Saturday, 10 August 2019

The 2019/2020 Football Predictions


It’s that time of the year again when both the big noses indulge themselves in crystal ball gazing. I’ll kick off with my predictions and then Roger will sidle up to my Word document, whisper sweet nothings at it while defecating all over the keyboard. Yes, football’s back (if you don’t count the Women’s World Cup, Europa and Champs league preliminaries, Scottish football and various U19, U21 and U23 tournaments all shown on cable). Yay, football is baaaaack...

Manchester City: Two points. Firstly, this lad Rodri they’ve bought. In 9 months football pundits will look at you in disgust if you mention Rodri and Fernandinho in the same sentence; the Spanish lad will be revered, you watch. Secondly, if Phil Foden is as good as Pep reckons... Let’s put it this way, I don’t think Liverpool will have as good a season as they did last year; I do think Citeh will, possibly even improving by a fraction or two. Strength up and down the team, the only person not unduly worried by the seeming lack of central defenders is the manager – speaks volumes that. 1st

Tottenham: I have this feeling, now that Daniel Levy has spent some money, that this could be a big improvement on last season, which is needed as it felt a little like the end of an era at times. The new guys – Tanguy Ndombele, Ryan Sessignon and Giovanni Lo Celso all have potential for bigger and better things and with barely anyone leaving of note, Spurs can at least enter the season with a far bigger squad able to contend with injuries. I expect fewer defeats, more commanding displays and a closer gap between them and the two above them. I expect Eriksen will go by the end of the European transfer window, but if he doesn’t he needs to knuckle down and treat every game like a game he’s up for because he disappears far too quickly and can often win games, but more often appears to be carried. I would like to see Spurs win something, but to do that now needs more investment than sheer luck, but win something, install a ‘winning mentality’ and they could well push on. The stadium, sponsorship and all manner of deals done outside of football suggests the team is ready to properly join the top 4 club, that means winning something; usually something big – probably not this season. 2nd  

Liverpool: Will still be there or thereabouts, but more likely the latter. A few teams will start to work out how this side play and there’s going to be a complacency problem at times, oh and the exhaustion of having to play up to 67 games between the Community Shield and possibly an attempt at retaining their Champions League trophy. That is pretty much two games a week. There is also going to be pressure to take the lesser cups more seriously; I don’t know who from, probably journalists, but I think momentum thru progression is expected and I feel, ultimately, it might be another nearly season. 3rd  

Arsenal: It must have been extremely perplexing to Spurs fans to see Arsenal so busy in the transfer window and them only playing Thursday Night Football in Europe – but an overhaul was probably, like Spurs, long overdue. I really believe Emery’s task this year is to return to Wenger ways – top 4 at all cost. It’s uninspiring and a little defeatist and I wonder what Arsenal fans must think of a club that appears to treat top 4 as a trophy, of sorts. Let’s face it, at the moment you’re going to have to be very good to take on Man City and Arsenal are still rebuilding and some way behind Liverpool and their rivals Spurs. I find it weird that I should be urging Arse fans to accept it has to be baby steps to begin with. That said, they’re going to emerge from the pack this season not based on inspiring football, but because everyone around them is heading for a season of crisis. 4th  

Chelsea: For Frank Lampard going to one of his clubs so soon in his managerial career means one thing: succeed, or fail: quicker, more miserably than any other manager and seriously curtail your career. I’m sure he’s not short of a few bob, but Chelsea are that Football Manager Players’ dream/nightmare: having to play with the team you signed up for and not being able to do any transfers. I think he’ll have moments; Roman will stay calm and eventually, like last season they’ll end up in a position that looked unlikely for most of the season. I think, providing it doesn’t all go tits up quickly, he’ll be given some time. Maybe Chelsea fancy creating the next Pep? 5th

Manchester United: Which brings us to the third club that’s going to have a crisis on the pitch: in Man Utd’s case it will be similar to Ole’s first season; great start and then players were found wanting and ones who got reprieved from this season’s cull will be in line next. They will still be thereabouts and might even win a cup, just to remind everyone that while they’re not the best team in Manchester, they’re still better than most of the others. As for Paul Pogba; I’m really sure he brings something to the game, but in the four or five times I saw Man Utd play last season, he was less effective than Charlie Adam. 6th

Everton: Let’s face it, like Spurs wanting to finish about Arsenal, before anything else; Everton would like to be alpha males again and this season has to be the first signs of evidence they’re heading for that region. I’m not sure what they’d do if this season doesn’t see an improvement or even if they can do it? Spurs are only in that elite group by gatecrashing the party with some great football, even if they once didn’t splash the cash. The Toffees are at that stage and have been at for what seems like forever. Lots more expectation than hope in their fans’ camp but a general feeling of not knowing how they can break the top 6. This season it’s about beating Wolves and Leicester into 7th and I think they’ve done enough to make people think they might stand a chance, they need a good start and have completely revamped their team, so I’m not convinced they’ll hit the ground running, but I think they have enough. 7th

Wolves: Despite an excursion into Europa League mayhem, I don’t think that will be too much of a problem for Wolves and it could be believed they’d think a top six position was more than capable and not be happy without one. Outside the top 6 is all they’re capable of at the moment. In 2020 football, 7th is almost a new 1st, because it gives the best team in the rest of a chance to feel better about themselves and it occasionally allows the team to have less holiday so they can play in the Faroe Islands in July while all their mates, at other clubs, are still on the beach sending you pictures of their arses. This is as far as Wolves can progress without an oligarch, Arab or insane American prepared to throw a billion at the club. 8th

Leicester: would like to finish 7th as, logically, it’s as good as it’s ever going to get after the euphoria of winning the league. I think this season it’s simply going to be a case of they could be heading for the potential of becoming the new Everton, which given how close the teams are, sounds really like damning with faint praise. 3-2-1’s Brendan Rogers has a lot on his plate trying to convince richer clubs he deserves another crack at the big time and taking on a team like the Foxes proves he’s got a couple of big sweaty balls. 9th

West Ham: are scum and I should hate them. I mean, we have a rivalry with our rivals; someone, somewhere seems to have invented this rivalry between Spurs and the Hammers. First I’d heard of it was a few years ago and I’m not against wishing them well; far more than Arsenal or Chelsea and because the wife supports them. They have a good manager, who like Woy Hodgson won’t let you down until he does. They’ve spent money again: often West Ham transfer windows look like a kid playing Football Manager. Ooh, he looks good. Buy him. The problem now is, are there any teams outside the top six you can see going on an unbeaten run for ten or fifteen matches? This lot are scum and I should hate them. 10th

Watford: in the current scheme of things, this lot are probably the last of the obvious choices to play in the little mini-league between 7th and 12th. The Italian owners do have ambitions for this club, they simply don’t have the money to ensure those ambitions are anything other than token. Watford often feel like they should be a team I should like, because of it being in Hertfordshire, but they’ve often just been one of the teams making up the numbers, much like they are now. 11th

Burnley: are probably never going to recreate their form of a few years ago, which saw them qualify for Europe, that go horribly wrong and have a massive impact on the subsequent league season. I’m not sure fans of middling Premier League teams want to cut short their summer holidays to watch Burnley versus HB Torshavn. Sean Dyke lives near Northampton; I always thought he sounded like he was local to me... Imagine him wearing a pink leotard, carpet slippers and nipple clamps, it makes knowing Burnley are staying in the EPL a little less painful. 12th

Crystal Palace: essentially what I wrote for Watford but with more speech impediments and the letter W. 7-12th is a success, of sorts, for owners and keeps the price reasonable should they decide to pass the baton on to another mug who doesn’t realise the club has no heritage and isn’t really even in London. They’ll win the race to avoid relegation by March. 13th

Southampton: Joe 90’s evil Austrian twin will get bragging rights and permission to wear the glasses this year. Evil Austrian Twin might realise the actual chances of Southampton bucking the growing trend (of big clubs and also rans) and wonder what it’s like to manage a club with more prospects than EPL stability. Saints want top 4, Ralf can say ‘there’s a four in where we finished’. Saints fans should be holding street parties, in streets. Something else. Blah blah blah. 14th

Aston Villa: I kind of think this could be one of the one or two glaring errors or unexpected survival stories of the season, or something that involves words, in some kind of order. Are Villa this year’s Fulham (as in they’ve replaced the entire team with people you’ve never heard of like a pot head in a sweet shop)? Has the club spunked too much of its junk on a load of shite? Would 15th be regarded as some kind of success? No? Okay. 15th

Bournemouth: I think Bournemouth are better than we think and I really like their manager, Joe 90 [Put a pair of NHS specs on him, shut your eyes and you’re almost there] The thing about this team is they actually look quite comfortable in the Premier League and have almost reached the position where people who still remember Bradford Park Avenue being a league team are even getting used to them being where they are rather than with Ted MacDougal and his 4th Division goal scoring feats... That said, there will probably only be four teams below them. 16th  

Norwich: Delia crying tears of gravy. Gingerbread men swooping off the terraces of Carrow Road. Mustard gas used on innocent Stewart White. Yes. Yes. Yes yes and just about, missus. 17th

Newcastle: ha ha ha ha ha ha ha 18th

Brighton: It was a toss-up between this lot and the lot I went with for bottom and I obviously don’t follow this lot, but when they got rid of Antony Knockaert, I kind of wondered if I’d missed something about football as he was pretty much Brighton’s most inventive and dangerous player last year and therefore, based on that knowledge that I have, I reckon this lot will be this season’s Huddersfield, but not as bad. 19th

Sheffield United: I had a brief flirtation with the Blades in the early 1970s. I was disillusioned supporting Spurs and the Blades had got promoted, were briefly at the top of the league and [players names from then] was or were [something] etc etc etc. Blah blah blah valiant performances. Blah blah blah great supporters. Blah blah blah fans singing ‘can we play you every week’ to Spurs when they record their only wins of the season, twice in the league and in both cups. Mauricio Pochettino said, “Thank fuck they didn’t play in the Champions League.” 20th

FA CUP: Man City
League Cup: Man City
The EFL Vanarama Rumbelows Johnstone’s Paint Trophy: Man City U21s
Champions League: Man City
Europa League: Wolves
Championship Winners: Derby
Cobblers to finish 9th (or maybe 19th)

Over the Roger for the weather in his own unique way...

Arsenal - 3rd
The expensive winger will be absorbed into the Arsenal murk of big wins followed by inexplicable losses. Top sometime in November, followed by the inevitable wobble. They're an odd bunch, the Gooners. Will sleepwalk into 3rd, given Chelsea's transfer woes, Spuds stingyness, and Utd's ordinariness. A hundred miles off 2nd, mind.

Aston Villa - 16th
It's good to see The Villans back in the top flight, and it resurrects the most played top flight fixture too. The only promoted side to borrow and spend heavily against the Prem TV money, will their scattergun transfer policy/gamble pay off? As an Everton fan I know only too well that signing everything that moves below the radar of the big hitters rarely works, but I'll give them the benefit of the doubt. There's no cow in Bovril...

AFC Bournemouth - 15th
All the clubs beginning with B (ignore the AFC affectation, if you please) will struggle, but Eddie Howe's lot are the best of that bunch by a decent distance. At some point he'll go to a bigger club, and then the Cherries will be well and truly pipped, but until then they'll survive by the width of a deckchair. Where the Bs end up is anyone's guess, but none of them higher than 15th is my punt. You'd get decent odds for all three Bs getting relegated.

Brighton - 20th
See Bournemmouth... only much worse. I like Chris Houghton, but his team are anonymous, and hopeless.

Burnley - 18th
See Brighton... only not quite as bad. Sean Dyche belongs in the Championship.

Chelsea - 7th
Losing Hazard is so obviously a massive blow for the most disliked club in London, and combined with a transfer ban means it wil be difficult if not impossible for Chelsea to improve on last season, especiallly with a new and unproven manager. Frank Jnr may well do a Solksjaer, and start off with the speed of John Terry hastily leaving a team mate's wife in a hotel room, but will The Czar have the guts to sack a fan favourite when he's lost 6 in a row over Xmas? Yes, he will, obviously. #freezouma ;)

Crystal Palace - 13th
Holding on to Zaha, even a disgruntled Zaha is enough to secure Woy mid twable.

Everton - 6th
Another turbulent summer in the transfer market has seen my lot have a massive dump of unwanted players - 23 at the last count - left by the disastrous Koeman/Walsh/Fat Sam era, and make some decent signings, but the loss of Gueye and Zouma (unlikely we will get him in January now Luis has been shipped out) may prove critical to our chances of improving on last season. Moise Kean (with a name like that he had to sign for us, didn't he?) although only 19 sounds like a great buy, and hopefully a fruitful partnership with DCL awaits. In my never humble opinion we dodged an £80m-sized bullet by not landing Zaha, a ridiculous price for an intermittently good player prone to hissy fits and injury. Iwobi at less than half the price may be bargain of the summer.
However, it's all very well scoring 15 more goals than last year, but if we let in 15 more, it hardly matters. The position of main defensive midfielder is one where age and experience always have it over youth and enthusiasm, and although 23-year old Jean-Phillipe Gbamin may turn out to be the best defensive midfielder since Roy Keane, a direct Gueye replacement he ain't - yet. No replacement for Zouma means we are light in the CB positions, as I strongly suspect Mina may be a walking sicknote, and the cover is no great shakes. I may be completely wrong - it's been known to happen!
Hopefully it all works out and we edge past a faltering Chelski on goal differnce for 6th. Mind you, as we all know, it's the hope that kills you.
#freezouma

Leicester City - 10th
A mini league with Watford and West Ham is not won by the Foxes, despite Brenda's Scottish canniness. Although Maguire is an overrated lummox, they'll still miss him, with no obvious replacement bought. Otherwise, meh...

Liverpool - 2nd
Runners up again despite not splashing any cash. Salah will be found out by VAR, Klopp off to Spain, or the mental health ward. We can but dream. It will be another close one, but not as close as last year.

Manchester City - 1st
You can't really bet against them. About the only thing that will stop them winning the PL, and by more than they did last time, too, is if they get to the semis and beyond in the Champion's League. Then, Pep's focus may well change. Expect some more bizarre cardigan wear in the winter from the winningly personable Spaniard.

Manchester Utd - 4th
How long Gunner Graham lasts in the job is open to question, but I suspect that they'll grind out a few results, and Pogba will win a few singlehanded before sulking for a few games. Harry Maguire £80m?! Really? Solksjaer will keep his job as they finish 4th, a result of falling morale in the Spuds camp when the players find out that Levy is charging them £10 an hour to park at the training ground.

Newcastle Utd - 17th
Broocie Rubberface gone by Xmas, turmoil, cue mucho Geordie wailing, moaning (a lot of moaning), and gnashing of teeth. Saved on the last day of the season by an own goal off Jordan Henderson's arse that secures them the one point needed to stay up. Mike Ashley is burnt at the stake after the game. There's a lot of fat, he burns for a loooong time.

Norwich City - 19th
Narch are back! And straight down!

Sheffield Utd - 14th
Chris Wilder is a very good coach, and may well do a Moyes and get the Blades punching above their weight enough to stay up. 14th is a bit of a gamble, but why not?

Southampton - 12th
I have no idea what to say about Southampton, so I'll say nowt. Midtable obscurity beckons, again.

Tottenham Hotspur - 5th
Still the second best name for a football team in the country, after Accrington Stanley, of course. Remember those close seasons not so long ago when Spuds were associated with any player that so much as looked at his agent, and then they ended up buying only two? These days Spuds are probably the last club to be associated with anyone, and yet another transfer window slams shut on Daniel Levy's titanium reinforced wallet, which was suffering the trauma of having shelled out a club record fee of three shekels plus the club goat on a defensive midfielder/fluffer for the Potch. Didn't they land another midfielder on deadline day? If so, that's two more players than last year, so, progress. Or... stagnation, which means decline, so 5th, with an exodus of the manager and Harry Kane by this time next year. You read it here first - well, that's if my bit goes before Phil's. [It doesn’t]

Watford - 9th
Can last season's dizzy heights be maintained? Very possibly, given the generally poor quality of all the remaining bottom half teams from last season, plus those promoted from the Championship.

West Ham Utd - 11th
The energy vampire that is the London Stadium will hold back the Hammers by at least 2 places from where they should be.

Wolverhampton Wanderers - 8th
There will be very little between 6th, 7th and 8th, and Wolves will only finish bottom of that mini league due to being up and down like the Prime Minister's trousers at an interns' indictment session, as a result of playing in the Thursday Night League, a poisoned chalice unless you have a huge squad. I hope. I like the manager's beard.

FA Cup: Not Everton
League Cup: Not Everton
The EFL Vanarama Rumbelows Johnstone’s Paint Trophy: Not Everton U21s
Champions League: Definitely Not Everton
Europa League: Not Everton
Championship Winners: Not Everton

Rejoin us in May as we laugh and wail about how good/bad/indifferent we were.

Enjoy the football, someone has to.

Monday, 13 May 2019

Season Review: How Do You Not Like That?

It's been the strangest of seasons. Liverpool have had a massively successful season, yet so far have nothing to show for it. 97 points and finishing 2nd has got to be one of the biggest kicks in the guts any team has ever suffered?

Man City were maybe not as worthy champions as Liverpool were unbelievably worthy runners-up. Four defeats against one, both teams virtually unplayable - all season. They have made it a classic season. Except, apart from the token challenge by a Spurs side that already looked like they'd blown it - there was a point where, if Spurs won their remaining 13 games they would have won the league because they would have beaten the then two clubs above them. In reality, they played the last 13 games like a team struggling against a relegation threat and fourth was, in the end, gifted to them by the inconsistency of those below them, especially an incredibly profligate Arsenal, who really should have sown up 3rd weeks ago and ended up 5th.

You kind of have to take Spurs out of standard end-of-season reviews because they're a special exception this year; so if you analyse Chelsea, Arsenal, and Man Utd, the most impressive was undoubtedly Wolves, despite finishing three wins shy of 6th. They still might screw up next season by getting into the Europa League, but they did themselves proud this season and with that kind of improvement the top six will be looking over their shoulders next year. They're ahead of those around them by virtue of being the new boys - second season syndrome could strike if they're playing in the Europa League at the end of July.

Unai Emery had an arguably better season than Wenger's final one, but they still missed out on an automatic Champions League place, but might still squeeze in if they win the Europa; they have Chelsea in their way and there will be no love lost. Chelsea and their fag-smoking mad monk have won no friends and have become a slightly distasteful element of the Premier League. It is a club that is clearly not being run as well as it once was and you feel that they're going to go backwards, especially with a transfer ban (upheld after appeal). Man Utd fans were praising saint OGS 8 weeks ago; they ended the season with almost the worst form in the league and had they not had a good patch might have struggled for 6th. There's a lot of work and money needed to be spent there.

And then there was Spurs. Rediscovered the 'spursy' nickname with some awful performances and instead of salvaging wins from losing positions, they seemed to do the opposite this year. 13 defeats... 7 of those came in the days and weeks following the outside title challenge claim (they did exactly the same in 2012). The last player to sign for Spurs was Lucas Moura, two transfer windows ago and this season the club has been blighted by injuries, have played 4/5ths of the season back at Wembley and no one really expected them to get in the top four, yet they finished 4th and more importantly they did something else.

Looking back at the forecasts Roger and I made in August, neither of us did that bad. I had Fulham in the top 10, he had Watford relegated, I had the top 4 with City as winners, he also had City winning but only two of the others. We were as close as City and Liverpool in the end.

However, while that part has told part of the story, the season is not over. It has something special right at the end. The fact that Arsenal play Chelsea in the Europa final is an achievement in what is a far more unpredictable tournament than the Champions League usually throws up, but that is overshadowed by Liverpool versus Spurs. Yes, Spurs. In the Champions League they have been the team that refuses to lay down and die. They were less than 20 minutes away from elimination in Barcelona in December. They played some of their best football of the season by getting rid of Dortmund and played in two of the most nail-biting ties against Man City. Ajax should have been easy, but Spurs lost the first leg, at home and were 2-0 down at half time in Amsterdam.

Liverpool had not had an easier ride but they struggled to get out of their group and generally sailed through the knockout until they hit Barcelona. Despite playing really well, the reds got stuffed 3-0 and all seemed lost. Just less than 24 hours earlier they were winning 4-0 to mark possibly the most remarkable comeback in European football history. At half-time in Amsterdam, Spurs trudged off looking beaten. The squad, hampered by injuries, quite threadbare and exhausted, also hadn't got Harry Kane. Any Spurs fan would have thought at that point there was not going to be a grandstand finish; most of them were hoping we didn't get humiliated.

The last man to sign for the club, Lucas Moura, teaming up with a rejuvenated Dele Alli, scored three times, his third with almost the last kick of the match to ensure four English clubs compete in the two European cups. As a Spurs fan, all I can say is... blimey.

As a Spurs fan I'm petrified. Ah, forget about the final, I'm proud my team has made it, of course I'll be disappointed if they lose, but... wow, man. No, what I'm petrified about is winning it. Winning would maybe mean losing Pochettino. The players who want to leave to win a European title will have achieved it. Winning it might completely break up a once great thing.

I expect at least five of our players will never pull on a Spurs shirt after June 1st. Spurs have achieved top four finishes for four consecutive years. They cannot be considered as anything than probably the third best side in the country. The board needs to replace the players going and bring in a couple of others and that means rebuilding with players that ease into the team quickly; that don't need to bed in and will expect to be paid the money a top four side should be paying with the resources at their disposal. ENIC needs to take Spurs into the same areas as Arsenal as far as wages are concerned and that will cost them a lot of money and they also need more players... There's nothing to suggest that Daniel Levy will spend anything apart from, well, having to.

No one knows at this point what Chelsea will do between now and August. You expect Olly will get to spend some cash and then half a season before the knives come out and Dick Emery will continue to positively rebuild, depending on which European cup competition the Arse are playing in. The team that is no longer the joker in the pack are the team now punching at a similar weight, with a better stadium and arguably more money but most importantly greater expectations from the fans. There are no more excuses. Investment in the squad has to happen because we're at the end of an era.

The squad that got us here is about to fall apart. The first sign was Kyle Walker, but we coped without him. Then Dembele and we struggled to dominate. Now we're facing more departures and we're in a position where we have to look at our squad and ask ourselves not who needs to go but who needs to stay.

I expect Hugo to remain, I also expect Gazzaniga to take the #2 jersey and possibly an academy promotion to fill the benchwarmer's position.

In defence, regardless of age, Jan Vertonghen shouldn't go anywhere; he's got three years in him at least and what he can teach and what he gives makes him essential. Davinson Sanchez is the other rock and these two would be the centre two for the coming season in my team. It's the rest that are problematic; Serge Aurier won't be going anywhere, I expected him to get time, like Sissoko, and he's useful as a back up. There's a question mark over Juan Foyth but I feel that's fan backlash and press speculation. I believe Eric Dier is a confidence player and needs a run in the team to get him to the position that makes him important; whether he's got first team stamped on him is now a doubt and his temperament can be a problem. He's a better defender than he is a defensive midfielder. Ben Davies is also an adequate squad player and Kyle Walker-Peters is going to need to step up. What the team might need are new left and right backs.

Midfield isn't really a position we've considered a problem in recent years but next season it can't just be built around Winks, Sissoko, Alli and Lamela. It's remarkable that I can consider Moussa Sissoko as worthy of inclusion, yet he's proved his worth more than once and if he can score some goals... Harry Winks runs the midfield in a way that hasn't been seen for years; he always finds space. Dele Alli needs to step up; a good rest over the summer will do him the world of good and I believe that he'll be used deeper in the next season because he controls it very well and could well fill part of the void from Eriksen's inevitable departure. Lamela will, if injury free, be given one more season to see if he can consistently do what he occasionally does. I expect Oliver Skipp will remain part of the main set up and maybe another will move where he was, but we need three midfielders and one of them needs to be first team material.

Up front it's clear that support for Kane, Moura and Son is now a priority. There needs to be a goalscorer; a target man; someone who can play with Harry as the #10.

That's six players and guess what? Not all six are going to work out; we know that. We also know that some of them might take a year to get with the program. The problem we have is we can't really expect any more players and, let's be honest about this, we've bought about four players in five years that have pulled on a first team shirt more than as a cameo.

I figure we need to or will lose Vorm, Trippier, Rose, Wanyama, Alderweireld, Janssen, N'Koudou, Onoma, Llorente, probably Cameron-Vickers and, of course, Eriksen. I say, 'of course' because we could get £150million for him and that could get us three good players and meaning Daniel Levy might only have to spend another £100million on rotation players. We are going to struggle to find and then buy enough players without having to either keep some of what we've got or possibly doing a 'Gareth Bale' and spending a lot of money on a certain amount of unknowns - either that or Levy has to loosen the wage strings.

But that is to come (or not, maybe). Before then the biggest night in the club's history has to happen. Win or lose, I hope the boys do themselves proud.