
them and while there’s no doubt they won’t be involved in a relegation fight,
they’re also not going to be involved in a European chase either.
11. Burnley – if
Vincent Kompany is as good a coach as many believe him to be and with the very
canny signings he’s made, I think the Lancashire club are going to surprise a
lot of people and won’t be anywhere near a relegation fight. James Trafford is
an excellent signing from Man City and he will stake a claim to be England’s 2026
goalkeeper. This is a side that will upset a lot of teams.
12. West Ham –
losing Declan Rice was tough, but given the quality of some of the relegation
fodder, David Moyes should be able to juggle the Europa League with a safe EPL finish
quite easily. Despite little recruitment, this is largely the same squad that
many thought would be challenging for a Top six place and while they didn’t do
that they did win a European trophy and that will galvanise the team.
13. Fulham – why
so low given what a cracking season they had on their return to the top flight?
I think they’re going to find teams will expose the gaps this team has and if
Mitrovic goes I struggle to see where their goals are going to come from. I
doubt they’ll be involved in a relegation dog fight but Marco Silva might start
to wonder why he didn’t take the Saudi shekels when they offered them.
14. Everton –
even without serious recruitment Sean Dyche will do what he did with Burnley
and make this team too good to go down and better than the six team below them.
The threat of relegation will hang over them but I think the gap between
Everton and the bottom five will be telling by season’s end.
15. Brentford –
this could be the story of a season of two halves – one without Toney and one
with. Brentford needs to at the very least tread water until their goal scoring
talisman returns from his extremely long betting ban. Thomas Frank is a great
manager, but this is going to be a tough season for the Bees because a lot of
teams will have sussed out how they play and be prepared for it. A relegation
fight isn’t out of the question, but ultimately they’re going to be too good
for the bottom five…
16. Bournemouth –
regardless of the reputation of their new manager and what can be classed as a
bolstering of the squad, Bournemouth are going to struggle to stay in the
Premier League, but will probably achieve it by virtue of not being the worst
team and taking vital points off of all their rivals.
17. Nottm Forest
– I don’t expect Chris Cooper will be in charge by the end of the season; he
may well be the first managerial casualty. This is a club that appears to have
thrown caution and money to the wind in its recruitment policy and that might
be the one thing that keeps them up – they have some good players.
18. Wolves – this
is a huge gamble and could depend on whether Julen Lopetegui stays. If he goes
I can’t see this team getting enough points to stay in the league, but even if
he stays I don’t think Wolves have recruited much at all, don’t appear to have
any money and there’s a feeling that all is not well at Molineux. I don’t
expect he’ll be sacked, but I do expect he’ll walk before Christmas if things
are looking perilous, if that happens they’re doomed.
19. Sheffield United
– I don’t know if they’ve recruited well, I expect they’re going to be hoping
that teams struggling in the relegation zone last season won’t have improved
and they can scrape a second season by virtue of not being one of the worst. I
can’t see them doing anything but struggling, but I expect them to take at
least 3pts off of Spurs because they do that whenever they’re in the top
flight.
20. Luton – might spring a few surprises, will draw a lot of games, but in the end the lack of quality and sheer weight of the task ahead of them is going to be too much. They could rival Swindon and Derby for the title of worst team ever to play in the EPL.
FA Cup winners - Man City
League Cup winners - Man City
Champions League winners - Bayern Munich
